TJ Jefferson· Sep 3, 2025
TJ Jefferson picked the Lions to win the NFC North, with the Packers second, Vikings third and Bears fourth, and also raised his Cowboys win total prediction to 12-5.
“I just don't see any reason not to believe that the Lions are gonna take this.”
said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast) · read the original →
3 checkable claims — 1 division winner, 1 power ranking and 1 season win total — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 3 have settled, averaging 10 out of 100, against 31.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
3 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Division WinnersDetroit LionsSep 3, 2025
Detroit Lions to win the division
“I just don't see any reason not to believe that the Lions are gonna take this.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- DET
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
- Power RankingsSep 3, 2025
“I got the bears fourth... I got the vikings finishing third... I'm gonna put the Packers in it too... I just don't see any reason not to believe that the Lions are gonna take this.”
Miss · 30Scored 30a naive guess scored 10+40 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 40
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 30
- baseline:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsDallas CowboysSep 3, 2025
Dallas Cowboys to finish with 12 wins
“I might bump it up to twelve... and TJ's now twelve and five.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 85-170 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- DAL
- naive:
- 7.75
- skill:
- -170
- what happened:
- 7
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 85
- predicted:
- 12
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
What others said about the same people
- Randy GurziRoster Spot Calls · Reddy StewardMiss · 0Gurzi predicts the Cowboys' 17-man practice squad, naming each player he expects Dallas to sign, including a surprise addition of released Giants tackle Evan Neal. He also predicts Jaydon Blue will be claimed off waivers by another team and that Sam Williams will land elsewhere.
- Jeff CavanaughRoster Spot Calls · Curtis RobinsonMiss · 0Building his projected Cowboys 53-man roster on defense, Jeff keeps five interior linemen (Kenny Clark, Quentin, Tito Obonia, LT Overton, Bullard), six edge rushers including Von Miller, Malachi Lawrence and Marist Liufau while cutting Sam Williams, four linebackers with Jayshawn Barham starting, six corners including rookie Devin Moore, and four safeties including Marquise Bell.
- Charean WilliamsRoster Spot Calls · Israel AbanikandaMiss · 0Williams expects the Cowboys to elevate practice squad running back Israel Abanikanda to the active roster for Sunday's season opener after Malik Davis's hip injury.
- Matt DeryRoster Spot Calls · Tom KennedyMiss · 0Derry predicted a Lions win over the Saints by a 24-20 score, with the Saints covering the 7.5-point spread.
- Randy GurziRoster Spot Calls · Nick LeverettMiss · 0Gurzi writes that Tyler Smith's thumb surgery will land him on IR to start the season with a return around midseason, that capable backup T.J. Bass will step in along the interior line, and that practice squad lineman Nick Leverett should be elevated for Week 1 and could be added to the active roster.
- Christian BooherRoster Spot Calls · Tom KennedyMiss · 0Booher lays out a projected Detroit Lions offensive depth chart ahead of the 2026 regular season, naming starters, backups and practice squad members at every offensive position.
More division winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Daniel DiBerardinisDivision Winners · Atlanta FalconsMiss · 0Danny D predicts Sonny Styles goes in the top ten (maybe top five), doesn't think Ty Simpson goes before late first round, says Kenyon Sadiq lands with the Rams at 13, and picks the Falcons to win the NFC South while naming the Bengals an AFC bounce-back team. He also gives a Final Four of Michigan, Florida, Purdue and Arizona with Michigan winning.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · New York GiantsMiss · 0Cowherd projects the NFC East with the Giants winning the division ahead of Philadelphia, Washington and Dallas, pegging the Cowboys as a six- or seven-win team. He also expects Malik Willis to land a big free-agent deal, Kayvon Thibodeaux to be moved, and Baltimore to lose Isaiah Likely, and he floats the Rams reaching on Ty Simpson late in round one.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · Los Angeles ChargersMiss · 0Cowherd unveiled his top 10 NFL teams entering next season, with Seattle first, the Rams second and the Chiefs tenth, and separately picked the Chargers to win the AFC West.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · Baltimore RavensMiss · 0Cowherd likes Jacksonville, Chicago and Pittsburgh (with DK Metcalf back) in the wild-card round, ranks the league's head coaches with McVay first and Ben Johnson seventh, and predicts Lamar Jackson has about two strong years left. He also names the Rams as a possible team to draft a receiver and floats next year's draft having seven first-round quarterbacks.
- Danny ParkinsDivision Winners · Baltimore RavensMiss · 0Parkins lays the points with the Eagles and Cowboys, takes Baltimore to beat Pittsburgh and win the AFC North, picks Carolina over Tampa Bay and Seattle over San Francisco, and says he'd probably pick the Rams to come out of the NFC.
- Rich EisenDivision Winners · Jacksonville JaguarsHit · 100Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. He also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.