Cynthia Frelund· Sep 12, 2025
Freeland's model picks Cincinnati to beat Jacksonville by about six at home, New England to win at Miami, and Denver to beat Indianapolis on the strength of its defense; the model also has Minnesota beating Atlanta by three and Pittsburgh beating Seattle by two. She reiterated her Super Bowl pick of the Bills over the Eagles.
“I think Cincinnati wins by more than three and a half points at home against the Jacks.”
said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
7 checkable claims — 5 game outcome picks, 1 conference champion and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 7 have settled, averaging 28.6 out of 100, against 28.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
7 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksNew England PatriotsSep 12, 2025
New England Patriots to beat Miami
“I think New England wins interesting beats Miami”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+194 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NE
- score:
- 33-27
- skill:
- 194
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- MIA
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Conference ChampionsPhiladelphia EaglesSep 12, 2025
Philadelphia Eagles to reach the Super Bowl
“Lls over Eagles?”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- PHI
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE,SEA
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Game Outcome PicksPittsburgh SteelersSep 12, 2025
Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Seattle
“then I have a two point win in favor of Pittsburgh only”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- SEA
- score:
- 31-17
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- PIT
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- PIT
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Game Outcome PicksMinnesota VikingsSep 12, 2025
Minnesota Vikings to beat Atlanta
“Minnesota is at three and a half. I have Minnesota winning by three”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- ATL
- score:
- 22-6
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- MIN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- MIN
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Game Outcome PicksDenver BroncosSep 12, 2025
Denver Broncos to beat Colts
“No, picking the Broncos. It's two and a half points... Mostly the reason I'm picking them is because the Denver Bronco defense is the best unit in this game”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-194 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- IND
- score:
- 28-29
- skill:
- -194
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- IND
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Game Outcome PicksCincinnati BengalsSep 12, 2025
Cincinnati Bengals to beat Jacksonville
“I have them winning by six... so I think Cincinnati wins by more than three and a half points at home against the Jacks.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CIN
- score:
- 27-31
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- CIN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- CIN
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Super Bowl PicksBuffalo BillsSep 12, 2025
Buffalo Bills to win the Super Bowl
“Lls over Eagles? ... and my super Bowl picks won their first games”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champion:
- SEA
- runner up:
- NE
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
What others said about the same people
- Trevor RipleyRoster Spot Calls · Dillon BellMiss · 0Ripley expects Max Brosmer to return to the Vikings on the practice squad after being waived, and thinks Dillon Bell may draw waiver interest but is also a practice squad candidate for Minnesota.
- Bucky BrooksRoster Spot Calls · Josh JohnsonMiss · 0Brooks predicted J.J. McCarthy won't be on the Vikings' roster (traded or released), said Kyler Murray wins the Vikings' QB competition, made a series of 2025 award picks, made 2026 Heisman/draft projections including Arch Manning as the front-runner for the No. 1 overall pick, and said none of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen or Joe Burrow win a championship this season.
- Jeff KerrRoster Spot Calls · Maximus PulleyMiss · 0Kerr ranks the Eagles' eight undrafted free agents by their chances of making the initial 53-man roster, with Kapena Gushiken the most likely and predicts at least one UDFA makes the 53. He also forecasts practice squad spots for Zion Wilson, Deontae Lawson and Maximus Pulley, and a release for long snapper Rocco Underwood.
- Nick WrightGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Nick Wright expects the Bills to beat the Lions comfortably in the Thursday night home opener, with Josh Allen shredding a depleted Detroit secondary, and he also picks a workmanlike Chiefs win over the Colts on Sunday night. He further predicts Tyreek Hill will end up on the Chiefs by around Halloween.
- Steven RuizTrade and Signing Calls · A.J. BrownHit · 100Ruiz expects the Eagles to trade A.J. Brown once the June 1 dead-cap threshold passes, most likely to New England, and thinks Baker Mayfield will get a Buccaneers extension making him the league's highest-paid quarterback within a month or two. He also argues the Lions may have to let one or two of their 2023 draft class leave, and that Houston should extend C.J. Stroud.
- Jason McIntyreTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldMiss · 0Filling in for Colin Cowherd, McIntyre argued the 49ers' window is closed amid a brutal injury list and record travel, floated a Bijan Robinson trade to the Bears, predicted the Lions can win the NFC North, doubted Atlanta is even a playoff team, said Baker Mayfield's Tampa run ends after this season, and delivered a top-10 quarterback ranking.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Tyler SullivanGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsMiss · 0A CBS Sports column flags five Week 2 favorites on upset alert, effectively backing the underdogs — Lions at Bills, Bengals at Texans, Jets over Packers, Jaguars at Broncos and Saints at Ravens — to pull off wins.
- Colin CowherdGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsMiss · 0The co-host (identified only as "Mitchell") gave his own Week 2 picks: Seattle, the Niners in dominant fashion, his Lions over Buffalo, Cincinnati 31-27 at Houston, Chicago, Pittsburgh 24-21 as a road upset, Jacksonville by at least a touchdown, Dallas 26-22, and Kansas City handily.
- Kevin WildesGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsMiss · 0Kevin picked every game and came out with the Bills missing the playoffs, the Texans as the AFC's No. 1 seed and the Seahawks as the NFC's, Dak Prescott as MVP, and the Patriots beating the Lions in the Super Bowl.
- John PluymGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Pluym's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games.
- Matt VerderameGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Verderame's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games.
- Mike KadlickGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Kadlick's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games.