Mike Florio· Sep 9, 2026
Florio gives score predictions for every Week 1 game of the 2026 NFL season, including an opening-night upset by the Patriots in Seattle and narrow home wins for the Giants and Chiefs.
“I'd rather be wrong by being bold than to take the chalk and regret missing the potential signs for an opening-night upset.”
published in writing · NBC Sports · read the original →
16 checkable claims — 16 score predictions — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 16 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 16 have settled, averaging 61.5 out of 100, against 52.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
The games in this take
- Patriots at Seahawks 33 calls
- 49ers at Rams 37 calls
- Ravens at Colts 24 calls
- Browns at Jaguars 26 calls
- Falcons at Steelers 34 calls
- Jets at Titans 25 calls
- Saints at Lions 22 calls
- Buccaneers at Bengals 31 calls
- Bears at Panthers 28 calls
- Bills at Texans 46 calls
- Cardinals at Chargers 23 calls
- Commanders at Eagles 31 calls
- Packers at Vikings 41 calls
- Dolphins at Raiders 34 calls
- Cowboys at Giants 42 calls
- Broncos at Chiefs 45 calls
16 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Score PredictionsKansas City ChiefsSep 9, 2026
Kansas City Chiefs 20 — Broncos 17
“Chiefs 20, Broncos 17.”
Close · 57Scored 57.14a naive guess scored 51.93+10.42 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 10-31
- skill:
- 10.42
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 57.14
- baseline:
- 51.93
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 21
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- 0.81
- predicted margin:
- 3
- Score PredictionsMinnesota VikingsSep 9, 2026
Minnesota Vikings 30 — Packers 20
“Vikings 30, Packers 20.”
Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 58.25+50.16 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 22-39
- skill:
- 50.16
- they picked:
- MIN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 58.25
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 17
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- -0.53
- predicted margin:
- 10
- Score PredictionsDetroit LionsSep 9, 2026
Detroit Lions 34 — Saints 24
“Lions 34, Saints 24.”
Close · 79Scored 78.57a naive guess scored 96.35-35.56 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 30-31
- skill:
- -35.56
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 78.57
- baseline:
- 96.35
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- -0.53
- predicted margin:
- 10
- Score PredictionsHouston TexansSep 9, 2026
Houston Texans 20 — Bills 16
“Texans 20, Bills 16.”
Close · 48Scored 47.62a naive guess scored 36.83+21.59 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 36-31
- skill:
- 21.59
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 47.62
- baseline:
- 36.83
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- -0.53
- predicted margin:
- 4
- Score PredictionsCincinnati BengalsSep 9, 2026
Cincinnati Bengals 27 — Buccaneers 24
“Bengals 27, Buccaneers 24.”
Hit · 93Scored 92.86a naive guess scored 84.44+16.83 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 27-33
- skill:
- 16.83
- they picked:
- CIN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 92.86
- baseline:
- 84.44
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 6
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- -0.53
- predicted margin:
- 3
- Score PredictionsChicago BearsSep 9, 2026
Chicago Bears 24 — Panthers 17
“Bears 24, Panthers 17.”
Close · 64Scored 64.29a naive guess scored 0+128.57 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 59-37
- skill:
- 128.57
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 64.29
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 22
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- -0.53
- predicted margin:
- 7
- Score PredictionsNew York GiantsSep 9, 2026
New York Giants 23 — Cowboys 21
“Giants 23, Cowboys 21.”
Hit · 86Scored 85.71a naive guess scored 79.68+12.06 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 20-28
- skill:
- 12.06
- they picked:
- NYG
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 85.71
- baseline:
- 79.68
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 8
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- -0.53
- predicted margin:
- 2
- Score PredictionsBaltimore RavensSep 9, 2026
Baltimore Ravens 24 — Colts 20
“Ravens 24, Colts 20.”
Close · 67Scored 66.67a naive guess scored 5.87+121.59 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 41-23
- skill:
- 121.59
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 66.67
- baseline:
- 5.87
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- -0.53
- predicted margin:
- 4
- Score PredictionsPhiladelphia EaglesSep 9, 2026
Philadelphia Eagles 27 — Commanders 14
“Eagles 27, Commanders 14.”
Close · 74Scored 73.81a naive guess scored 93.97-40.32 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 22-24
- skill:
- -40.32
- they picked:
- PHI
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 73.81
- baseline:
- 93.97
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- -0.53
- predicted margin:
- 13
- Score PredictionsPittsburgh SteelersSep 9, 2026
Pittsburgh Steelers 21 — Falcons 10
“Steelers 21, Falcons 10.”
Hit · 90Scored 90.48a naive guess scored 82.06+16.83 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 13-20
- skill:
- 16.83
- they picked:
- PIT
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 90.48
- baseline:
- 82.06
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 7
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- -0.53
- predicted margin:
- 11
- Score PredictionsLos Angeles ChargersSep 9, 2026
Los Angeles Chargers 27 — Cardinals 10
“Chargers 27, Cardinals 10.”
