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Gregg Rosenthal· Sep 19, 2025

Rosenthal restates his preseason Super Bowl pick of the Ravens beating the Lions, agrees with Cowboys, Texans and Patriots picks in Week 3, takes the Ravens over Detroit in a high-scoring game he pegs at 41-31, and calls Jacksonville a playoff team that could land the AFC's seven seed.

“I love points. I think it's like forty one to thirty one.”

said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast) · read the original →

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

9 checkable claims — 4 game outcome picks, 1 conference champion, 1 playoff pick, 1 score prediction, 1 seeding, byes and home field and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 9 have settled, averaging 16.1 out of 100, against 26.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

9 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Conference ChampionsDetroit LionsSep 19, 2025

    Detroit Lions to reach the Super Bowl

    “I'm convinced that this is going to be an elite Lions offense. That's why I have them in the Super Bowl”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    DET
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    champions:
    NE,SEA
    difficulty:
    1.89
    the naive guess:
    last season's conference champions
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    16
    reached the Super Bowl:
    no
    lost the conference final:
    no

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksHouston TexansSep 19, 2025

    Houston Texans to beat Jags

    “I think that the Textan's top the Jags. / I'm on your side too... That was my pick on game debut.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-189 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    JAX
    score:
    10-17
    skill:
    -189
    they picked:
    HOU
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    JAX
    difficulty:
    1.89
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    16

    Think this is wrong?

  • Seeding, Byes and Home FieldJacksonville JaguarsSep 19, 2025

    Jacksonville Jaguars to take the top seed

    “I think they could be the seven seed, for instance in the AFC.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    JAX
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    checked as:
    seeds 5–7 visit a wild-card game — the bracket cannot separate them further
    actual tier:
    host
    difficulty:
    1.89
    the naive guess:
    where they finished last season (missed the playoffs)
    weeks in the season:
    18
    claimed seed:
    7
    claimed tier:
    visitor
    weeks left when called:
    16

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksNew England PatriotsSep 19, 2025

    New England Patriots to beat Steelers

    “The Patriots ooh, I do agree with you on this, but I'm like a little freaked out... I'm with you. I think I think it's close”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    PIT
    score:
    21-14
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    NE
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    NE
    difficulty:
    1.89
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    16

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksDallas CowboysSep 19, 2025

    Dallas Cowboys to beat Chicago Bears

    “I did hit the Cowboys game. We agree on that... that's ultimately why I picked the Cowboys.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-189 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    CHI
    score:
    14-31
    skill:
    -189
    they picked:
    DAL
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    CHI
    difficulty:
    1.89
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    16

    Think this is wrong?

  • Super Bowl PicksBaltimore RavensSep 19, 2025

    Baltimore Ravens to win the Super Bowl

    “the Super Bowl this year is going to feature your Detroit Lions and my Baltimore Ravens because that was my super Bowl pick before the year, with the Ravens winning”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    BAL
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    champion:
    SEA
    runner up:
    NE
    the naive pick:
    PHI
    difficulty:
    1.89
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    16

    Think this is wrong?

  • Score PredictionsBaltimore RavensSep 19, 2025

    Baltimore Ravens 41 — Lions 31

    “I love points. I think it's like forty one to thirty one.”

    Close · 45Scored 45.24a naive guess scored 35.78+17.87 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    38-30
    skill:
    17.87
    they picked:
    BAL
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    45.24
    baseline:
    35.78
    difficulty:
    1.89
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    8
    weeks left when called:
    16
    naive home margin:
    2.03
    predicted margin:
    10

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksBaltimore RavensSep 19, 2025

    Baltimore Ravens to beat Lions

    “I'm going against the Lions as my third pick. I'm taking the Ravens minus four and a half... I am going Ravens.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    DET
    score:
    38-30
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    BAL
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    BAL
    difficulty:
    1.89
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    16

    Think this is wrong?

  • Playoff PicksJacksonville JaguarsSep 19, 2025

    Jacksonville Jaguars to make the playoffs

    “the Jacksonville run game looks really good. I think they I think they're a proof team. I think they could be the seven seed, for instance in the AFC.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+189 skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    JAX
    skill:
    189
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive guess said:
    no
    difficulty:
    1.89
    weeks in the season:
    18
    made the playoffs:
    yes
    weeks left when called:
    16

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Discussed alongside these

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