Gregg Rosenthal· Sep 12, 2025
Rosenthal, running an "eyeball test" model, sides with underdogs: he'd take Jacksonville straight up over Cincinnati, has New England beating Miami, and picks his newly adopted Jets to beat the Bills outright, while still standing by his preseason Lions Super Bowl pick and Jets as a seventh seed. He also agreed with Cynthia's Broncos pick over the Colts.
“I'm going to pick this game straight up for the Jaguars.”
said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
6 checkable claims — 4 game outcome picks, 1 playoff pick and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 6 have settled, averaging 16.7 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
6 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksNew York JetsSep 12, 2025
New York Jets to beat Bills
“Now, yes, I am taking them to win this game, which is a desperate pick in week two.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 30-10
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NYJ
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- NYJ
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Game Outcome PicksNew England PatriotsSep 12, 2025
New England Patriots to beat Miami
“I mean I have New England winning.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+194 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NE
- score:
- 33-27
- skill:
- 194
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- MIA
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Game Outcome PicksDenver BroncosSep 12, 2025
Denver Broncos to beat Colts
“I'm with you on this one. I struggled with it. The heart of it all. Likes the cult story... But ultimately I agreed with every single point that you made”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-194 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- IND
- score:
- 28-29
- skill:
- -194
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- IND
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Playoff PicksNew York JetsSep 12, 2025
New York Jets to make the playoffs
“I had them going to the playoffs as my seventh seed.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-194 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NYJ
- skill:
- -194
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Game Outcome PicksJacksonville JaguarsSep 12, 2025
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Bengals
“I'm going to pick this game straight up for the Jaguars on game debut where you don't have to do that here... I'm taking the Jaguars plus three and a half.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-194 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CIN
- score:
- 27-31
- skill:
- -194
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- CIN
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Super Bowl PicksDetroit LionsSep 12, 2025
Detroit Lions to win the Super Bowl
“It was me who picked the Lions to the super Bowl, and I'm feeling a little uneasy.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champion:
- SEA
- runner up:
- NE
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
What others said about the same people
- Nick WrightGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsMiss · 0Amid a slate of against-the-spread picks, Wright makes a few outright calls: Jacksonville beats Denver straight up, Carolina wins at Atlanta, and he reiterates that he picked Denver to make the playoffs despite his concerns after their Week 1 loss. He also expects Ladd McConkie to sit out the Chargers' game.
- Carter BahnsScore Predictions · Jacksonville JaguarsClose · 50He picks Jacksonville to win in Denver, arguing the market still undervalues the Jaguars and that the Broncos' offense under new play-caller Davis Webb won't score enough to keep pace.
- Nick WrightGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsMiss · 0Amid his Week 2 spread picks, Wright made a few straight-up calls: Jacksonville wins outright at Denver, Carolina wins at Atlanta, and he'd be stunned if Kansas City lost to Indianapolis. He also expected Zay Flowers and Ladd McConkie to sit out with injuries.
- Danny ParkinsGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsMiss · 0Parkins picked the Giants to beat the Rams outright, backed Jacksonville over Denver, Cincinnati over Houston and Chicago over Minnesota in the chips segment, endorsed Buffalo as the AFC's Super Bowl representative, and predicted Deshaun Watson has started his last NFL game.
- Greg JenningsGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosHit · 100Jennings put the Cardinals up as his upset alert over Seattle, backed the Texans over Cincinnati and the Bears over Minnesota with chips, put two chips on Denver beating Jacksonville, and wrote a headline of the Packers beating the Jets; he also called the Bengals a playoff team and the Chiefs winners over Indianapolis.
- Nick WrightGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsMiss · 0Wright stuck by his preseason call of a 12-5 Bills team that wins its division, picked the Jaguars to beat Denver outright, leaned Texans over Cincinnati, still has Atlanta as his deep sleeper, counts New England among his 14 playoff teams, and recalled pegging Washington for a 5-12 or 6-11 year with a bottom-six defense.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Michael HanichGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Hanich argues the Week 2 road game at Arizona is not a true trap game, citing Seattle's long winning streak in the series, Mike Macdonald's preparation and injuries in the Cardinals' secondary, and rates his confidence in the Seahawks at 7. He also suggests safety Nick Emmanwori may miss a second straight game.
- Seth WalderGame Outcome Picks · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Picks the Panthers to beat the Falcons in Atlanta.
- Eric MoodyGame Outcome Picks · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Picks the Panthers to beat the Falcons in Atlanta.
- Pamela MaldonadoGame Outcome Picks · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Picks the Panthers to beat the Falcons in Atlanta.
- John MiddlekauffGame Outcome Picks · Philadelphia EaglesHit · 100In a Week 2 preview, Middlekauff argued Matt LaFleur is under enormous pressure in Green Bay, predicted blowout wins for the 49ers over Miami and the Eagles over Tennessee, and offered season win-total views on the Saints, Buccaneers, Texans and Jaguars while backing Dallas to win the NFC East.
- Nick WrightGame Outcome Picks · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Amid a slate of against-the-spread picks, Wright makes a few outright calls: Jacksonville beats Denver straight up, Carolina wins at Atlanta, and he reiterates that he picked Denver to make the playoffs despite his concerns after their Week 1 loss. He also expects Ladd McConkie to sit out the Chargers' game.