Gilberto Manzano· Sep 9, 2026
Manzano's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games.
published in writing · Sports Illustrated · read the original →
16 checkable claims — 16 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 16 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 16 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 62.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
The games in this take
- Patriots at Seahawks 34 calls
- 49ers at Rams 37 calls
- Ravens at Colts 24 calls
- Browns at Jaguars 26 calls
- Falcons at Steelers 34 calls
- Jets at Titans 25 calls
- Saints at Lions 22 calls
- Buccaneers at Bengals 31 calls
- Bears at Panthers 28 calls
- Bills at Texans 46 calls
- Cardinals at Chargers 23 calls
- Commanders at Eagles 32 calls
- Packers at Vikings 41 calls
- Dolphins at Raiders 48 calls
- Cowboys at Giants 42 calls
- Broncos at Chiefs 45 calls
16 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksDenver BroncosSep 9, 2026
Denver Broncos to win
“Broncos at Chiefs — Gilberto Manzano: Broncos”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- KC
- score:
- 10-31
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksIndianapolis ColtsSep 9, 2026
Indianapolis Colts to win
“Ravens at Colts — Gilberto Manzano: Colts”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BAL
- score:
- 41-23
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- IND
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- IND
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksPittsburgh SteelersSep 9, 2026
Pittsburgh Steelers to win
“Falcons at Steelers — Gilberto Manzano: Steelers”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- PIT
- score:
- 13-20
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- PIT
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- PIT
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksChicago BearsSep 9, 2026
Chicago Bears to win
“Bears at Panthers — Gilberto Manzano: Bears”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CHI
- score:
- 59-37
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- CAR
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksJacksonville JaguarsSep 9, 2026
Jacksonville Jaguars to win
“Browns at Jaguars — Gilberto Manzano: Jaguars”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- JAX
- score:
- 10-34
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- JAX
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksHouston TexansSep 9, 2026
Houston Texans to win
“Bills at Texans — Gilberto Manzano: Texans”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 36-31
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksLas Vegas RaidersSep 9, 2026
Las Vegas Raiders to win
“Dolphins at Raiders — Gilberto Manzano: Raiders”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- LV
- score:
- 13-27
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- LV
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- LV
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksMinnesota VikingsSep 9, 2026
Minnesota Vikings to win
“Packers at Vikings — Gilberto Manzano: Vikings”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- MIN
- score:
- 22-39
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- MIN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- MIN
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksPhiladelphia EaglesSep 9, 2026
Philadelphia Eagles to win
“Commanders at Eagles — Gilberto Manzano: Eagles”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- PHI
- score:
- 22-24
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- PHI
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles ChargersSep 9, 2026
Los Angeles Chargers to win
“Cardinals at Chargers — Gilberto Manzano: Chargers”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- ARI
- score:
- 26-14
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- LAC
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- LAC
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksDallas CowboysSep 9, 2026
Dallas Cowboys to win
“Cowboys at Giants — Gilberto Manzano: Cowboys”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NYG
- score:
- 20-28
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- DAL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NYG
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksTennessee TitansSep 9, 2026
Tennessee Titans to win
“Jets at Titans — Gilberto Manzano: Titans”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NYJ
- score:
- 23-10
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- TEN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- TEN
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksDetroit LionsSep 9, 2026
Detroit Lions to win
“Saints at Lions — Gilberto Manzano: Lions”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DET
- score:
- 30-31
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- DET
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksTampa Bay BuccaneersSep 9, 2026
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win
“Buccaneers at Bengals — Gilberto Manzano: Buccaneers”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CIN
- score:
- 27-33
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- CIN
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles RamsSep 9, 2026
Los Angeles Rams to win
“49ers vs. Rams — Gilberto Manzano: Rams”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- SF
- score:
- 27-7
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- LAR
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksSeattle SeahawksSep 9, 2026
Seattle Seahawks to win
“Patriots at Seahawks — Gilberto Manzano: Seahawks”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- SEA
- score:
- 10-13
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- SEA
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
What others said about the same people
- Randy GurziDepth Chart Calls · Jadarian PriceHit · 100Gurzi suggests the Seahawks could sign three free agents — safety Donovan Wilson, guard Kevin Zeitler, and running back Kareem Hunt — if weaknesses show up after Week 1. He also notes Trevon Diggs starting on the practice squad and describes Seattle's projected backfield roles.
- Warren SharpDepth Chart Calls · Kirk CousinsHit · 100Sharp argues Raiders rookie No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza is not ready to play, predicting he won't start Week 1 or Week 2 and that Kirk Cousins will be the Week 1 starter, with Mendoza sitting behind him for a long stretch.
- Carter BahnsDepth Chart Calls · Kirk CousinsHit · 100The newsletter says Shedeur Sanders' preseason Week 2 start may have won him the Browns' starting quarterback job over Deshaun Watson, and that Kirk Cousins will lead the Raiders' offense in Week 1. It also asserts Florida is the best college basketball team heading into 2026-27.
- Tyler SullivanDepth Chart Calls · Kirk CousinsHit · 100An unsigned preseason overreaction piece: Kirk Cousins, not rookie Fernando Mendoza, will start Week 1 for the Raiders; 49ers second-rounder De'Zhaun Stribling could be the most productive rookie receiver in 2026 and the team's top target; Cam Ward's rough preseason isn't a real problem; Drew Allar isn't yet Pittsburgh's 2027 starter; and D.J. Moore will boost Buffalo's offense.
- John BreechDepth Chart Calls · Kirk CousinsHit · 100In a preseason Week 1 winners-and-losers piece, CBS Sports says Bengals receiver Dohnte Meyers is now likely to make the roster, suggests fantasy drafters consider 49ers rookie De'Zhaun Stribling, expects Kirk Cousins rather than rookie Fernando Mendoza to start Week 1 for the Raiders, and suggests Anthony Richardson has moved ahead of Riley Leonard for the Colts' backup quarterback job.
- Carter BahnsDepth Chart Calls · Kirk CousinsHit · 100Unsigned piece states Kirk Cousins, who started the Raiders' preseason opener, will also be the Week 1 starting quarterback, while suggesting rookie No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza could eventually take the job if Las Vegas falls out of contention.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- John PluymGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Pluym's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games.
- Matt VerderameGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Verderame's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games.
- Mike KadlickGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Kadlick's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games.
- Nick WrightGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Nick Wright lays out his 2026 season picks: all eight division winners, the Ravens as the AFC's No. 1 seed with 13 wins and a 6-0 start, Chiefs and Eagles in the Super Bowl with Kansas City winning, plus value picks on the Seahawks and Eagles to win the NFC.
- Richard ShermanGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Sherman previewed the AFC, picking the Bills, Chiefs, Ravens and Texans as division winners with Denver, New England and Jacksonville as wild cards, called several individual early-season games, and predicted a big year for Travis Hunter at cornerback.
- Nick WrightGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Nick Wright locked in his preseason picks: the Ravens as the AFC's No. 1 seed with 13 wins, eight division winners, Eagles/Broncos/Chiefs to make the playoffs, Eagles and Seahawks to come out of the NFC, and a Chiefs win over the Eagles in the Super Bowl.