Chris Brockman· Feb 23, 2026
Brockman argued Jaxon Smith-Njigba is already the best receiver in the NFL and deserves to be the highest paid, called his shot that three quarterbacks (Mendoza, Ty Simpson, Carson Beck) go in the first round with Mendoza first overall, and suggested New England is headed for a 7-10 season.
“Three quarterbacks are going in the first round.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
5 checkable claims — 3 mock draft picks, 1 positional finishe and 1 season win total — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 64.8 out of 100, against 35 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where this call stands in the room
Fernando Mendoza · 2025 season · overall pick7 calls from 6 pundits between 1 overall pick and 1 overall pick. Chris Brockman said 1 overall pick. the room's median is 1 overall pick. what happened: 1 overall pick
Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question, before the answer existed. The bar is what actually happened. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksCarson BeckFeb 23, 2026
Carson Beck to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
“You said Ty Simpson and Carson Beck? ... I am gonna call my shot... It is those three quarterbacks.”
Miss · 24Scored 23.94a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Carson Beck
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 23.94
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 65
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 23.94
- predicted pick:
- first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Positional FinishesJaxon Smith-NjigbaFeb 23, 2026
Jaxon Smith-Njigba to finish top 1 at his position, by receiving yards
“JSN is the best wide receiver in the NFL and should be the highest paid at the position.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 25+75 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 75
- player:
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 25
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- receiving yards
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 10
- actual finish:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- predicted finish:
- 1
- Mock Draft PicksFernando MendozaFeb 23, 2026
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“And we know he's going first. We know he's going number one.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksTy SimpsonFeb 23, 2026
Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
“We're gonna come out of the combine thinking not one, not two. Three quarterbacks are going in the first round... You said Ty Simpson and Carson Beck?... I am gonna call my shot... It is those three quarterbacks.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Ty Simpson
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Season Win TotalsNew England PatriotsFeb 23, 2026
New England Patriots to finish with 7 wins
“I've seen some people in New England are already freaking out about a seven and ten season. That's how bad it's gonna be... next year with this with new, you know, the schedule.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NE
- naive:
- 6.25
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 14
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
What others said about the same people
- Ethan HurwitzRoster Spot Calls · Jeremiah Pharms Jr.Miss · 0Hurwitz writes that the elevations of Jeremiah Pharms Jr. and Mike Brown likely mean Leonard Taylor III stays a healthy scratch and Joshua Farmer could be one too for the Week 3 game at Jacksonville, and that both elevated players will revert to the practice squad after Sunday.
- Ethan HurwitzRoster Spot Calls · Christian GonzalezHit · 100Hurwitz says several Patriots starting jobs and roster spots are already settled — Drake Maye at QB with Jared Wilson at center, A.J. Brown and Hunter Henry as pass-catchers, and Christian Gonzalez, Milton Williams and Kevin Byard locked into roster spots. Among camp standouts, he pegs undrafted rookie Cameron Dorner as roughly the eighth receiver on a roster likely keeping seven, and says Channing Canada is a strong practice squad candidate if he doesn't make the 53.
- Jeremy BrenerRoster Spot Calls · Jaxon Smith-NjigbaHit · 100Brener projects Seattle's wide receiver room to include Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp, Rashid Shaheed, Tory Horton, Jake Bobo and rookie Emmanuel Henderson Jr. on the 53-man roster, leaving Montorie Foster Jr. fighting for a spot despite a strong camp and preseason showing.
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Efton Chism IIIHit · 100An unsigned PFF preseason recap makes numerous depth-chart, roster and usage projections across the league, based on Week 3 preseason playing time — including Roman Wilson winning Pittsburgh's third receiver job, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Charlie Kolar as the Chargers' top tight end, and Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2.
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Kyle WilliamsHit · 100An unsigned PFF fantasy preseason recap makes a series of depth-chart and roster-spot calls: Roman Wilson wins the Steelers' third receiver job over Germie Bernard, Robert Tonyan makes Pittsburgh's roster as the third tight end, Kyle Williams and Efton Chism III stick in New England, Mike Washington Jr. is the Raiders' primary backup back, Jalen Nailor stays a Raiders starter, Kaelon Black leads the 49ers' backup running back competition, and Charlie Kolar is the Chargers' top tight end with top-12 fantasy upside.
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Kyle WilliamsHit · 100PFF's preseason fantasy recap makes a large number of depth-chart, role and fantasy-value calls across the league, including Chig Okonkwo as a top sleeper tight end, Tre Tucker as the Raiders' top receiver, and various backfield hierarchies.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Lance ZierleinMock Draft Picks · Jeremiyah LoveHit · 100Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 92Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day.
- Bucky BrooksMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 81In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13.