Skip to main content
MissedTakes
Menu

Chad Millman· Sep 11, 2026

Millman backed several week one sides outright: Miami to beat the Raiders straight up, the Jets over the Titans, an underdog money line parlay of Houston and the Giants, and a favorites money line parlay of Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Detroit. He also stands by his preseason take that Drake Maye is a top-five NFL quarterback.

I actually played Miami to win outright. I didn't even bother with the number.

said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →

8 checkable claims — 7 game outcome picks and 1 positional finishe — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 9 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

5 of 8 have settled so far, averaging 60 out of 100, against 60 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

The games in this take

8 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Miami Dolphins to win

    I actually played Miami to win outright. I didn't even bother with the number.

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    LV
    score:
    13-27
    skill:
    -200
    they picked:
    MIA
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    LV
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Pittsburgh Steelers to win

    we did take the Steelers money line, minus 178 for our Discord group

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    PIT
    score:
    13-20
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    PIT
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    PIT
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Houston Texans to win

    Our underdog money line parlay, we're going to do Houston and the New York. Giants.

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    BUF
    score:
    36-31
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    HOU
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    HOU
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • New York Jets to win

    I'll take the New York jets jets. I'm going to, I'll live with it. I'll live with the shame.

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    NYJ
    score:
    23-10
    skill:
    200
    they picked:
    NYJ
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    TEN
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • New York Giants to win

    Our underdog money line parlay, we're going to do Houston and the New York. Giants.

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    NYG
    score:
    20-28
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    NYG
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    NYG
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Detroit Lions to win

    So our favorite parlay is going to be Pittsburgh. It's going to be Philly and it's going to be Detroit.

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Drake Maye to finish top 5 at his position, by rushing yards

    he looked like he was Drake May. top five quarterback in the NFL

    Too vague to check — we could not tell what would count as right.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Philadelphia Eagles to win

    So our favorite parlay is going to be Pittsburgh. It's going to be Philly and it's going to be Detroit.

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Discussed alongside these

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span of it for attribution — we never republish their article. If we have misread you, tell us and we will look at it.