Mike Harmon· Jan 2, 2026
Harmon gave his Week 18 fantasy rankings — top five quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers — plus lists of 'hot plays,' 'cold sores' (players to avoid) and 'ninjas' (sneaky plays), and said Trevor Lawrence would land around a top-four fantasy quarterback finish for the season.
“So I'm gonna take Dak Prescott in that five spot.”
said on air or in an interview · Fox Sports Radio (podcast) · read the original →
5 checkable claims — 3 fantasy rankings, 1 depth chart call and 1 positional finishe — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 89.3 out of 100, against 48.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Fantasy RankingsJan 2, 2026
“Some of the usual suspects, Pooka Nakoua... Jamar Chase... How about Alan raw Sam Brown against the Bears... JSN going up against San Francisco... And then you got Nico Collins going up against the Indianapolis”
Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 50+31.8 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- 31.8
- placed:
- 5
- season:
- 2025
- players:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 80
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- WR 5: 80
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 0
- weeks left when called:
- 1
- Fantasy RankingsJan 2, 2026
“Let's get into your top five quarterbacks for Week eighteen... Drake May going up against Miami... Trevor Lawrence going up against Tennessee... Lamar Jackson... Brock Purdy going up against Seattle... So I'm gonna take Dak Prescott in that five spot.”
Hit · 85Scored 85a naive guess scored 50+37.1 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- 37.1
- placed:
- 5
- season:
- 2025
- players:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 85
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- QB 5: 85
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 0
- weeks left when called:
- 1
Trey Lance to be 1st on the depth chart
“Operations shutdown, Trey Lance looks like he's gonna be the starter.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 91.67+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- LAC
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Trey Lance
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 3
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 1
Trevor Lawrence to finish top 4 at his position, by fantasy points
“But there's Trevor Lawrence all the way up towards a top four fantasy finish for the year.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+106 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 106
- player:
- Trevor Lawrence
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 27
- actual finish:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 1
- predicted finish:
- 4
- Fantasy RankingsJan 2, 2026
“CMC going up against Seattle... Derreck Henry against Pittsburgh... John Robinson going up against New Orleans... RJ. Harvey going up against the Chargers... and then Travis etn the aforementioned he gets the number five spot here”
Hit · 90Scored 90a naive guess scored 50+42.4 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- 42.4
- placed:
- 5
- season:
- 2025
- players:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 90
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- RB 5: 90
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 0
- weeks left when called:
- 1
What others said about the same people
- Thomas MartinezRoster Spot Calls · Patrick HerbertMiss · 0Martinez projects the Chargers' starting lineups on offense and defense for their Week 3 game at Buffalo, with injuries forcing several changes — Oronde Gadsden II at tight end, Trevor Penning at left guard, Jamaree Caldwell at defensive tackle and RJ Mickens at safety — while expecting Ladd McConkey to play and Marquez Valdez-Scantling to debut.
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Ameer AbdullahHit · 100An unsigned PFF preseason recap makes numerous depth-chart, roster and usage projections across the league, based on Week 3 preseason playing time — including Roman Wilson winning Pittsburgh's third receiver job, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Charlie Kolar as the Chargers' top tight end, and Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2.
- John ShipleyRoster Spot Calls · Branson CombsHit · 100Shipley's training camp winners and losers: he picks Parker Washington to lead the Jaguars in receiving yards, sees B.J. Green winning the DE3 job, Jarrian Jones earning a Week 1 starting job, and Matt Dickerson, Branson Combs and Chuma Edoga making the roster, while Quintin Morris is a bubble player behind two rookie tight ends.
- John ShipleyRoster Spot Calls · Albert RegisHit · 100Shipley argues rookie third-round defensive tackle Albert Regis deserves tempered expectations, projecting him to make the 53-man roster but rank fifth among Jacksonville's interior defensive linemen, behind Matt Dickerson and Ruke Orhorhoro in snaps.
- John ShipleyRoster Spot Calls · Jack KiserMiss · 0Shipley projects a full 16-player (plus one international/exemption spot) Jaguars practice squad for 2026, naming specific players at each position he expects to land there.
- Carter BahnsRoster Spot Calls · Trevor PenningMiss · 0A CBS Sports piece names 20 notable veterans it considers at risk of being cut before the 53-man roster deadline, with several pegged for the practice squad or outright release, and also sketches a few depth-chart pecking orders (Titans QBs, Panthers tight ends, Texans receivers, Eagles backfield).
More fantasy rankings
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Rich HribarFantasy RankingsClose · 77Hribar published his post-NFL Draft top-60 rookie fantasy rankings for the 2020 season, with Clyde Edwards-Helaire vaulting to No. 1 ahead of Jonathan Taylor and J.K. Dobbins.
- Marcas GrantFantasy RankingsMiss · 25Grant says De'Von Achane deserves to be a top-three pick in fantasy drafts next season, keeps Breece Hall as the Jets' clear RB1 over Isaiah Davis, and lists his five league winners for the fantasy semifinals with Saquon Barkley on top. He also picks Josh Allen as the week's top quarterback and Jaxon Smith-Njigba as the top wide receiver.
- Andrew EricksonFantasy RankingsClose · 75Erickson laid out his own early 2026 quarterback and tight end ranks — Justin Herbert QB6, Jalen Hurts QB9, Jordan Love QB13, Baker Mayfield QB14, Kyler Murray QB19, Sam Darnold QB23; Tucker Kraft TE8, Isaiah Likely TE12, Ronde Gadsden TE13 — and predicted Kyler Murray starts somewhere in 2026 and Mike Evans stays in Tampa Bay.
- Jake CielyFantasy RankingsClose · 63Sealey gave his early 2026 quarterback ranks — Allen, Lamar, May and Daniels as his top four, Joe Burrow sixth, Daniel Jones 17th, Justin Herbert 10th, C.J. Stroud 25th and Sam Darnold 26th — plus tight ends with Isaiah Likely 13th and Dalton Kincaid down at 16.
- Jake CielyFantasy RankingsHit · 93Seely gives his own early 2026 running back board — Bijan and Gibbs on top, McCaffrey third (seventh overall), Kyren Williams tenth, Jeanty 11th and Chase Brown 12th — while ranking Skattebo, Dowdle, Pollard, Hubbard and Tucker below consensus. He also insists Kyren Williams remains a top-ten back, expects Skattebo to lead the Giants backfield and expects Rico Dowdle to leave Carolina.
- Joe PisapiaFantasy RankingsClose · 71Joe Pisapia's 2026 first round is receiver-heavy, starting with Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Ja'Marr Chase, insisting Amon-Ra St. Brown belongs in the top five, keeping Justin Jefferson in round one, and dropping Christian McCaffrey to 12. He also sees Omarion Hampton as a value who will be a top-10 pick a year later.