Colin Cowherd· Jan 29, 2026
Cowherd argues Sam Darnold belongs in the top ten of quarterbacks and predicts he'll win the Super Bowl with Seattle; he also expects Jim Harbaugh's Giants to make the playoffs next year, the Raiders to take Fernando Mendoza with the No. 1 pick, and says Bill Belichick will eventually make the Hall of Fame.
“But I don't think it's crazy to say that Sam Darnold hoists a trophy. You gotta put him in the top ten.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
5 checkable claims — 1 mock draft pick, 1 playoff pick, 1 positional finishe, 1 super bowl pick and 1 team draft slot call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 71.7 out of 100, against 66.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
positional finish10They said
5What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Positional FinishesSam DarnoldSeattle SeahawksJan 29, 2026
Sam Darnold to finish top 10 at his position, by passing yards
“But I don't think it's crazy to say that Sam Darnold hoists a trophy. You gotta put him in the top ten.”
Close · 58Scored 58.33a naive guess scored 100-41.67 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -41.67
- player:
- Sam Darnold
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 58.33
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- passing yards
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 5
- actual finish:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- predicted finish:
- 10
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“They'll get Fernando Mendoza with a number one pick.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Playoff PicksNew York GiantsJan 29, 2026
New York Giants to make the playoffs
“I think Harbaugh's going to crush it with the Giants. They're going to be a playoff team next year.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NYG
- skill:
- -100
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Super Bowl PicksSeattle SeahawksJan 29, 2026
Seattle Seahawks to win the Super Bowl
“Seems like to me, hoisting a trophy in about ten twelve days. Have to reconsider where we put him.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- champion:
- SEA
- runner up:
- NE
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Team Draft Slot CallsLas Vegas RaidersJan 29, 2026
Las Vegas Raiders to pick at number 1
“They'll get Fernando Mendoza with a number one pick.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 80.52+19.48 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LV
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- they picked 6 the year before
- skill:
- 19.48
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 80.52
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
What others said about the same people
- Fernando Alfaro-DonisTrade and Signing Calls · Kayshon BoutteMiss · 0Argues the Raiders' weakest spot is their receiver room, expects Jalen Nailor to take a big step forward in Klint Kubiak's scheme with Kirk Cousins starting before Fernando Mendoza takes over, and suggests Las Vegas should trade a mid-round pick for Patriots receiver Kayshon Boutte, who would immediately become their top option.
- Brandon CarneyTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsMiss · 0Carney drafted a team of rookies he expects to make an immediate fantasy impact (headlined by Karnell Tate and Makai Lemon), predicted landing spots for the remaining big-name free agents, and gave way-too-early division winners, wild cards and award picks — Patriots, Chargers, Bengals, Jaguars, Eagles, Rams, Vikings and Saints as division champs with Joe Burrow as MVP.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Fernando MendozaHit · 100Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Steve MenschMock Draft Picks · Spencer FanoHit · 84Making the even-numbered picks in the mock, he sent Arvell Reese to the Jets at No. 2, Spencer Fano to the Giants at 5, Jordan Tyson to the Saints at 8, a Tennessee cornerback to Miami at 11, Keldric Faulk to Baltimore at 14, Akheem Mesidor to Dallas at 20, Kenyon Sadiq to Philadelphia at 23, Caleb Banks to Buffalo at 26, Ty Simpson to the Rams at 29 and Chris Johnson to Seattle at 32, plus Caleb Lomu to Detroit at 17.
- Chad Ochocinco JohnsonTrade and Signing Calls · George PickensMiss · 0Johnson predicted Ja'Marr Chase would go over 74.5 receiving yards against the Steelers, said the Bengals can beat Pittsburgh in a close, low-scoring game, and forecast that George Pickens will leave Dallas in free agency and sign with the Raiders.
- Richard ShermanSeason Win Totals · New York GiantsMiss · 20Sherman previewed every division: he picked Seattle to win the NFC West on a tiebreaker over San Francisco (both 11-11 wins), the Lions over the Packers in the North, the Eagles to run away with the East, Tampa Bay in the South, and Kansas City, Buffalo and the Ravens' division rivals in the AFC. He picked an Eagles–Chiefs Super Bowl with Philadelphia repeating, Joe Burrow for MVP, and gave a top-five power ranking.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Lance ZierleinMock Draft Picks · Jeremiyah LoveHit · 100Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 92Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day.
- Bucky BrooksMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 81In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13.