Marcus Mosher· May 16, 2024
Mosher names four running backs as 2024 breakout candidates: Zamir White as the Raiders' lead back, Chase Brown in an expanded Bengals role, Brian Robinson Jr. posting huge numbers in Washington's new offense, and Rico Dowdle leading the Cowboys in touches with a 1,000-yard season.
“If Dowdle stays healthy, he should post 1,000 yards and be a key cog for one of the NFC's best teams.”
published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived May 19, 2024) →
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.
4 checkable claims — 3 depth chart calls and 1 player season number — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 4 have settled, averaging 90.1 out of 100, against 68.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
rushing yards1,000They said
1,079What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
4 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Player Season NumbersRico DowdleDallas CowboysMay 16, 2024
Rico Dowdle to record 1,000 rushing yards
“If Dowdle stays healthy, he should post 1,000 yards and be a key cog for one of the NFC's best teams.”
Hit · 85Scored 85.36a naive guess scored 0+170.71 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 375.82
- skill:
- 170.71
- what happened:
- 1079
- player:
- Rico Dowdle
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 85.36
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 1000
- statistic:
- rushing_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 361
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 390.64
- zero at percent out:
- 50
- Depth Chart CallsZack MossCincinnati BengalsMay 16, 2024
Zack Moss to be 1st on the depth chart
“that's why Cincinnati signed Zack Moss to do the heavy lifting on early downs”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 91.67+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- CIN
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Zack Moss
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Depth Chart CallsRico DowdleDallas CowboysMay 16, 2024
Rico Dowdle to be 1st on the depth chart
“But Dowdle will handle a lot of the heavy lifting on early downs.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- DAL
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Rico Dowdle
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Depth Chart CallsZamir WhiteLas Vegas RaidersMay 16, 2024
Zamir White to be 1st on the depth chart
“Las Vegas only added Alexander Mattison to the backfield this offseason, so it will rely on White as the rushing attack's focal point.”
Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 91.67-16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- LV
- skill:
- -16.67
- player:
- Zamir White
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
What others said about the same people
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More depth chart calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Tyler SullivanDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100An unsigned CBS Sports preseason review grading all 32 teams, which along the way stakes out a number of depth-chart calls for Week 1 and beyond — including Deshaun Watson opening as Cleveland's starter, Fernando Mendoza taking over as Las Vegas' QB1 by season's end, and Minnesota's Murray-Wentz-McCarthy quarterback order.
- Ryan WilsonDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100A CBS Sports piece states Deshaun Watson has won Cleveland's starting quarterback job for Week 1 with Shedeur Sanders next in line, while arguing Watson will not play like even an average NFL quarterback and that none of the Browns' current young passers should stop them from drafting a first-round quarterback next April.
- Rafael ZamoranoDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100Zamorano argues the Browns do not have a franchise quarterback and that it's unlikely Watson or Sanders is their long-term answer.
- John BreechDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100The unsigned newsletter author says Deshaun Watson will start Week 1 at Jacksonville, notes he voted for Jaxson Dart as his breakout QB rather than Caleb Williams, and says newly signed Daniel Carlson is the favorite to win the Saints' kicking job.
- Mark ChichesterDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100Unsigned PFF piece reporting/asserting that Deshaun Watson will be Cleveland's Week 1 starting quarterback against Jacksonville, with Shedeur Sanders behind him on the depth chart.
- Zachary PerelesDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100The unsigned recap argues Sanders clearly outplayed Watson and, even if Sanders isn't named the Week 1 starter, predicts both quarterbacks will see significant playing time in 2026.