Marcus Mosher· Dec 31, 2024
Mosher's Week 18 power rankings for the 2024 season, ordering all 32 NFL teams with Kansas City first and the Giants last. Along the way he predicts Washington beats Dallas in Week 18, expects Atlanta to miss the playoffs and Indianapolis to miss as well, says Houston will host a playoff game as a likely heavy underdog, expects the Rams to host a home playoff game, and thinks Jerod Mayo could be a one-and-done coach.
“It's hard to imagine anyone going into Kansas City and beating them in the playoffs at this point.”
published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived Dec 31, 2024) →
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.
6 checkable claims — 3 playoff picks, 1 game outcome pick, 1 power ranking and 1 surprise team call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
4 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 99.7 out of 100, against 66.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
6 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksWashington CommandersDec 31, 2024
Washington Commanders to win
“With a win against Dallas in Week 18, they can win 12 games and clinch the No. 6 seed in the NFC. That is easier said than done... But look for Dan Quinn's squad to get that done this time around.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+106 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- WAS
- score:
- 23-19
- skill:
- 106
- they picked:
- WAS
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- DAL
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 1
- Power RankingsDec 31, 2024
“Here are our updated power rankings going into the final week of the 2024 season: NFL Week 17 Power Rankings 1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1) ... 32. New York Giants (3-13)”
Hit · 99Scored 98.81a naive guess scored 67.38+33.32 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 33.32
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 98.81
- baseline:
- 67.38
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 32
- weeks left when called:
- 1
- Playoff PicksHouston TexansDec 31, 2024
Houston Texans to make the playoffs
“Houston will still host a playoff game in Round 1, but don't be surprised if it is a heavy underdog in that matchup.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- HOU
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 1
- Playoff PicksLos Angeles RamsDec 31, 2024
Los Angeles Rams to make the playoffs
“The Rams have turned things around in the second half of the season and will be back in the postseason... the fact that they will be hosting a home playoff game is pretty wild”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LAR
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 1
- Playoff PicksIndianapolis ColtsDec 31, 2024
Indianapolis Colts to make the playoffs
“The Colts will not reach the postseason again, and we can only assume big changes will happen this offseason.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Surprise Team CallsAtlanta FalconsDec 31, 2024
Atlanta Falcons to beat expectations
“Now, the Falcons don't control their own destiny in the NFC South, and it's become likely that they will miss the postseason again.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Ralph VacchianoDepth Chart Calls · Tua TagovailoaMiss · 0Vacchiano ranks all 32 NFL teams entering the 2026 season, with the Rams first and Dolphins last. He also flags the Giants as a potential surprise team with a top-10 defense, and notes Deshaun Watson won Cleveland's QB job while Tua Tagovailoa starts Week 1 in Atlanta.
- Bucky BrooksTrade and Signing Calls · Keenan AllenHit · 100Brooks predicted J.J. McCarthy won't be on the Vikings' roster (traded or released), said Kyler Murray wins the Vikings' QB competition, made a series of 2025 award picks, made 2026 Heisman/draft projections including Arch Manning as the front-runner for the No. 1 overall pick, and said none of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen or Joe Burrow win a championship this season.
- Steven RuizDepth Chart Calls · Michael Penix Jr.Miss · 0In a retrospective tiering of all 32 starting quarterbacks, Ruiz treats Michael Penix Jr. as the Falcons' Week 1 starter over Kirk Cousins, whom he places in his lowest tier.
- Noah ComptonDepth Chart Calls · C.J. AllenMiss · 0After watching the Colts' eleventh training camp practice, Compton says rookie linebacker CJ Allen is still expected to start the regular-season opener, identifies Alec Pierce as the team's top receiver and Cam Taylor-Britt as the first cornerback behind the starting trio, and declares the kicking job Blake Grupe's to lose.
- John BreechDepth Chart Calls · Tua TagovailoaMiss · 0The unsigned Pick Six newsletter expects Seth McLaughlin to step into the Lions' starting center job with Cade Mays injured, and suggests Tua Tagovailoa is on track to be Atlanta's Week 1 starting quarterback.
- Seth WalderTrade and Signing Calls · Kayshon BoutteMiss · 0Walder proposes five trades he believes should happen before Week 1 of the 2026 season: Jessie Bates III to the 49ers, Kayvon Thibodeaux to the Patriots, Keon Coleman to the Colts, Walker Little to the Cardinals, and Kayshon Boutte to the Commanders, where he says Boutte would immediately be Washington's No. 2 receiver.
More playoff picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Dan "Buzz" WilsonPlayoff Picks · Philadelphia EaglesHit · 100Wilson argued the Eagles' offseason approach of prioritizing 2026 and beyond doesn't mean a bad 2025 — he expects them to remain among the NFC's best teams and to make a deep playoff run rather than fall off to eight or nine wins.
- Craig StoutPlayoff Picks · Kansas City ChiefsMiss · 0Craig believes better execution from a Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs team will be enough to return them to the playoffs in the coming season, and he expects Tyler Algeier to land with Denver as a complement to RJ Harvey.
- Ross JacksonPlayoff Picks · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 0Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.
- Rich EisenPlayoff Picks · Minnesota VikingsMiss · 0Eisen argues Ohio State will produce multiple top-10 picks — Sonny Styles, Arvell Reese and Caleb Downs — becoming the first school with three defensive players in the top 10, and that Styles will not be available at No. 12 to the Cowboys. He also thinks Fernando Mendoza is worthy of the No. 1 overall pick and expects the Raiders to draft him, and picks Trey Lance over Anthony Richardson to start a game first, Micah Parsons to fetch a bigger trade return than Maxx Crosby, Kirk Cousins as the released QB most likely to reach the playoffs, and J.J. McCarthy as the Vikings' Week 1 starter.
- Dwaine BoardPlayoff Picks · San Francisco 49ersHit · 100Board argues the 49ers can still make the playoffs even if Trent Williams leaves, expects Williams to be brought back, and favors drafting a wide receiver at No. 27 over an offensive tackle.
- Rich EisenPlayoff Picks · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. He also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.