Miss · 38Scored 38.1a naive guess scored 20.16+35.87 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 26-14
- skill:
- 35.87
- they picked:
- LAC
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 38.1
- baseline:
- 20.16
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 12
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- -0.53
- predicted margin:
- 17
- Score PredictionsMiami DolphinsSep 9, 2026
Miami Dolphins 13 — Raiders 10
“Dolphins 13, Raiders 10.”
Miss · 24Scored 23.81a naive guess scored 65.4-83.17 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 13-27
- skill:
- -83.17
- they picked:
- MIA
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 23.81
- baseline:
- 65.4
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 14
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- -0.53
- predicted margin:
- 3
- Score PredictionsTennessee TitansSep 9, 2026
Tennessee Titans 20 — Jets 17
“Titans 20, Jets 17.”
Miss · 26Scored 26.19a naive guess scored 17.78+16.83 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 23-10
- skill:
- 16.83
- they picked:
- TEN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 26.19
- baseline:
- 17.78
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 13
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- -0.53
- predicted margin:
- 3
- Score PredictionsJacksonville JaguarsSep 9, 2026
Jacksonville Jaguars 28 — Browns 14
“Jaguars 28, Browns 14.”
Close · 76Scored 76.19a naive guess scored 50+52.38 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 10-34
- skill:
- 52.38
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 76.19
- baseline:
- 50
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 24
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- -0.53
- predicted margin:
- 14
- Score PredictionsLos Angeles RamsSep 9, 2026
Los Angeles Rams 24 — 49ers 13
“Rams 24, 49ers 13.”
Miss · 29Scored 28.57a naive guess scored 0+57.14 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 27-7
- skill:
- 57.14
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 28.57
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 20
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- -8.5
- predicted margin:
- 11
- Score PredictionsNew England PatriotsSep 9, 2026
New England Patriots 24 — Seahawks 21
“Patriots 24, Seahawks 21.”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 100-100 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 10-13
- skill:
- -100
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- 3
- predicted margin:
- 3
What others said about the same people
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Kyler MurrayHit · 100Fitzmaurice touts Kyler Murray as a value QB who will start Week 1 for Minnesota, Tyler Shough as the Saints' undisputed starter, and Juwan Johnson and Terrance Ferguson as late-round tight end targets.
- John ShipleyRoster Spot Calls · Jack KiserMiss · 0Shipley projects a full 16-player (plus one international/exemption spot) Jaguars practice squad for 2026, naming specific players at each position he expects to land there.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Kyler MurrayHit · 100Fitzmaurice expects Kyler Murray to be Minnesota's Week 1 starter and calls him one of the better quarterback values in 2026 drafts; he also views Jordan Love as a top-10 real-life quarterback but only a QB2 in fantasy.
- Nathan JahnkeDepth Chart Calls · Jalen TolbertMiss · 0PFF's preseason fantasy recap makes a large number of depth-chart, role and fantasy-value calls across the league, including Chig Okonkwo as a top sleeper tight end, Tre Tucker as the Raiders' top receiver, and various backfield hierarchies.
- Emmett MatasovskyDepth Chart Calls · Christian IzienMiss · 0Matasovsky says Dobbs is currently leading the backup quarterback race and suggests Christian Izien may be pressed into a starting safety role in Week 1 while Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph rehab.
- Nathan JahnkeDepth Chart Calls · Jalen TolbertMiss · 0PFF's fantasy football preseason recap projects depth-chart outcomes, roster spots and fantasy value for numerous players across several preseason games, including Chig Okonkwo's expanded role in Washington, Ja'Kobi Lane as Baltimore's WR3, Malachi Fields winning the Giants' starting X job, and Zachariah Branch being a fantasy bust relative to his late-round cost.
More score predictions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Jared DubinScore Predictions · Denver BroncosMiss · 2Dubin picks Denver to win narrowly in Kansas City, 21-20.
- Tyler SullivanScore Predictions · Denver BroncosMiss · 10Sullivan picks Denver to beat Kansas City 24-20.
- Jordan DajaniScore Predictions · Denver BroncosMiss · 7Dajani picks the Broncos over the Chiefs, 17-14.
- John BreechScore Predictions · Denver BroncosMiss · 5In the Pick Six newsletter, Breech picks the Broncos to upset the Chiefs on Monday night, 23-21.
- Jared DubinScore Predictions · Denver BroncosMiss · 2The unbylined CBS Sports preview picks Denver to win at Arrowhead in Week 1, 21-20, and expects Kenneth Walker III to be Kansas City's lead back while Jaylen Waddle serves as Bo Nix's top receiving target in Denver.
- Jordan DajaniScore Predictions · Denver BroncosMiss · 7Dajani picks the Rams over the 49ers, Texans over Bills, Ravens over Colts, Bengals over Buccaneers, Vikings over Packers, Cowboys over Giants and Broncos over Chiefs in Week 1, with exact scores. He also predicts the Bills win the AFC East, the Cowboys win their division, and Caleb Downs wins Defensive Rookie of the Year.