Gregg Rosenthal · Sep 12, 2025

Rosenthal, running an "eyeball test" model, sides with underdogs: he'd take Jacksonville straight up over Cincinnati, has New England beating Miami, and picks his newly adopted Jets to beat the Bills outright, while still standing by his preseason Lions Super Bowl pick and Jets as a seventh seed. He also agreed with Cynthia's Broncos pick over the Colts.

“I'm going to pick this game straight up for the Jaguars.”

said on air or in an interview · read the original →

6 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Game Outcome PicksSep 12, 2025
“I'm with you on this one. I struggled with it. The heart of it all. Likes the cult story... But ultimately I agreed with every single point that you made”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-194 skill
How this was scored
won:
IND
score:
28-29
skill:
-194
they picked:
DEN
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
naive pick:
IND
difficulty:
1.94
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
17
Think this is wrong?
Playoff PicksSep 12, 2025
“I had them going to the playoffs as my seventh seed.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-194 skill
How this was scored
team:
NYJ
skill:
-194
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
naive said:
false
difficulty:
1.94
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
false
weeks left when called:
17
Think this is wrong?
Game Outcome PicksSep 12, 2025
“I'm going to pick this game straight up for the Jaguars on game debut where you don't have to do that here... I'm taking the Jaguars plus three and a half.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-194 skill
How this was scored
won:
CIN
score:
27-31
skill:
-194
they picked:
JAX
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
naive pick:
CIN
difficulty:
1.94
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
17
Think this is wrong?
Super Bowl PicksSep 12, 2025
“It was me who picked the Lions to the super Bowl, and I'm feeling a little uneasy.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
they picked:
DET
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
champion:
SEA
runner up:
NE
naive pick:
PHI
difficulty:
1.94
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
17
Think this is wrong?
Game Outcome PicksSep 12, 2025
“I mean I have New England winning.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Game Outcome PicksSep 12, 2025
“Now, yes, I am taking them to win this game, which is a desperate pick in week two.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?