Dan Patrick· Sep 23, 2025
Dan Patrick named his top four teams in the NFC in order (Lions, Packers, Rams, Eagles), said he still has the Lions winning the Super Bowl while naming Kansas City as his AFC favorite, floated Tampa Bay reaching 12-13 wins and home-field advantage, and expects Notre Dame to run the table.
“I would say Lions, Packers, Rams, Eagles. That'd be my top my top four.”
said on air or in an interview · The Dan Patrick Show (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
4 checkable claims — 1 conference champion, 1 power ranking, 1 season win total and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 4 have settled, averaging 7.5 out of 100, against 21.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
4 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Conference ChampionsKansas City ChiefsSep 23, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl
“who would you be your favorites of the NFC and AFC... Well, I'm not going to change... I still believe in Kansas City proof of concept and I believe in the Lions as well.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE,SEA
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 15
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Power RankingsSep 23, 2025
“I would put three teams in there. I mean, I still think the Rams are in that top five in the NFC... I would say Lions, Packers, Rams, Eagles. That'd be my top my top four.”
Miss · 10Scored 10a naive guess scored 10+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 10
- baseline:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 15
- Super Bowl PicksDetroit LionsSep 23, 2025
Detroit Lions to win the Super Bowl
“Now I have the Lions winning the super Bowl, but after I what Green Bay did to them.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champion:
- SEA
- runner up:
- NE
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 15
- Season Win TotalsTampa Bay BuccaneersSep 23, 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to finish with 12 wins
“Tampa Bay could put up twelve wins, thirteen wins now all of a sudden they got home field advantage.”
Miss · 20Scored 20a naive guess scored 75-100.65 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- TB
- naive:
- 9.25
- skill:
- -100.65
- what happened:
- 8
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 20
- baseline:
- 75
- predicted:
- 12
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 15
What others said about the same people
- Joel CorryTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldMiss · 0The unsigned CBS Sports analysis lays out the contract it believes Tampa Bay will have to give Mayfield at minimum: a two-year extension averaging $50 million per year with $110 million in guarantees and a no-trade clause.
- Bucky BrooksMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 81In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13.
- Danny ParkinsTrade and Signing Calls · Trey HendricksonMiss · 0Parkins predicts Fernando Mendoza goes No. 1 overall to the Raiders, Trey Hendrickson signs in Tampa, Michael Penix Jr. wins Atlanta's QB competition, Jared Wilson takes over at center in New England, Mike Evans reaches 1,000 yards, and the Bears lose Byard and Brisker.
- Steve MenschMock Draft Picks · Caleb LomuClose · 62Making the even-numbered picks in the mock, he sent Arvell Reese to the Jets at No. 2, Spencer Fano to the Giants at 5, Jordan Tyson to the Saints at 8, a Tennessee cornerback to Miami at 11, Keldric Faulk to Baltimore at 14, Akheem Mesidor to Dallas at 20, Kenyon Sadiq to Philadelphia at 23, Caleb Banks to Buffalo at 26, Ty Simpson to the Rams at 29 and Chris Johnson to Seattle at 32, plus Caleb Lomu to Detroit at 17.
- Pat FitzmauriceMock Draft Picks · Cashius HowellMiss · 32Making a third of the mock's picks, he gave Reuben Bain to Arizona at 3, Francis Mauinoa to Cleveland at 6, Jeremiah Love to Kansas City at 9, Mansoor Delane to Dallas at 12, Cassius Howell to Tampa Bay at 15, Avieon Terrell to Minnesota at 18, Makai Lemon to Pittsburgh at 21, KC Concepcion to Cleveland at 24, Kadyn Proctor to San Francisco at 27 and TJ Parker to New England at 30.
- Chris RoseTrade and Signing Calls · Chase YoungMiss · 0Hosting a mock free-agency draft, Rose predicted destinations for Nick Bolton, Carlton Davis, Russell Wilson, Malcolm Koonce, Stefon Diggs, Byron Murphy, Chase Young and Jacoby Brissett, plus Justin Fields returning to Pittsburgh, Ronnie Stanley leaving Baltimore, and the Browns trading up to No. 1 to take Cam Ward.
More conference champions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Chris BrockmanConference Champions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Brockman argues the Seahawks are at the start of a dynasty, predicting they will win multiple Super Bowls over the next five years, and that they are set up to return to the Super Bowl the following season in Los Angeles.
- Damonza ByrdConference Champions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100The co-host picks the Seahawks to beat the Rams in the NFC Championship game, and says he believes New England will win in Denver even though he is taking the Broncos with the points.
- Nick WrightConference Champions · New England PatriotsHit · 100The host picks the Rams to beat the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game and believes the winner of that game wins the Super Bowl, i.e. that this is the Rams' year; he also picks New England to win in Denver despite taking the Broncos with the points, and says Stafford is winning MVP. He calls Sean McVay the second-best coach in the NFL.
- Nick WrightConference Champions · Denver BroncosClose · 50Wright picked the Broncos to beat the Patriots in a low-scoring AFC Championship game (17-16), said Sean Payton would coach Denver to the Super Bowl, picked the Rams to win outright in Seattle 31-20, believes the winner of the NFC game wins the Super Bowl with the Rams the better team, and expects Matt Stafford to be named league MVP.
- AJ HawkConference Champions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 50Hawk picked the Patriots to win in Denver despite liking Stidham and the Broncos defense, and in the NFC he stuck with the Rams, saying Stafford gets to the Super Bowl.
- Derek MurphyConference Champions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Bone said after watching film that Seattle will handle the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, and that the Seahawks are going to the Super Bowl.