Cynthia Frelund · Sep 12, 2025

Freeland's model picks Cincinnati to beat Jacksonville by about six at home, New England to win at Miami, and Denver to beat Indianapolis on the strength of its defense; the model also has Minnesota beating Atlanta by three and Pittsburgh beating Seattle by two. She reiterated her Super Bowl pick of the Bills over the Eagles.

“I think Cincinnati wins by more than three and a half points at home against the Jacks.”

said on air or in an interview · read the original →

7 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Game Outcome PicksSep 12, 2025
“then I have a two point win in favor of Pittsburgh only”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
SEA
score:
31-17
skill:
0
they picked:
PIT
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
naive pick:
PIT
difficulty:
1.94
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
17
Think this is wrong?
Game Outcome PicksSep 12, 2025
“Minnesota is at three and a half. I have Minnesota winning by three”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
ATL
score:
22-6
skill:
0
they picked:
MIN
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
naive pick:
MIN
difficulty:
1.94
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
17
Think this is wrong?
Game Outcome PicksSep 12, 2025
“No, picking the Broncos. It's two and a half points... Mostly the reason I'm picking them is because the Denver Bronco defense is the best unit in this game”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-194 skill
How this was scored
won:
IND
score:
28-29
skill:
-194
they picked:
DEN
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
naive pick:
IND
difficulty:
1.94
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
17
Think this is wrong?
Game Outcome PicksSep 12, 2025
“I have them winning by six... so I think Cincinnati wins by more than three and a half points at home against the Jacks.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
CIN
score:
27-31
skill:
0
they picked:
CIN
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
naive pick:
CIN
difficulty:
1.94
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
17
Think this is wrong?
Super Bowl PicksSep 12, 2025
“Lls over Eagles? ... and my super Bowl picks won their first games”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
they picked:
BUF
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
champion:
SEA
runner up:
NE
naive pick:
PHI
difficulty:
1.94
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
17
Think this is wrong?
Game Outcome PicksSep 12, 2025
“I think New England wins interesting beats Miami”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Conference ChampionsSep 12, 2025
“Lls over Eagles?”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?