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Lance Sanderson· Sep 18, 2026

Sanderson thinks Denver cleans up its play on both sides of the ball and wins a close one.

I think the Broncos clean it up on both sides of the ball and come out swinging to prove they are who we think they are.

published in writing · Sports Illustrated · read the original →

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 88.1 out of 100, against 82.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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1 checkable claim in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Denver Broncos 23 — Jaguars 21

    Pick : Broncos 23, Jaguars 21

    Hit · 88Scored 88.1a naive guess scored 82.1+11.62 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    13-20
    skill:
    11.62
    they picked:
    DEN
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    88.1
    baseline:
    82.1
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    7
    weeks left when called:
    17
    naive home margin:
    -0.52
    predicted margin:
    2

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