Cynthia Frelund Predictions: Record, Accuracy, Every Take | MissedTakes

Cynthia Frelund

Cynthia Frelund is an American sports analyst for NFL Network who specializes in predictive analysis. She previously worked for ESPN and the NFL's League Office. Her predictions appear regularly on Around the NFL and Move the Sticks, as well as on The Herd with Colin Cowherd. Her work spans game picks through every round of the NFL postseason, fantasy sleepers, player stat projections, and division and conference winners. She covers teams across the league, from the Patriots and Bills to the Chiefs and Eagles, and weighs in on players like Joe Burrow, CeeDee Lamb, and Drake Maye.

Writes at Move the Sticks (podcast)

Every take from Cynthia Frelund, including the ones still waiting →

Is Cynthia Frelund accurate? Across 124 graded calls in 29 articles, Cynthia Frelund scores 61.08% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 14.51, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a limited sample, under thirty graded articles, so treat it with caution.

61.08%

Accuracy

How often they were right.

14.51

MissedTakes Score

Versus a naive guess. 0 means no better.

124

Graded calls

across 29 articles. 4 more not yet settled.

A limited sample — under 30 graded articles.

100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.

Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.

What they call, and how it goes

The record split by kind of claim — five graded calls minimum before a kind shows here. A pundit can be sharp on drafts and ordinary on game picks, and averaging that away is how a number stops meaning anything.

Game Outcome Picks93 graded65 accuracy
Player Season Numbers8 graded18.65 accuracy
Conference Champions5 graded41.67 accuracy

Form

Rolling accuracy over their last fifteen graded calls, in the order the claims were made. The dashed line is their career average — the question this answers is whether the number above is who they are or who they were.

Graded calls · 124

10 of 29 graded articles on this page, newest first — page 1 of 4.

Freeland's model picked the Seattle Seahawks to win Super Bowl 60, by roughly six points, citing the Patriots' offensive line (especially Will Campbell's health at left tackle) as the biggest mismatch.Feb 3, 2026
- Seattle Seahawks to win the Super Bowl
  “I have the Seahawks winning by more than four and a half points... Now the model feels that the Seattle Seahawks win.”
  Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
  How this was scored
  skill:
  100
  they picked:
  SEA
  season:
  2025
  accuracy:
  100
  baseline:
  0
  champion:
  SEA
  runner up:
  NE
  the naive pick:
  PHI
  difficulty:

Freeland picked the Broncos to beat the Chargers, the Rams over the banged-up Cardinals and the Bills over the Jets in Buffalo's stadium finale, while also liking the Texans over Indianapolis and the Eagles. She said Trey Lance would start at quarterback for the Chargers.5 graded calls · Jan 2, 2026

Los Angeles Rams to beat Arizona Cardinals
“The Rams... The Arizona Cardinals are so banged up their defense... I think that the Rams need to dial in.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
LAR
score:
20-37
skill:
0
they picked:
LAR
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
LAR
difficulty:
1.06
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
1
Think this grade is wrong?
Houston Texans to beat Indianapolis
“I think the Houston number against Indianapolis... conceding the like ten and a half in that situation, feels pretty solid.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
HOU
score:
30-38
skill:
0
they picked:
HOU
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
HOU
difficulty:
1.06
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
1
Think this grade is wrong?
Denver Broncos to beat Chargers
“I think that the Denver and the Chargers. I think Denver it's a it's a lofty number at twelve and a half. But the Broncos they want to secure the one.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
DEN
score:
3-19
skill:
0
they picked:
DEN
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
DEN
difficulty:
1.06
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
1
Think this grade is wrong?
Buffalo Bills to beat Jets
“You have the Bills minus seven, you have the Rams, and then you have the Broncos.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
BUF
score:
8-35
skill:
0
they picked:
BUF
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
BUF
difficulty:
1.06
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
1
Think this grade is wrong?
Trey Lance to be 1st on the depth chart
“especially now that we know that the Chargers they are not playing their starters. It's going to be Trey Lance.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 91.67+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
LAC
skill:
0
player:
Trey Lance
season:
2025
accuracy:
91.67
baseline:
91.67
position:
QB
naive slot:
3
actual slot:
2
difficulty:
1.06
measured by:
passing yards
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
1

Freeland's model has the Chargers winning straight up in Dallas, the Texans winning big over the Raiders and going on to win the AFC South, the Lions beating the Steelers by six, the Saints beating the Jets, and the Packers beating the Bears; she also sees the AFC's Super Bowl representative being either Denver or Houston.8 graded calls · Dec 19, 2025

