Dan Patrick· Jan 15, 2025
The host (identified only as "Jake") ranks the remaining quarterbacks with Mahomes first and Lamar ahead of Allen in the AFC, Stafford first and Daniels over Goff with Hurts last in the NFC, picks Lamar Jackson for MVP, and takes the Chiefs, Lions and Eagles to win their divisional games.
“It should be Chiefs and Lions roll and get ready for the next step.”
said on air or in an interview · The Dan Patrick Show (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
6 checkable claims — 3 game outcome picks, 2 top player lists and 1 award pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 6 have settled, averaging 40 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
6 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksKansas City ChiefsJan 15, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Texans
“I might take the Chiefs just to be just to do it... It should be Chiefs and Lions roll”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- KC
- score:
- 14-23
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Game Outcome PicksPhiladelphia EaglesJan 15, 2025
Philadelphia Eagles to beat Rams
“I think there's gonna be a lot of people ruin for the Rams between Stafford's last ride. I don't I don't think they're gonna do it.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- PHI
- score:
- 22-28
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- PHI
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Award PicksLamar JacksonBaltimore RavensJan 15, 2025
Lamar Jackson to win MVP
“I think Lamar's gonna win.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Lamar Jackson, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- e5df2248-23d6-421e-9f77-d6c88c0dce10
- season:
- 2024
- winner:
- Josh Allen
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Top Player ListsJan 15, 2025
“so you have Lamar ahead of Alan right now... So you have you have that flipped. / Yes with a sigh.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 50-50 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- -50
- placed:
- 2
- season:
- 2024
- players:
- 3
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- QB 2: 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Top Player ListsJan 15, 2025
“I think it should be a consensus number one. I think it's Stafford... I think I might be Daniel's over and golf... if you're ranking these quarterbacks being pure, I think Hurts would be last.”
Close · 40Scored 40a naive guess scored 50-10 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- -10
- placed:
- 4
- season:
- 2024
- players:
- 4
- accuracy:
- 40
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- QB 4: 40
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 0
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Game Outcome PicksDetroit LionsJan 15, 2025
Detroit Lions to beat Commanders
“It should be Chiefs and Lions roll and get ready for the next step.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- WAS
- score:
- 45-31
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- DET
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
What others said about the same people
- Jeff KerrRoster Spot Calls · Maximus PulleyMiss · 0Kerr ranks the Eagles' eight undrafted free agents by their chances of making the initial 53-man roster, with Kapena Gushiken the most likely and predicts at least one UDFA makes the 53. He also forecasts practice squad spots for Zion Wilson, Deontae Lawson and Maximus Pulley, and a release for long snapper Rocco Underwood.
- Jason La CanforaRoster Spot Calls · Gerad LichtenhanMiss · 0La Canfora predicts the Ravens will keep several young players on their practice squad — DL Kaimon Rucker, LB Dominic DeLuca, LB Ethan Burke, CB Amani Oruwariye, OT Gerad Lichtenhan and QB Joe Fagnano — and expects the team to make at least one trade from its surplus of cornerbacks.
- Rich EisenTrade and Signing Calls · A.J. BrownHit · 100Eisen delivered his SoFi-presented power rankings of the 2026 NFL draftees most likely to live up to their billing, counting down from Mekhi Lemmon at No. 10 to Jeremiah Love at No. 1. He also predicted the Eagles will trade A.J. Brown and picked three NFC South teams to go over their win totals.
- Bucky BrooksMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 81In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13.
- Steve MenschMock Draft Picks · Caleb LomuClose · 62Making the even-numbered picks in the mock, he sent Arvell Reese to the Jets at No. 2, Spencer Fano to the Giants at 5, Jordan Tyson to the Saints at 8, a Tennessee cornerback to Miami at 11, Keldric Faulk to Baltimore at 14, Akheem Mesidor to Dallas at 20, Kenyon Sadiq to Philadelphia at 23, Caleb Banks to Buffalo at 26, Ty Simpson to the Rams at 29 and Chris Johnson to Seattle at 32, plus Caleb Lomu to Detroit at 17.
- Dalton FeelyTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsMiss · 0Feenie predicted Chris Godwin stays in Tampa Bay, Josh Sweat reunites with Jonathan Gannon in Arizona, Ronnie Stanley signs with New England, Jevon Holland lands in Indianapolis, Khalil Mack joins Washington, Asante Samuel Jr. goes to San Francisco, Najee Harris to the Raiders and Bobby Wagner to Dallas.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Nick WrightGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Nick Wright expects the Bills to beat the Lions comfortably in the Thursday night home opener, with Josh Allen shredding a depleted Detroit secondary, and he also picks a workmanlike Chiefs win over the Colts on Sunday night. He further predicts Tyreek Hill will end up on the Chiefs by around Halloween.
- Richard ShermanGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Sherman ran through the entire Week 2 slate with winners and several exact final scores, picking Seattle, San Francisco, Buffalo, Houston, Chicago, New England, Jacksonville, Dallas, Kansas City, the Rams, Green Bay, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Las Vegas and Carolina. He also called Fred Warner the league's best middle linebacker and floated Parker Washington as a top-five receiver.
- Joe MarinoGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Marino predicts the Bills beat the Lions in the Thursday night home opener to go 2-0, and expects a shootout with Goff and Allen combining for over 600 passing yards (each with a good chance at 300+).
- Walter CherepinskyGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100In the Week 2 Thursday night game, he predicts the Bills beat the Lions 31-24, expecting Detroit's offense to bounce back but Buffalo to prevail, with Josh Allen thriving and James Cook struggling again.
- Richard ShermanGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Sherman previewed the AFC, picking the Bills, Chiefs, Ravens and Texans as division winners with Denver, New England and Jacksonville as wild cards, called several individual early-season games, and predicted a big year for Travis Hunter at cornerback.
- Richard ShermanGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Sherman picked the Seahawks to repeat as NFC West champs, Dallas to win the East, Detroit the North and Tampa Bay the South, with the Rams, 49ers and Bears as wild cards. He also gave records for each team's first four games and picked the Rams over the 49ers in Week 1.