Judah Fortgang· Sep 13, 2026
PFF's divisional-round same-game parlay picks: Tampa Bay beats Cincinnati with Cade Otton exploiting the Bengals' linebackers, Las Vegas beats Miami behind Kirk Cousins attacking a depleted Dolphins secondary, and Houston beats Buffalo with C.J. Stroud throwing effectively and Jaylin Noel benefiting from the slot matchup.
“Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield to lean on TE Cade Otton in a win against the Bengals”
published in writing · Pro Football Focus · read the original →
9 checkable claims — 6 player season numbers and 3 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
3 of 9 have settled so far, averaging 33.3 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 5 unsettled calls enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands above the room on 1 and below it on 4.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
The games in this take
- Buccaneers at Bengals 31 calls
- Bills at Texans 46 calls
- Dolphins at Raiders 34 calls
9 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksHouston TexansSep 13, 2026
Houston Texans to win
“Houston Texans: Moneyline”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 36-31
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksTampa Bay BuccaneersSep 13, 2026
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win
“Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield to lean on TE Cade Otton in a win against the Bengals ... Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Moneyline”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CIN
- score:
- 27-33
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- CIN
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksLas Vegas RaidersSep 13, 2026
Las Vegas Raiders to win
“Las Vegas Raiders rely on Kirk Cousins' arm in a win against a struggling Miami Dolphins Secondary”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- LV
- score:
- 13-27
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- LV
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- LV
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Cade Otton to record 6 receptions
“TE Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6+ receptions”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Player Season NumbersJaylin NoelHouston TexansSep 13, 2026
Jaylin Noel to record 60 receiving yards
“WR Jaylin Noel, Houston Texans: 60+ receiving yards”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Player Season NumbersC.J. StroudHouston TexansSep 13, 2026
C.J. Stroud to record 280 passing yards
“QB C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans: 280+ passing yards”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Kirk Cousins to record 260 passing yards
“QB Kirk Cousins, Las Vegas Raiders: 260+ passing yards”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Cade Otton to record 70 receiving yards
“TE Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 70+ receiving yards”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Cade Otton to record 1 receiving tds
“TE Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Anytime TD”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris BrockmanTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldHit · 100Brockman's season-preview overreactions: Fernando Mendoza becomes an Offensive Rookie of the Year finalist; Dak Prescott wins MVP and the Cowboys win the Super Bowl; Jesse Minter's Ravens win the AFC North; C.J. Stroud leads Houston to the AFC's No. 1 seed; Jonathan Taylor approaches 2,000 rushing yards; Baker Mayfield wins the NFC South, goes 12-5 and reaches the NFC title game while landing a $60 million-per-year deal; and Aaron Rodgers throws 35-plus touchdowns as the Steelers go 11-6 and win the North.
- Jon GrudenTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldHit · 100The former Buccaneers head coach predicted that Tampa Bay and Baker Mayfield are closer on a new contract than believed and that an extension will get done.
- Joel CorryTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldHit · 100The unsigned CBS Sports analysis lays out the contract it believes Tampa Bay will have to give Mayfield at minimum: a two-year extension averaging $50 million per year with $110 million in guarantees and a no-trade clause.
- Fernando Alfaro-DonisTrade and Signing Calls · Kayshon BoutteMiss · 0Argues the Raiders' weakest spot is their receiver room, expects Jalen Nailor to take a big step forward in Klint Kubiak's scheme with Kirk Cousins starting before Fernando Mendoza takes over, and suggests Las Vegas should trade a mid-round pick for Patriots receiver Kayshon Boutte, who would immediately become their top option.
- Brandon CarneyTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsMiss · 0Carney drafted a team of rookies he expects to make an immediate fantasy impact (headlined by Karnell Tate and Makai Lemon), predicted landing spots for the remaining big-name free agents, and gave way-too-early division winners, wild cards and award picks — Patriots, Chargers, Bengals, Jaguars, Eagles, Rams, Vikings and Saints as division champs with Joe Burrow as MVP.
- Danny ParkinsTrade and Signing Calls · Trey HendricksonMiss · 0Parkins predicts Fernando Mendoza goes No. 1 overall to the Raiders, Trey Hendrickson signs in Tampa, Michael Penix Jr. wins Atlanta's QB competition, Jared Wilson takes over at center in New England, Mike Evans reaches 1,000 yards, and the Bears lose Byard and Brisker.
More player season numbers
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ross JacksonPlayer Season Numbers · Tyler ShoughMiss · 4Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.
- Chris BroussardPlayer Season Numbers · Lamar JacksonMiss · 0Broussard expects Lamar Jackson to play well but not vintage — two touchdown passes and no picks — while Derrick Henry carries the load with over 100 rushing yards. He also takes the Browns to upset the Bengals and believes Myles Garrett gets at least two sacks to break the single-season record.
- Nick WrightPlayer Season Numbers · Myles GarrettHit · 100Wright picks the Steelers to beat the Ravens outright in Pittsburgh, takes Seattle over San Francisco, and thinks the Browns lose to Cincinnati even as Myles Garrett gets the sack record.
- Nick WrightPlayer Season Numbers · Myles GarrettHit · 84Nick Wright says Myles Garrett is playing at an all-time level and might reach 25 sacks this season, and among his weekly picks he expects the Bears to beat the Steelers in an ugly low-margin home win and Seattle to win comfortably at Tennessee.
- Shannon SharpePlayer Season Numbers · T.J. WattMiss · 0On a Bengals-Steelers matchup, Sharpe took the over on several player props: Ja'Marr Chase over 74.5 receiving yards, Joe Flacco over 36.5 pass attempts, and T.J. Watt over 3.5 tackles+assists, adding that Watt will get two sacks. He also predicted Rico Dowdle would make the Pro Bowl this season.
- Rich EisenPlayer Season Numbers · Micah ParsonsClose · 56Eisen made a series of picks: Micah Parsons will out-sack any two Cowboys combined (after initially leaning the other way), the NFC North is more likely to produce a Super Bowl team than the NFC East, Eagles wins will outnumber Cowboys losses, Bo Nix/Courtland Sutton will out-touchdown Cam Ward/Calvin Ridley, and Marvin Harrison Jr./James Conner will beat Kamara/Olave in yards and TDs. He also picked the AFC West order and said Deion Sanders is more likely than Bill Belichick to have a winning record.