Lance Zierlein· Apr 20, 2026
Zierlein laid out a full mock of the top eight picks of the upcoming draft, and predicted the Texans will likely trade back out of the first round rather than pick at 28. He also expects the Giants to use pick 5 on a receiver and later trade up for Caleb Downs, and thinks Myles Garrett could be traded by the deadline.
“There's at least a fifty fifty chance that when I come on the radio Friday morning, the Texans will have not have made a pick on day one.”
said on air, transcribed by us · John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast) · read the original →
10 checkable claims — 8 mock draft picks, 1 team draft slot call and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 17 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
7 of 10 have settled so far, averaging 90.2 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pick2They said
2What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
10 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksDavid BaileyApr 20, 2026
David Bailey to be picked at number 2
“Two, who you got? David Bailey.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 37.5
- player:
- David Bailey
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 87.5
- Mock Draft PicksCarnell TateCleveland BrownsApr 20, 2026
Carnell Tate to be picked at number 6
“Six browns would be, either Carnell Tate... Let's say Carnell Tate there.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 80 against a shuffle’s 50+30 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 30
- player:
- Carnell Tate
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 6
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 80
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“One, Raiders, Mendoza.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 80 against a shuffle’s 50+30 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 30
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 80
- Mock Draft PicksArvell ReeseArizona CardinalsApr 20, 2026
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 3
“Okay. Three. I'm still gonna say Reese.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 80 against a shuffle’s 50+30 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 30
- player:
- Arvell Reese
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 80
- Mock Draft PicksRueben BainWashington CommandersApr 20, 2026
Rueben Bain to be picked at number 7
“Commander seven? Seven would be probably Ruben Bane.”
Close · 71Scored 70.71 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 80 against a shuffle’s 50+30 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 30
- player:
- Rueben Bain
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 70.71
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 15
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 70.71
- predicted pick:
- 7
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 80
- Mock Draft PicksJordyn TysonNew Orleans SaintsApr 20, 2026
Jordyn Tyson to be picked at number 8
“Eight Saints? Saints would be, Jordan Tyson.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 80 against a shuffle’s 50+30 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 30
- player:
- Jordyn Tyson
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 8
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 8
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 80
- Mock Draft PicksCaleb DownsNew York GiantsApr 20, 2026
Caleb Downs to be picked at number 5
“Five? Five. I'll go downs. Giants.”
Close · 77Scored 77.11 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 80 against a shuffle’s 50+30 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 30
- player:
- Caleb Downs
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 77.11
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 77.11
- predicted pick:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 80
- Mock Draft PicksJordan LoveTennessee TitansApr 20, 2026
Jordan Love to be picked at number 4
“Four? Four would be, Love.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Team Draft Slot CallsHouston TexansApr 20, 2026
Houston Texans to pick “will have not have made a pick on day one”
“There's at least a fifty fifty chance that when I come on the radio Friday morning, the Texans will have not have made a pick on day one, because I think Nick would like to have a little bit more ammunition in this draft.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Trade and Signing CallsMyles GarrettApr 20, 2026
Myles Garrett to move
“So I think Miles Garrett could be dealt by the trade deadline, to be honest with you.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Mike FlorioDepth Chart Calls · Shedeur SandersMiss · 0Florio reports the Browns will start Deshaun Watson in Week 1 but predicts Shedeur Sanders will likely be the starting quarterback by Week 3.
- Paul KerenDepth Chart Calls · Teven JenkinsMiss · 0Keren says Teven Jenkins still projects as Cleveland's Week 1 starting right guard despite a push from KT Leveston, and that Carson Schwesinger and Quincy Williams will be the Browns' lead linebackers.
- Seth WalderTrade and Signing Calls · Kayshon BoutteMiss · 0Walder proposes five trades he believes should happen before Week 1 of the 2026 season: Jessie Bates III to the 49ers, Kayvon Thibodeaux to the Patriots, Keon Coleman to the Colts, Walker Little to the Cardinals, and Kayshon Boutte to the Commanders, where he says Boutte would immediately be Washington's No. 2 receiver.
- Henry McKennaDepth Chart Calls · Carson BeckMiss · 0McKenna predicts Kyler Murray will win the Vikings' starting QB job over J.J. McCarthy, that Minnesota will make the playoffs if Murray cuts out the hero ball, that both QBs will play in 2026, and wonders whether rookie Carson Beck could unseat Jacoby Brissett as Arizona's Week 1 starter.
- Garrett PodellTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsHit · 100An unsigned CBS Sports report frames Stefon Diggs as filling Washington's vacant No. 2 receiver role opposite Terry McLaurin after his reported one-year deal, expecting him in that spot in the 2026 passing game with Jayden Daniels.
- Fernando Alfaro-DonisTrade and Signing Calls · Kayshon BoutteMiss · 0Argues the Raiders' weakest spot is their receiver room, expects Jalen Nailor to take a big step forward in Klint Kubiak's scheme with Kirk Cousins starting before Fernando Mendoza takes over, and suggests Las Vegas should trade a mid-round pick for Patriots receiver Kayshon Boutte, who would immediately become their top option.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Rob RangMock Draft Picks · Jeremiah SmithMiss · 0Rang ranks the four headline prospects from the Texas-Ohio State game in the order he'd draft them (Jeremiah Smith, Arch Manning, Cam Coleman, Julian Sayin) and assigns each a draft grade: Smith and Manning as top-5 picks, Coleman top 10, and Sayin a third-rounder.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · Brandon DoughtyMiss · 3Rosenthal gave first reactions to Vegas win totals: overs on the Steelers, Broncos, Vikings, Buccaneers, 49ers and Cardinals, unders on the Falcons and Commanders, plus he expects Shedeur Sanders to start about 10-11 games and thinks the Cowboys' 9.5 is beatable.
- Peter BukowskiMock Draft Picks · Gennings DunkerHit · 100Bukowski breaks down Iowa offensive lineman Jennings Dunker as a Packers fit and puts a late second-/early third-round grade on him, noting that range overlaps where Green Bay picks.
- Brian PeacockMock Draft Picks · Bud ClarkHit · 96In his final 2026 mock draft for the 49ers, Peacock projects San Francisco taking WR Kevin Concepcion (KC) at pick 27, then after trading out of round two, edge rusher Kieron Crawford and safety Bud Clark in round three, OL Trey Zune and RB Jonah Coleman in round four, CB Charles Demings in round five and guard Caden Barnett in round six. He also thinks Omar Cooper comes off the board before Concepcion.
- Damian ParsonMock Draft Picks · Zachariah BranchHit · 100Locked On's draft analyst laid out where several prospects should land in the upcoming draft: Zachariah Branch as a Day 2/third-round target for the Chargers, Penn State's top offensive lineman gone well before pick 22 (ideally 14 to Baltimore), Akeem Mesador and Malachi Lawrence as first-round edge rushers, Derrick Moore as a Day 2 edge, and Texas's left tackle as a top-10 pick next year.
- Ollie ConnollyMock Draft Picks · Kyle LouisMiss · 19Connelly assesses the 2026 draft class: he sees Jeremiah Love as a top-ten most productive player at running back with an Ezekiel Elliott-to-Bijan/McCaffrey range, projects Fernando Mendoza as a top-8-to-12 starting QB in the league, pegs Ty Simpson as a top-of-the-second-round pick he'd only be comfortable taking in the third, and slots various tight ends and late running backs into specific rounds.