Houston Texans to beat Raiders
“Cynthia's picks to recap. She's got the Texans minus two touchdowns fourteen... they have an eighty one percent chance”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
HOU
score:
21-23
skill:
0
they picked:
HOU
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
HOU
difficulty:
1.17
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
3
Think this grade is wrong?
New Orleans Saints to beat Jets
“So it's four and a half points at home. The Saints are favored over the Jets, and I think what I've seen from Tyler Shuck in this situation...”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
NO
score:
6-29
skill:
0
they picked:
NO
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
NO
difficulty:
1.17
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
3
Think this grade is wrong?
Detroit Lions to beat Steelers
“I have them only winning by six... Fifty seven percent”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
PIT
score:
29-24
skill:
0
they picked:
DET
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
DET
difficulty:
1.17
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
3
Think this grade is wrong?
Green Bay Packers to beat Bears
“Cause I like the Packers to cover... I just think that the Packers show the Bears why they're still the classes A division.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-117 skill
How this was scored
won:
CHI
score:
16-22
skill:
-117
they picked:
GB
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
CHI
difficulty:
1.17
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
3
Think this grade is wrong?
Houston Texans to reach the Super Bowl
“I think that the configuration of the super Bowl team for the AFC, it's going to be all defense... it's either the Broncos or the Texans.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
they picked:
HOU
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
champions:
NE,SEA
difficulty:
1.17
the naive guess:
last season's conference champions
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
3
reached the Super Bowl:
no
lost the conference final:
no
Think this grade is wrong?
Denver Broncos to reach the Super Bowl
“I think that the configuration of the super Bowl team for the AFC, it's going to be all defense... it's either the Broncos or the Texans.”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 0+58.5 skill
How this was scored
skill:
58.5
they picked:
DEN
season:
2025
accuracy:
50
baseline:
0
champions:
NE,SEA
difficulty:
1.17
the naive guess:
last season's conference champions
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
3
reached the Super Bowl:
no
lost the conference final:
yes
Think this grade is wrong?
Houston Texans to win the division
“The Texans need it in order to ascend to the top of the ASC South, which I AFC South, which I anticipate that they end up doing.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
HOU
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
HOU
difficulty:
1.17
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
3
won the division:
no
Think this grade is wrong?
Los Angeles Chargers to beat Cowboys
“My model has a straight up win for the Chargers.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+117 skill
How this was scored
won:
LAC
score:
34-17
skill:
117
they picked:
LAC
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
DAL
difficulty:
1.17
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
3
Think this grade is wrong?

Frelund picks Houston to beat Arizona by more than ten, the Giants over Washington, and Dallas to cover against Minnesota; she also expects the 49ers to make the playoffs as a wild card and has San Francisco winning 30-16 over Tennessee.5 graded calls · Dec 11, 2025

Houston Texans to beat Arizona
“I'm just gonna go with Houston to win by more than ten.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
HOU
score:
20-40
skill:
0
they picked:
HOU
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
HOU
difficulty:
1.22
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
4
Think this grade is wrong?
Dallas Cowboys to beat Minnesota
“I'm picking Dallas to cover five and a half.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
MIN
score:
34-26
skill:
0
they picked:
DAL
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
DAL
difficulty:
1.22
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
4
Think this grade is wrong?
San Francisco 49ers 30 — Titans 16
“I have thirty sixteen. So and you know, my mom and... your model is very conservative.”
Hit · 98Scored 97.62a naive guess scored 73.88+28.97 skill
How this was scored
score:
24-37
skill:
28.97
they picked:
SF
season:
2025
accuracy:
97.62
baseline:
73.88
difficulty:
1.22
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
13
weeks left when called:
4
naive home margin:
2.03
predicted margin:
14
Think this grade is wrong?
New York Giants to beat Washington
“My number two is a number two, as in the spread is number is two Washington and the Giants... I'm gonna take the Giants.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
WAS
score:
29-21
skill:
0
they picked:
NYG
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
NYG
difficulty:
1.22
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
4
Think this grade is wrong?
San Francisco 49ers to make the playoffs
“You know that they're gonna get in the as a wild card and face Green Bay in the first round”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+122 skill
How this was scored
team:
SF
skill:
122
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive guess said:
no
difficulty:
1.22
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
yes
weeks left when called:
4
Think this grade is wrong?

Freeland picks the Chiefs to edge the Texans, the Bills to beat the Bengals at home by more than a field goal, Washington to win at Minnesota regardless of quarterback, and the Browns to beat the Titans by five or more.5 graded calls · Dec 5, 2025

Buffalo Bills to beat Bengals
“I see the numbers five and a half for Buffalo at home... I think that this is where the Bills at home the might... I think the Bills need to keep it together.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
BUF
score:
34-39
skill:
0
they picked:
BUF
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
BUF
difficulty:
1.28
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
5
Think this grade is wrong?
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Texans
“And then also Patrick Mahomes's ability to scramble just narrowly puts them over the top... I know you're on the other side of that least in terms of wins”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
HOU
score:
20-10
skill:
0
they picked:
KC
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
KC
difficulty:
1.28
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
5
Think this grade is wrong?
Washington Commanders to beat Minnesota
“I don't care which which Washington quarterback is playing. Washington wins this one.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-128 skill
How this was scored
won:
MIN
score:
0-31
skill:
-128
they picked:
WAS
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
MIN
difficulty:
1.28
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
5
Think this grade is wrong?
Cleveland Browns to beat Titans
“My last one's gonna be the Browns... So they need to win by five points more, got it? That's what I'm taking”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
TEN
score:
31-29
skill:
0
they picked:
CLE
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
CLE
difficulty:
1.28
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
5
Think this grade is wrong?
Denver Broncos to beat Raiders
“I'm I'm completely with you. (on Denver minus seven and a half)”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+128 skill
How this was scored
won:
DEN
score:
24-17
skill:
128
they picked:
DEN
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
LV
difficulty:
1.28
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
5
Think this grade is wrong?