Ollie Connolly· Apr 17, 2026
Connelly assesses the 2026 draft class: he sees Jeremiah Love as a top-ten most productive player at running back with an Ezekiel Elliott-to-Bijan/McCaffrey range, projects Fernando Mendoza as a top-8-to-12 starting QB in the league, pegs Ty Simpson as a top-of-the-second-round pick he'd only be comfortable taking in the third, and slots various tight ends and late running backs into specific rounds.
“I think you're getting someone where the benchmark is going to be top ten most productive play at his position.”
said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
9 checkable claims — 6 mock draft picks, 2 positional finishes and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
4 of 9 have settled so far, averaging 27.8 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 2 unsettled calls enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room on every one.
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Who this take is about
9 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksKyle LouisApr 17, 2026
Kyle Louis to be picked “second or third round pick” (picks 33–100)
“Kyle Lewis, who's going to be a second or third round pick as a linebacker or safety”
Miss · 19Scored 19.28a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Kyle Louis
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 19.28
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 138
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 19.28
- predicted pick:
- second or third round pick (picks 33–100)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksKaelon BlackApr 17, 2026
Kaelon Black to be picked “potential sixth round pick types” (picks 182–216)
“he'll probably be on the field more than other potential sixth round pick types”
Miss · 2Scored 1.86a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Kaelon Black
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 1.86
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 90
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 1.86
- predicted pick:
- potential sixth round pick types (picks 182–216)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksDemond ClaiborneApr 17, 2026
Demond Claiborne to be picked “fourth or fifth round” (picks 101–181)
“Maybe he's probably gonna go in the fourth or fifth round.”
Close · 48Scored 47.88a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Demond Claiborne
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 47.88
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 198
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 47.88
- predicted pick:
- fourth or fifth round (picks 101–181)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksTy SimpsonApr 17, 2026
Ty Simpson to be picked “top of the second round” (picks 33–64)
“Well, you're probably going to have to do it the top of the second round.”
Close · 42Scored 42.04a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Ty Simpson
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 42.04
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 42.04
- predicted pick:
- top of the second round (picks 33–64)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
Fernando Mendoza to finish top 12 at his position, by passing yards
“to push on him be maybe a top twelve to top eight starts in the league”
Too vague to check — we could not tell what would count as right.
- Positional FinishesJeremiyah LoveApr 17, 2026
Jeremiyah Love to finish top 10 at his position, by rushing yards
“And I think you're getting someone where the benchmark is going to be top ten most productive play at his position.”
Too vague to check — we could not tell what would count as right.
- Mock Draft PicksKenyon SadiqApr 17, 2026
Kenyon Sadiq to be picked “maybe it's mole down in the teens the twenties”
“no it feels like the range has come down slightly from Post COMBINE i would say that maybe it's mole down in the teens the twenties”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Mock Draft PicksWill KacmarekApr 17, 2026
Will Kacmarek to be picked “an early day three”
“but if you think he's one of the top two blocking tight, ends that feels like an early day. Three”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Position Order CallsSonny StylesApr 17, 2026
Sonny Styles to be the second or third best player of role in the class at his position off the board
“I love Sunny Styles. I think he's maybe the second or third best player of role in the class.”
Too vague to check — we could not tell what would count as right.
What others said about the same people
- Fernando Alfaro-DonisTrade and Signing Calls · Kayshon BoutteMiss · 0Argues the Raiders' weakest spot is their receiver room, expects Jalen Nailor to take a big step forward in Klint Kubiak's scheme with Kirk Cousins starting before Fernando Mendoza takes over, and suggests Las Vegas should trade a mid-round pick for Patriots receiver Kayshon Boutte, who would immediately become their top option.
- Brandon CarneyTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsMiss · 0Carney drafted a team of rookies he expects to make an immediate fantasy impact (headlined by Karnell Tate and Makai Lemon), predicted landing spots for the remaining big-name free agents, and gave way-too-early division winners, wild cards and award picks — Patriots, Chargers, Bengals, Jaguars, Eagles, Rams, Vikings and Saints as division champs with Joe Burrow as MVP.
- Lance ZierleinMock Draft Picks · Jeremiyah LoveHit · 100Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Fernando MendozaHit · 100Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Chad Ochocinco JohnsonTrade and Signing Calls · George PickensMiss · 0Johnson predicted Ja'Marr Chase would go over 74.5 receiving yards against the Steelers, said the Bengals can beat Pittsburgh in a close, low-scoring game, and forecast that George Pickens will leave Dallas in free agency and sign with the Raiders.
- Richard ShermanSeason Win Totals · Las Vegas RaidersMiss · 0Sherman previewed every division: he picked Seattle to win the NFC West on a tiebreaker over San Francisco (both 11-11 wins), the Lions over the Packers in the North, the Eagles to run away with the East, Tampa Bay in the South, and Kansas City, Buffalo and the Ravens' division rivals in the AFC. He picked an Eagles–Chiefs Super Bowl with Philadelphia repeating, Joe Burrow for MVP, and gave a top-five power ranking.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 92Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day.
- Bucky BrooksMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 81In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13.
- Jeff CavanaughMock Draft Picks · Lorenzo StylesMiss · 1Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40.