Gregg Rosenthal· Dec 12, 2025
Rosenthal reads out the show's 32-to-1 NFL power rankings, with the Rams first and the Raiders last, and separately picks the Buccaneers to hold on in the NFC South and the Texans to finish at least 11-6.
“They are gonna get to eleven and six at worst, and there's a pretty decent chance they win all four of those games.”
said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
3 checkable claims — 1 division winner, 1 power ranking and 1 season win total — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 3 have settled, averaging 58.3 out of 100, against 37.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
3 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Division WinnersTampa Bay BuccaneersDec 12, 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the division
“I do think the Buccaneers, despite tonight, are still my favorite in the NFC style barely over the Panthers”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- TB
- difficulty:
- 1.22
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 4
- won the division:
- no
- Power RankingsDec 12, 2025
“Let's do the power rankings bottom to top... number thirty two, the Las Vegas Raiders... The Tennessee Titans at thirty one, Jets thirty. The Commanders... twenty ninth... The Giants at twenty eight, Cardinals twenty seven... Brown's at twenty six... the eighth worst team in the NFL... the Falcons here at twenty four... Viking to or twenty three. The Colts all the way down at twenty two... the Bengals are even as high as twenty... the Steelers at seventeen, the Ravens at eighteen, the Panthers at nineteen... the Chiefs at fifteen, the Cowboys at fourteen, and the Eagles at thirteen... forty nine Ers at nine... Chargers at ten, Bears eleven, Jaguars twelve... at eight [Lions]... the Patriots down at seven... tied with the Broncos... the Bills and the Texans tied at fourth... had the Bills ahead of the Texans... we had the exact same one two, three, Rams, Seahawks, and Packers”
Hit · 95Scored 94.75a naive guess scored 66.41+34.58 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 34.58
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 94.75
- baseline:
- 66.41
- difficulty:
- 1.22
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 30
- weeks left when called:
- 4
- Season Win TotalsHouston TexansDec 12, 2025
Houston Texans to finish with 11 wins
“They are not going to lose two more games the rest of the season. They are gonna get to eleven and six at worst”
Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 45+42.7 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- HOU
- naive:
- 9.25
- skill:
- 42.7
- what happened:
- 12
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 80
- baseline:
- 45
- predicted:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1.22
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 4
What others said about the same people
- Colin CowherdGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Cowherd repeats his claim that Caleb Williams will be viewed as a top four or five quarterback by the end of the season, restates his preseason pick of the Ravens to win their division, and expects a angry Houston defense to beat Cincinnati on Sunday.
- Chris BroussardGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Brew stood by the Lions as division winners and playoff team, picked the Texans over Cincinnati, the Bears over Minnesota, the Patriots to beat Pittsburgh with a solid Drake Maye game, flagged Jacksonville over Denver as his upset alert, and said he still feels good about the Ravens winning the AFC.
- Greg JenningsGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Jennings put the Cardinals up as his upset alert over Seattle, backed the Texans over Cincinnati and the Bears over Minnesota with chips, put two chips on Denver beating Jacksonville, and wrote a headline of the Packers beating the Jets; he also called the Bengals a playoff team and the Chiefs winners over Indianapolis.
- Nick WrightGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Wright stuck by his preseason call of a 12-5 Bills team that wins its division, picked the Jaguars to beat Denver outright, leaned Texans over Cincinnati, still has Atlanta as his deep sleeper, counts New England among his 14 playoff teams, and recalled pegging Washington for a 5-12 or 6-11 year with a bottom-six defense.
- John GranatoGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Despite the Texans' injuries at wide receiver, he picked Houston to beat Cincinnati in their upcoming game.
- Lance ZierleinGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Zierlein expected Nico Collins to sit out with his injury, and said that despite the tough matchup he had already submitted the Texans as his pick over Cincinnati.
More division winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Daniel DiBerardinisDivision Winners · Atlanta FalconsMiss · 0Danny D predicts Sonny Styles goes in the top ten (maybe top five), doesn't think Ty Simpson goes before late first round, says Kenyon Sadiq lands with the Rams at 13, and picks the Falcons to win the NFC South while naming the Bengals an AFC bounce-back team. He also gives a Final Four of Michigan, Florida, Purdue and Arizona with Michigan winning.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · New York GiantsMiss · 0Cowherd projects the NFC East with the Giants winning the division ahead of Philadelphia, Washington and Dallas, pegging the Cowboys as a six- or seven-win team. He also expects Malik Willis to land a big free-agent deal, Kayvon Thibodeaux to be moved, and Baltimore to lose Isaiah Likely, and he floats the Rams reaching on Ty Simpson late in round one.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · Los Angeles ChargersMiss · 0Cowherd unveiled his top 10 NFL teams entering next season, with Seattle first, the Rams second and the Chiefs tenth, and separately picked the Chargers to win the AFC West.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · Baltimore RavensMiss · 0Cowherd likes Jacksonville, Chicago and Pittsburgh (with DK Metcalf back) in the wild-card round, ranks the league's head coaches with McVay first and Ben Johnson seventh, and predicts Lamar Jackson has about two strong years left. He also names the Rams as a possible team to draft a receiver and floats next year's draft having seven first-round quarterbacks.
- Danny ParkinsDivision Winners · Baltimore RavensMiss · 0Parkins lays the points with the Eagles and Cowboys, takes Baltimore to beat Pittsburgh and win the AFC North, picks Carolina over Tampa Bay and Seattle over San Francisco, and says he'd probably pick the Rams to come out of the NFC.
- Rich EisenDivision Winners · Jacksonville JaguarsHit · 100Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. He also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.