LaVar Arrington· Sep 19, 2025
Arrington sees the Dolphins winning only three or four more games the rest of the way, expects Baltimore to beat Miami, money-lined the Broncos outright at the Chargers and the Lions outright in Baltimore, and agreed the Chiefs will blow out the Giants.
“I'm gonna money line the Detroit Lions... the lines are gonna win that game out right on the road, outright in Baltimore.”
said on air or in an interview · 2 Pros and a Cup of Joe (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
5 checkable claims — 4 game outcome picks and 1 season win total — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 68 out of 100, against 35 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksDenver BroncosSep 19, 2025
Denver Broncos to beat Chargers
“the Broncos are headed... Chargers are two and a half point favorites... We don't need to beat around the bush. We go point money line them horses, sticks picks.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-189 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- LAC
- score:
- 20-23
- skill:
- -189
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- LAC
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- Game Outcome PicksBaltimore RavensSep 19, 2025
Baltimore Ravens to beat Dolphins
“You got the Ravens. They gonna win that.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+189 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BAL
- score:
- 28-6
- skill:
- 189
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- MIA
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- Game Outcome PicksKansas City ChiefsSep 19, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Giants
“what if the Chiefs just come out and obliterate the Giants?... I think they will.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+189 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- KC
- score:
- 22-9
- skill:
- 189
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- NYG
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- Season Win TotalsMiami DolphinsSep 19, 2025
Miami Dolphins to finish with 4 wins
“I mean, so we're looking at I don't know, man, three. four more. At the most, maybe four more wins.”
Close · 40Scored 40a naive guess scored 75-66.15 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- MIA
- naive:
- 8.25
- skill:
- -66.15
- what happened:
- 7
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 40
- baseline:
- 75
- predicted:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- Game Outcome PicksDetroit LionsSep 19, 2025
Detroit Lions to beat Baltimore
“I'm gonna money line the Detroit Lions, sticks picks, the lines are gonna win that game out right on the road, outright in Baltimore.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+189 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DET
- score:
- 38-30
- skill:
- 189
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- BAL
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 16
What others said about the same people
- Joshua SchulmanGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Schulman endorses the view that the Chiefs will beat the Colts in their Sunday night matchup, calling ESPN's heavy lean toward Kansas City a fair assessment.
- Nick WrightGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Amid his Week 2 spread picks, Wright made a few straight-up calls: Jacksonville wins outright at Denver, Carolina wins at Atlanta, and he'd be stunned if Kansas City lost to Indianapolis. He also expected Zay Flowers and Ladd McConkie to sit out with injuries.
- Greg JenningsGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosHit · 100Jennings put the Cardinals up as his upset alert over Seattle, backed the Texans over Cincinnati and the Bears over Minnesota with chips, put two chips on Denver beating Jacksonville, and wrote a headline of the Packers beating the Jets; he also called the Bengals a playoff team and the Chiefs winners over Indianapolis.
- Nick ShookGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensMiss · 0Shook said he would take the Steelers and Jaguars to win outright on the road, still expects the Chargers to beat the Raiders, and thinks Baltimore's run game will turn the Saints game into a double-digit Ravens win.
- Lance SandersonScore Predictions · Denver BroncosHit · 88Sanderson thinks Denver cleans up its play on both sides of the ball and wins a close one.
- Bob MorrisScore Predictions · Denver BroncosHit · 90Morris expects cleaner tackling and offensive rhythm to give Denver a close win.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Michael HanichGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Hanich argues the Week 2 road game at Arizona is not a true trap game, citing Seattle's long winning streak in the series, Mike Macdonald's preparation and injuries in the Cardinals' secondary, and rates his confidence in the Seahawks at 7. He also suggests safety Nick Emmanwori may miss a second straight game.
- Seth WalderGame Outcome Picks · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Picks the Panthers to beat the Falcons in Atlanta.
- Eric MoodyGame Outcome Picks · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Picks the Panthers to beat the Falcons in Atlanta.
- Pamela MaldonadoGame Outcome Picks · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Picks the Panthers to beat the Falcons in Atlanta.
- John MiddlekauffGame Outcome Picks · Philadelphia EaglesHit · 100In a Week 2 preview, Middlekauff argued Matt LaFleur is under enormous pressure in Green Bay, predicted blowout wins for the 49ers over Miami and the Eagles over Tennessee, and offered season win-total views on the Saints, Buccaneers, Texans and Jaguars while backing Dallas to win the NFC East.
- Nick WrightGame Outcome Picks · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Amid a slate of against-the-spread picks, Wright makes a few outright calls: Jacksonville beats Denver straight up, Carolina wins at Atlanta, and he reiterates that he picked Denver to make the playoffs despite his concerns after their Week 1 loss. He also expects Ladd McConkie to sit out the Chargers' game.