Kayvon Thibodeaux· Jan 11, 2025
Kayvon Thibodeaux picks the Ravens to come out of the AFC and the Commanders, his dark horse, to come out of the NFC over the Eagles, whom he calls the best overall team.
“I got Commanders coming out because they got nothing to lose underdogs.”
said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
3 checkable claims — 2 conference champions and 1 surprise team call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
2 of 3 have settled so far, averaging 25 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
3 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Conference ChampionsBaltimore RavensJan 11, 2025
Baltimore Ravens to reach the Super Bowl
“Who would be either be what the chiefs of the Ravens... I'm going Ravens. I'm going Ravens.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -100
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- champions:
- PHI,KC
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Conference ChampionsWashington CommandersJan 11, 2025
Washington Commanders to reach the Super Bowl
“I got Commanders Eagles. Eagles I think are the best overall team. But I got Commanders coming out because they got nothing to lose underdogs.”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 100-50 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -50
- they picked:
- WAS
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 100
- champions:
- PHI,KC
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- yes
- Surprise Team CallsWashington CommandersJan 11, 2025
Washington Commanders to beat expectations
“NFC Uh? My dark horse right now is the Commanders.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Seth WalderTrade and Signing Calls · Kayshon BoutteMiss · 0Walder proposes five trades he believes should happen before Week 1 of the 2026 season: Jessie Bates III to the 49ers, Kayvon Thibodeaux to the Patriots, Keon Coleman to the Colts, Walker Little to the Cardinals, and Kayshon Boutte to the Commanders, where he says Boutte would immediately be Washington's No. 2 receiver.
- Garrett PodellTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsHit · 100An unsigned CBS Sports report frames Stefon Diggs as filling Washington's vacant No. 2 receiver role opposite Terry McLaurin after his reported one-year deal, expecting him in that spot in the 2026 passing game with Jayden Daniels.
- Mason CameronDepth Chart Calls · Ethan PocicMiss · 0An unsigned PFF piece ranks the NFL's top 32 centers heading into the 2026 season, with Creed Humphrey first for the fourth straight year, and names Ethan Pocic and Austin Schlottmann as the favorites to win starting center jobs in Baltimore and Tennessee.
- Bucky BrooksTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsHit · 100In a quarterback rapid-fire segment and later discussion, Brooks named starters for several clubs (Kyler Murray over JJ McCarthy in Minnesota, Shedeur Sanders in Cleveland, Tua in Atlanta, Jeremiah Love as Arizona's starting running back), called Chris Olave a No. 1 receiver, backed Stefon Diggs landing with the Commanders and Aaron Donald returning to the Rams, argued Baker Mayfield belongs among the top 15-17 quarterbacks, and published a top-five defensive tackle list topped by Jeffrey Simmons.
- Joe MarinoTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsHit · 100Marino projects DJ Moore to bounce back in Buffalo's offense with over 1,000 receiving yards (talking up around 1,200), and expects rookie cornerback Davison Igbinosun (IGB) to win a starting job opposite Christian Benford. He also thinks free agent Stefon Diggs ends up signing with Washington.
- Gregg RosenthalTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsHit · 100Rosenthal picked rookies he expects to start right away — a Steelers left tackle and Colts linebacker — said Terry McLaurin is Washington's clear No. 1 receiver, and said he wouldn't be surprised if the Commanders signed Stefon Diggs as a solid No. 2.
More conference champions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Chris BrockmanConference Champions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Brockman argues the Seahawks are at the start of a dynasty, predicting they will win multiple Super Bowls over the next five years, and that they are set up to return to the Super Bowl the following season in Los Angeles.
- Damonza ByrdConference Champions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100The co-host picks the Seahawks to beat the Rams in the NFC Championship game, and says he believes New England will win in Denver even though he is taking the Broncos with the points.
- Nick WrightConference Champions · New England PatriotsHit · 100The host picks the Rams to beat the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game and believes the winner of that game wins the Super Bowl, i.e. that this is the Rams' year; he also picks New England to win in Denver despite taking the Broncos with the points, and says Stafford is winning MVP. He calls Sean McVay the second-best coach in the NFL.
- Nick WrightConference Champions · Denver BroncosClose · 50Wright picked the Broncos to beat the Patriots in a low-scoring AFC Championship game (17-16), said Sean Payton would coach Denver to the Super Bowl, picked the Rams to win outright in Seattle 31-20, believes the winner of the NFC game wins the Super Bowl with the Rams the better team, and expects Matt Stafford to be named league MVP.
- AJ HawkConference Champions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 50Hawk picked the Patriots to win in Denver despite liking Stidham and the Broncos defense, and in the NFC he stuck with the Rams, saying Stafford gets to the Super Bowl.
- Derek MurphyConference Champions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Bone said after watching film that Seattle will handle the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, and that the Seahawks are going to the Super Bowl.