Ross Jackson· Jan 19, 2026
Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.
“But if you get either one of those jumps in the second year out of Tyler Shuck going into 2026, that's a playoff season for the New Orleans Saints.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Saints (podcast) · read the original →
4 checkable claims — 3 player season numbers and 1 playoff pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 4 have settled, averaging 9.2 out of 100, against 69.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
passing yards4,601They said
2,384What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
4 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Tyler Shough to record 4,601 passing yards
“if I told you that Tyler Schutt comes out of his second season, completing 72% of his passes, throwing for 4,601 yards, 24 passing touchdowns in just nine interceptions”
Miss · 4Scored 3.63a naive guess scored 38.57-34.94 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 1651.74
- skill:
- -34.94
- what happened:
- 2384
- player:
- Tyler Shough
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 3.63
- baseline:
- 38.57
- predicted:
- 4601
- statistic:
- passing_yards
- difficulty:
- 1
- last season:
- no prior season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- position average:
- 1651.74
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Tyler Shough to record 24 passing tds
“he would jump to 24 passing touchdowns as well as nine interceptions”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 46.58-46.58 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 13.64
- skill:
- -46.58
- what happened:
- 10
- player:
- Tyler Shough
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 46.58
- predicted:
- 24
- statistic:
- passing_tds
- difficulty:
- 1
- last season:
- no prior season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- position average:
- 13.64
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Tyler Shough to record 9 passing interceptions
“he would jump to 24 passing touchdowns as well as nine interceptions”
Miss · 33Scored 33.33a naive guess scored 93.65-60.32 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 6.2
- skill:
- -60.32
- what happened:
- 6
- player:
- Tyler Shough
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 33.33
- baseline:
- 93.65
- predicted:
- 9
- statistic:
- passing_interceptions
- difficulty:
- 1
- last season:
- no prior season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- position average:
- 6.2
- zero at percent out:
- 50
- Playoff PicksNew Orleans SaintsJan 19, 2026
New Orleans Saints to make the playoffs
“if you get either one of those jumps in the second year out of Tyler Shuck going into 2026, that's a playoff season for the New Orleans Saints”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NO
- skill:
- -100
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 0
What others said about the same people
- Nick WrightScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 33On his Week 3 pick show, Nick Wright gave straight-up final-score predictions for five games, calling blowouts by Seattle over Washington and Kansas City over Miami, a Jacksonville home win over New England, a narrow New Orleans win over the Raiders and a low-scoring Baltimore win over Dallas in Brazil. He also called Seattle the best team in the NFL with the league's best defense.
- Dan BeyerGame Outcome Picks · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 0For his Week 3 survivor pick, he took the Saints to beat the Raiders at home, saying he doesn't see Las Vegas staying unbeaten.
- Darrion GrayScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsClose · 45Predicted the Saints beat the Raiders 27-17 at home.
- John HendricksScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsClose · 43Predicted a lower-scoring Saints win over the Raiders, 24-19, with the defense carrying them.
- Lance MooreScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsClose · 48Called for a Saints victory over the Raiders by a score of 27-20.
- Dylan SandersScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 36Picked the Saints to beat the Raiders at home in Week 3 by a score of 31-17, with New Orleans getting off to a fast start.
More player season numbers
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Chris BroussardPlayer Season Numbers · Lamar JacksonMiss · 0Broussard expects Lamar Jackson to play well but not vintage — two touchdown passes and no picks — while Derrick Henry carries the load with over 100 rushing yards. He also takes the Browns to upset the Bengals and believes Myles Garrett gets at least two sacks to break the single-season record.
- Nick WrightPlayer Season Numbers · Myles GarrettHit · 100Wright picks the Steelers to beat the Ravens outright in Pittsburgh, takes Seattle over San Francisco, and thinks the Browns lose to Cincinnati even as Myles Garrett gets the sack record.
- Nick WrightPlayer Season Numbers · Myles GarrettHit · 84Nick Wright says Myles Garrett is playing at an all-time level and might reach 25 sacks this season, and among his weekly picks he expects the Bears to beat the Steelers in an ugly low-margin home win and Seattle to win comfortably at Tennessee.
- Shannon SharpePlayer Season Numbers · T.J. WattMiss · 0On a Bengals-Steelers matchup, Sharpe took the over on several player props: Ja'Marr Chase over 74.5 receiving yards, Joe Flacco over 36.5 pass attempts, and T.J. Watt over 3.5 tackles+assists, adding that Watt will get two sacks. He also predicted Rico Dowdle would make the Pro Bowl this season.
- Rich EisenPlayer Season Numbers · Micah ParsonsClose · 56Eisen made a series of picks: Micah Parsons will out-sack any two Cowboys combined (after initially leaning the other way), the NFC North is more likely to produce a Super Bowl team than the NFC East, Eagles wins will outnumber Cowboys losses, Bo Nix/Courtland Sutton will out-touchdown Cam Ward/Calvin Ridley, and Marvin Harrison Jr./James Conner will beat Kamara/Olave in yards and TDs. He also picked the AFC West order and said Deion Sanders is more likely than Bill Belichick to have a winning record.
- Daniel JeremiahPlayer Season Numbers · Nick EmmanworiMiss · 0Jeremiah walked through his mock draft 3.0, slotting Cam Ward first overall to Tennessee, Abdul Carter to Cleveland at two, Shedeur Sanders to the Giants at three and Travis Hunter to New England at four, plus roughly twenty other first-round pairings. He also called Matthew Golden the first receiver off the board, said Tyler Booker would climb back into the latter third of the first round, expected Kirk Cousins to be traded, thought Jaire Alexander's Packers days were numbered, and predicted Cam Robinson would start at left tackle in Houston.