Andrew Erickson· Feb 5, 2026
Erickson takes the Patriots with the points and thinks they win the Super Bowl outright, says Jaxon Smith-Njigba will most likely win Offensive Player of the Year, and makes Treveon Henderson catching at least one pass his best bet.
“I'm taking the Patriots with the points at plus four and a half, and ultimately I think that they're going to win this game.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
4 checkable claims — 1 award pick, 1 game outcome pick, 1 player season number and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 4 have settled, averaging 37.5 out of 100, against 3.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
4 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba to win Offensive Player of the Year
“JSN is gonna win Offensive Player of the Year most likely for a reason because he's really freaking good”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- offensive_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Saquon Barkley, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 100
- player:
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
TreVeyon Henderson to record 1 receptions
“Travvon Henderson to go over half a reception... Henderson is going to catch at least one pass. I think he's gonna catch more than one pass actually”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 14.14-14.14 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 19.97
- skill:
- -14.14
- what happened:
- 35
- player:
- TreVeyon Henderson
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 14.14
- predicted:
- 1
- statistic:
- receptions
- difficulty:
- 1
- last season:
- no prior season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- position average:
- 19.97
- zero at percent out:
- 50
- Super Bowl PicksNew England PatriotsFeb 5, 2026
New England Patriots to win the Super Bowl
“I'm taking the Patriots with the points at plus four and a half, and ultimately I think that they're going to win this game... I think that there's a lot of value on the Patriots just to win outright.”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 0+50 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 50
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 0
- champion:
- SEA
- runner up:
- NE
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Game Outcome PicksNew England PatriotsFeb 5, 2026
New England Patriots to beat Seahawks
“So I just I like the Patriots of them money line.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- SEA
- score:
- 29-13
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- NE
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
What others said about the same people
- Michael HanichGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Hanich argues the Week 2 road game at Arizona is not a true trap game, citing Seattle's long winning streak in the series, Mike Macdonald's preparation and injuries in the Cardinals' secondary, and rates his confidence in the Seahawks at 7. He also suggests safety Nick Emmanwori may miss a second straight game.
- Chris BroussardGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Brew stood by the Lions as division winners and playoff team, picked the Texans over Cincinnati, the Bears over Minnesota, the Patriots to beat Pittsburgh with a solid Drake Maye game, flagged Jacksonville over Denver as his upset alert, and said he still feels good about the Ravens winning the AFC.
- Rich EisenGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Eisen picked Josh Allen to lead the NFL in total touchdowns over any QB-WR or QB-RB combo, flipped from the Lions to the Bears as NFC North winner, and made several Week 2 game calls, including the Patriots at home, the Jets over Green Bay, and both LA teams winning. He also picked a Jaguars-Broncos AFC title game.
- Connor "Boston Connor" CampbellGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Connor predicted the Patriots would rout the Steelers at home in Week 2, expecting a heavy run game in bad weather.
- Jordan DajaniScore Predictions · New England PatriotsClose · 67Dajani has New England edging Pittsburgh 16-13 and the Rams beating the Giants 30-21 on a late field goal.
- Jonas KnoxGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Knox took the Bears to cover against the Vikings, said New England would probably beat Pittsburgh even while taking the points, picked the Bengals to win outright in Houston, and took the Broncos over the Jaguars and the Rams over the Giants.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Jared DubinGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Dubin picks the Rams to beat the Giants on Monday Night Football, sticking with preseason expectations over Week 1 overreaction. He gives two conditional scores depending on whether Puka Nacua plays: a comfortable 27-17 win if Nacua suits up, and a narrow 17-16 win if he sits.
- Dan OrlovskyGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Orlovsky said that even without Puka Nacua the Rams would find a way to beat the Giants on Monday night, though he thought the Giants would keep it within a touchdown.
- Patricia TrainaGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsMiss · 0In her weekly Giants mailbag, Traina said the Giants would beat the Rams if Los Angeles didn't play its best, predicted Aaron Donald wouldn't play a full game Monday night, and said she doesn't expect Paulson Adebo to still be with the Giants in 2027.
- Danny ParkinsGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsMiss · 0Parkins picked the Giants to beat the Rams outright, backed Jacksonville over Denver, Cincinnati over Houston and Chicago over Minnesota in the chips segment, endorsed Buffalo as the AFC's Super Bowl representative, and predicted Deshaun Watson has started his last NFL game.
- Rich EisenGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Eisen picked Josh Allen to lead the NFL in total touchdowns over any QB-WR or QB-RB combo, flipped from the Lions to the Bears as NFC North winner, and made several Week 2 game calls, including the Patriots at home, the Jets over Green Bay, and both LA teams winning. He also picked a Jaguars-Broncos AFC title game.
- Brady QuinnGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100In the weekly Picks Against the Spread segment, Quinn took the Vikings to beat the Bears outright, the Bengals to win outright in Houston, the Broncos to beat the Jaguars while laying points, and the Rams to beat the Giants while laying seven.