Picked the Chiefs to complete the three-peat, beating the Eagles 31-30, with Patrick Mahomes as MVP.

3 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

• Super Bowl PicksFeb 7, 2025

  “ThReD Pete Chiefs again. Patrick Mahomes MV pick final score thirty one to thirty.”

  Scored 50a naive guess scored 50+0 skill
  How this was scored

  skill:

  0

  they picked:

  KC

  season:

  2024

  accuracy:

  50

  baseline:

  50

  champion:

  PHI

  runner up:

  KC

  naive pick:

  KC

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  weeks left when called:

  0

  Think this is wrong?

• Score PredictionsFeb 7, 2025

  “final score thirty one to thirty. Yeah, thirty one thirty”

  Scored 9.52a naive guess scored 62.56-53.04 skill
  How this was scored

  score:

  22-40

  skill:

  -53.04

  they picked:

  KC

  season:

  2024

  accuracy:

  9.52

  baseline:

  62.56

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  actual margin:

  18

  weeks left when called:

  0

  naive home margin:

  2.28

  predicted margin:

  1

  Think this is wrong?

• Award PicksFeb 7, 2025

  “Patrick Mahomes MV pick”

  Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
  How this was scored

  award:

  mvp

  naive:

  the naive pick was Lamar Jackson, who won it the year before

  skill:

  0

  player:

  Patrick Mahomes

  season:

  2024

  winner:

  Josh Allen

  correct:

  false

  accuracy:

  0

  baseline:

  0

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  weeks left when called:

  0

  Think this is wrong?