Skip to main content
MissedTakes
Menu

Cynthia Frelund· Sep 12, 2025

Freeland's model picks Cincinnati to beat Jacksonville by about six at home, New England to win at Miami, and Denver to beat Indianapolis on the strength of its defense; the model also has Minnesota beating Atlanta by three and Pittsburgh beating Seattle by two. She reiterated her Super Bowl pick of the Bills over the Eagles.

I think Cincinnati wins by more than three and a half points at home against the Jacks.

said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast) · read the original →

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

7 checkable claims — 5 game outcome picks, 1 conference champion and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 7 have settled, averaging 28.6 out of 100, against 28.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

7 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • New England Patriots to beat Miami

    I think New England wins interesting beats Miami

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+194 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    NE
    score:
    33-27
    skill:
    194
    they picked:
    NE
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    MIA
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17

    Think this is wrong?

  • Philadelphia Eagles to reach the Super Bowl

    Lls over Eagles?

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    PHI
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    champions:
    NE,SEA
    difficulty:
    1.94
    the naive guess:
    last season's conference champions
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
    reached the Super Bowl:
    no
    lost the conference final:
    no

    Think this is wrong?

  • Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Seattle

    then I have a two point win in favor of Pittsburgh only

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    SEA
    score:
    31-17
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    PIT
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    PIT
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17

    Think this is wrong?

  • Minnesota Vikings to beat Atlanta

    Minnesota is at three and a half. I have Minnesota winning by three

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    ATL
    score:
    22-6
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    MIN
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    MIN
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17

    Think this is wrong?

  • Denver Broncos to beat Colts

    No, picking the Broncos. It's two and a half points... Mostly the reason I'm picking them is because the Denver Bronco defense is the best unit in this game

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-194 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    IND
    score:
    28-29
    skill:
    -194
    they picked:
    DEN
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    IND
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17

    Think this is wrong?

  • Cincinnati Bengals to beat Jacksonville

    I have them winning by six... so I think Cincinnati wins by more than three and a half points at home against the Jacks.

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    CIN
    score:
    27-31
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    CIN
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    CIN
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17

    Think this is wrong?

  • Buffalo Bills to win the Super Bowl

    Lls over Eagles? ... and my super Bowl picks won their first games

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    champion:
    SEA
    runner up:
    NE
    the naive pick:
    PHI
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Discussed alongside these

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span of it for attribution — we never republish their article. If we have misread you, tell us and we will look at it.