Andrew Erickson · Feb 5, 2026

Erickson takes the Patriots with the points and thinks they win the Super Bowl outright, says Jaxon Smith-Njigba will most likely win Offensive Player of the Year, and makes Treveon Henderson catching at least one pass his best bet.

“I'm taking the Patriots with the points at plus four and a half, and ultimately I think that they're going to win this game.”

said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →

4 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Award PicksFeb 5, 2026
“JSN is gonna win Offensive Player of the Year most likely for a reason because he's really freaking good”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
award:
offensive_player_of_the_year
naive:
the naive pick was Saquon Barkley, who won it the year before
skill:
100
player:
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
season:
2025
winner:
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
correct:
true
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersFeb 5, 2026
“Travvon Henderson to go over half a reception... Henderson is going to catch at least one pass. I think he's gonna catch more than one pass actually”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 14.14-14.14 skill
How this was scored
naive:
19.97
skill:
-14.14
what happened:
35
player:
TreVeyon Henderson
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
14.14
predicted:
1
statistic:
receptions
difficulty:
1
last season:
no prior season
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
position average:
19.97
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Super Bowl PicksFeb 5, 2026
“I'm taking the Patriots with the points at plus four and a half, and ultimately I think that they're going to win this game... I think that there's a lot of value on the Patriots just to win outright.”
Scored 50a naive guess scored 0+50 skill
How this was scored
skill:
50
they picked:
NE
season:
2025
accuracy:
50
baseline:
0
champion:
SEA
runner up:
NE
naive pick:
PHI
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Game Outcome PicksFeb 5, 2026
“So I just I like the Patriots of them money line.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
SEA
score:
29-13
skill:
0
they picked:
NE
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
naive pick:
NE
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?