Cowherd argues Sam Darnold belongs in the top ten of quarterbacks and predicts he'll win the Super Bowl with Seattle; he also expects Jim Harbaugh's Giants to make the playoffs next year, the Raiders to take Fernando Mendoza with the No. 1 pick, and says Bill Belichick will eventually make the Hall of Fame.

7 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

• Positional FinishesJan 29, 2026

  “But I don't think it's crazy to say that Sam Darnold hoists a trophy. You gotta put him in the top ten.”

  Scored 58.33a naive guess scored 100-41.67 skill
  How this was scored

  skill:

  -41.67

  player:

  Sam Darnold

  season:

  2025

  zero at:

  12

  accuracy:

  58.33

  baseline:

  100

  position:

  QB

  ranked by:

  passing yards

  difficulty:

  1

  naive basis:

  where he finished last season

  weeks in the season:

  18

  naive finish:

  5

  actual finish:

  5

  weeks left when called:

  0

  predicted finish:

  10

  Think this is wrong?

• Mock Draft PicksJan 29, 2026

  “They'll get Fernando Mendoza with a number one pick.”

  Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
  How this was scored

  draft:

  2026

  naive:

  a shuffled mock scores 50

  player:

  Fernando Mendoza

  season:

  2025

  zero at:

  32

  accuracy:

  100

  baseline:

  50

  actual pick:

  1

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  pick accuracy:

  100

  predicted pick:

  1

  weeks left when called:

  0

  mock ordering score:

  only one pick — no order to score

  Think this is wrong?

• Playoff PicksJan 29, 2026

  “I think Harbaugh's going to crush it with the Giants. They're going to be a playoff team next year.”

  Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
  How this was scored

  team:

  NYG

  skill:

  -100

  season:

  2025

  accuracy:

  0

  baseline:

  100

  naive said:

  false

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  made playoffs:

  false

  weeks left when called:

  0

  Think this is wrong?

• Super Bowl PicksJan 29, 2026

  “Seems like to me, hoisting a trophy in about ten twelve days. Have to reconsider where we put him.”

  Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
  How this was scored

  skill:

  100

  they picked:

  SEA

  season:

  2025

  accuracy:

  100

  baseline:

  0

  champion:

  SEA

  runner up:

  NE

  naive pick:

  PHI

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  weeks left when called:

  0

  Think this is wrong?

• Team Draft Slot CallsJan 29, 2026

  “They'll get Fernando Mendoza with a number one pick.”

  Scored 100a naive guess scored 80.52+19.48 skill
  How this was scored

  team:

  LV

  draft:

  2026

  naive:

  they picked 6 the year before

  skill:

  19.48

  season:

  2025

  zero at:

  32

  accuracy:

  100

  baseline:

  80.52

  actual pick:

  1

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  predicted pick:

  1

  weeks left when called:

  0

  Think this is wrong?

• Pro Bowl and All-Pro CallsJan 29, 2026

  “He's going to get in. This is not Pete Rose.”

  Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.

  Think this is wrong?

• Trade and Signing CallsJan 29, 2026

  “Jannis from the Bucks is ready to be dealt and the Bucks are now ready to listen to offers... I think with the new aprons, the prohibitive factors, you're still gonna be able to sell him.”

  Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.

  Think this is wrong?