Dan Patrick
Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.
100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.
Graded calls · 18
“is somebody going to go all in in the first, round which they probably will For Ty? Simpson, okay happens every single. Year”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Ty Simpson
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
“I say to Malik Willis, come on in here you go, job's yours... And I don't think JJ McCarthy is the answer, at least not yet.”
Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 100-8.33 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- GB
- skill:
- -8.33
- player:
- Malik Willis
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- passing yards
- naive basis:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
“I would put three teams in there. I mean, I still think the Rams are in that top five in the NFC... I would say Lions, Packers, Rams, Eagles. That'd be my top my top four.”
Scored 10a naive guess scored 10+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 10
- baseline:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 15
“Tampa Bay could put up twelve wins, thirteen wins now all of a sudden they got home field advantage.”
Scored 20a naive guess scored 75-100.65 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- TB
- naive:
- 9.25
- skill:
- -100.65
- what happened:
- 8
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 20
- baseline:
- 75
- predicted:
- 12
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 15
“Now I have the Lions winning the super Bowl, but after I what Green Bay did to them.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champion:
- SEA
- runner up:
- NE
- naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 15
- A caller identified only as James from Virginia said the Ravens will make the playoffs without a doubt.Sep 23, 2025
“I think the ratings gonna make the playoffs without a doubt. Man, I don't see any reason why not.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- BAL
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- naive said:
- true
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made playoffs:
- false
- weeks left when called:
- 15
“He was number one in contested catches the last five years. He's going to give you a thousand yards.”
Scored 16.4a naive guess scored 61.03-89.25 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 722.87
- skill:
- -89.25
- what happened:
- 582
- player:
- Terry McLaurin
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 16.4
- baseline:
- 61.03
- predicted:
- 1000
- statistic:
- receiving_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 1096
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 349.73
- zero at percent out:
- 50
“More than likely cam Ward will go first and then Shadoor Sanders after that.”
Scored 25a naive guess scored 37.51-12.51 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- naming one of the 14 at random averages 37.51
- skill:
- -12.51
- player:
- Shedeur Sanders
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 25
- baseline:
- 37.51
- position:
- quarterback
- class size:
- 14
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 6
- predicted order:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
“More than likely cam Ward will go first and then Shadoor Sanders after that.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 24.2+75.8 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- naming one of the 14 at random averages 24.2
- skill:
- 75.8
- player:
- Cam Ward
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 24.2
- position:
- quarterback
- class size:
- 14
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 1
- predicted order:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
“I look forward to seeing Jackson Dart, who I think is the first round talent at quarterback. I think he's underrated talent now, might go at the end of first round, maybe second round, third round.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Jaxson Dart
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 25
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- might go at the end of first round, maybe second round, third round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
“You might pass up on Mason Graham out of Michigan, who might be a top five player”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Mason Graham
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- top five player (picks 1–5)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Picked the Chiefs to complete the three-peat, beating the Eagles 31-30, with Patrick Mahomes as MVP.Feb 7, 2025
“Patrick Mahomes MV pick”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Lamar Jackson, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Patrick Mahomes
- season:
- 2024
- winner:
- Josh Allen
- correct:
- false
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Picked the Chiefs to complete the three-peat, beating the Eagles 31-30, with Patrick Mahomes as MVP.Feb 7, 2025
“final score thirty one to thirty. Yeah, thirty one thirty”
Scored 9.52a naive guess scored 62.56-53.04 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 22-40
- skill:
- -53.04
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 9.52
- baseline:
- 62.56
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- naive home margin:
- 2.28
- predicted margin:
- 1
- Picked the Chiefs to complete the three-peat, beating the Eagles 31-30, with Patrick Mahomes as MVP.Feb 7, 2025
“ThReD Pete Chiefs again. Patrick Mahomes MV pick final score thirty one to thirty.”
Scored 50a naive guess scored 50+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 50
- champion:
- PHI
- runner up:
- KC
- naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
“so you have Lamar ahead of Alan right now... So you have you have that flipped. / Yes with a sigh.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 50-50 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- -50
- placed:
- 2
- season:
- 2024
- players:
- 3
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- QB 2: 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
“I think Lamar's gonna win.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Lamar Jackson, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- e5df2248-23d6-421e-9f77-d6c88c0dce10
- season:
- 2024
- winner:
- Josh Allen
- correct:
- false
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
“I think it should be a consensus number one. I think it's Stafford... I think I might be Daniel's over and golf... if you're ranking these quarterbacks being pure, I think Hurts would be last.”
Scored 40a naive guess scored 50-10 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- -10
- placed:
- 4
- season:
- 2024
- players:
- 4
- accuracy:
- 40
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- QB 4: 40
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 0
- weeks left when called:
- 0
“It should be Chiefs and Lions roll and get ready for the next step.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- WAS
- score:
- 45-31
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- naive pick:
- DET
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0