Chris Brockman· Dec 1, 2025
Brockman argued the Broncos are headed to the AFC Championship Game, that the Cowboys will win the NFC East, that Green Bay is the NFC's best team, and that the Bears will finish no worse than the No. 2 seed in the NFC.
“Denver's going to the AFC championship game.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
4 checkable claims — 1 division winner, 1 playoff pick, 1 power ranking and 1 seeding, byes and home field — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
3 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 66.7 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
4 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Division WinnersDallas CowboysDec 1, 2025
Dallas Cowboys to win the division
“Let's just do it. The Cowboys are gonna win the NFC East.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-133 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -133
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- DAL
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 6
- won the division:
- no
- Seeding, Byes and Home FieldChicago BearsDec 1, 2025
Chicago Bears to take the top seed
“The bears are gonna finish no worse than the two seed in the NFC.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+133 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 133
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- checked as:
- seeds 2–4 host a wild-card game — the bracket cannot separate them further
- actual tier:
- host
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- the naive guess:
- where they finished last season (missed the playoffs)
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- claimed seed:
- 2
- claimed tier:
- host
- weeks left when called:
- 6
- Playoff PicksDenver BroncosDec 1, 2025
Denver Broncos to make the playoffs
“Rich, everyone on the Broncos summer bandwagon was right. Denver's going to the AFC championship game.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- DEN
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 6
- Power RankingsDec 1, 2025
“Rams. The pack is back. Green Bay is the best team in the NFC.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Randy GurziRoster Spot Calls · Reddy StewardMiss · 0Gurzi predicts the Cowboys' 17-man practice squad, naming each player he expects Dallas to sign, including a surprise addition of released Giants tackle Evan Neal. He also predicts Jaydon Blue will be claimed off waivers by another team and that Sam Williams will land elsewhere.
- Chad JensenRoster Spot Calls · Jonah ColemanMiss · 0Jensen expects the Broncos to sign fullback Adam Prentice to the active 53-man roster early the following week rather than risk losing him on waivers, with a corresponding cut coming Monday. He also anticipates Denver will clear a roster spot for Jonah Coleman once the running back's four-game IR stint ends around Week 7.
- Jeff CavanaughRoster Spot Calls · Curtis RobinsonMiss · 0Building his projected Cowboys 53-man roster on defense, Jeff keeps five interior linemen (Kenny Clark, Quentin, Tito Obonia, LT Overton, Bullard), six edge rushers including Von Miller, Malachi Lawrence and Marist Liufau while cutting Sam Williams, four linebackers with Jayshawn Barham starting, six corners including rookie Devin Moore, and four safeties including Marquise Bell.
- Mike MoraitisRoster Spot Calls · Josh BlackwellHit · 100Moraitis names seven Bears as trade candidates before roster cuts, predicting Kiran Amegadjie and Jedrick Wills are on the roster bubble and likely to be traded, while Ozzy Trapilo avoids an injured list, and listing several players as locks for the 53-man roster.
- Bob MorrisRoster Spot Calls · J.K. DobbinsHit · 100Morris predicts Jarrett Stidham holds the backup QB job behind Bo Nix, Adam Prentice makes the 53-man roster as the fullback/fourth back, and Lucas Krull gets cut.
- Tom JensenRoster Spot Calls · Cole KmetMiss · 0NFL.com published a list of players it expects to be released by cutdown day, headlined by tight ends Dawson Knox, T.J. Hockenson and Cole Kmet.
More division winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Daniel DiBerardinisDivision Winners · Atlanta FalconsMiss · 0Danny D predicts Sonny Styles goes in the top ten (maybe top five), doesn't think Ty Simpson goes before late first round, says Kenyon Sadiq lands with the Rams at 13, and picks the Falcons to win the NFC South while naming the Bengals an AFC bounce-back team. He also gives a Final Four of Michigan, Florida, Purdue and Arizona with Michigan winning.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · New York GiantsMiss · 0Cowherd projects the NFC East with the Giants winning the division ahead of Philadelphia, Washington and Dallas, pegging the Cowboys as a six- or seven-win team. He also expects Malik Willis to land a big free-agent deal, Kayvon Thibodeaux to be moved, and Baltimore to lose Isaiah Likely, and he floats the Rams reaching on Ty Simpson late in round one.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · Los Angeles ChargersMiss · 0Cowherd unveiled his top 10 NFL teams entering next season, with Seattle first, the Rams second and the Chiefs tenth, and separately picked the Chargers to win the AFC West.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · Baltimore RavensMiss · 0Cowherd likes Jacksonville, Chicago and Pittsburgh (with DK Metcalf back) in the wild-card round, ranks the league's head coaches with McVay first and Ben Johnson seventh, and predicts Lamar Jackson has about two strong years left. He also names the Rams as a possible team to draft a receiver and floats next year's draft having seven first-round quarterbacks.
- Danny ParkinsDivision Winners · Baltimore RavensMiss · 0Parkins lays the points with the Eagles and Cowboys, takes Baltimore to beat Pittsburgh and win the AFC North, picks Carolina over Tampa Bay and Seattle over San Francisco, and says he'd probably pick the Rams to come out of the NFC.
- Rich EisenDivision Winners · Jacksonville JaguarsHit · 100Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. He also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.