Ross Jackson · Jan 19, 2026
Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.
“But if you get either one of those jumps in the second year out of Tyler Shuck going into 2026, that's a playoff season for the New Orleans Saints.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Saints (podcast) · read the original →
4 checkable claims from this
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Tyler Shough to record 4,601 passing yards
“if I told you that Tyler Schutt comes out of his second season, completing 72% of his passes, throwing for 4,601 yards, 24 passing touchdowns in just nine interceptions”
Miss · 4Scored 3.63a naive guess scored 38.57-34.94 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 1651.74
- skill:
- -34.94
- what happened:
- 2384
- player:
- Tyler Shough
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 3.63
- baseline:
- 38.57
- predicted:
- 4601
- statistic:
- passing_yards
- difficulty:
- 1
- last season:
- no prior season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- position average:
- 1651.74
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Tyler Shough to record 24 passing tds
“he would jump to 24 passing touchdowns as well as nine interceptions”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 46.58-46.58 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 13.64
- skill:
- -46.58
- what happened:
- 10
- player:
- Tyler Shough
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 46.58
- predicted:
- 24
- statistic:
- passing_tds
- difficulty:
- 1
- last season:
- no prior season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- position average:
- 13.64
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Tyler Shough to record 9 passing interceptions
“he would jump to 24 passing touchdowns as well as nine interceptions”
Miss · 33Scored 33.33a naive guess scored 93.65-60.32 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 6.2
- skill:
- -60.32
- what happened:
- 6
- player:
- Tyler Shough
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 33.33
- baseline:
- 93.65
- predicted:
- 9
- statistic:
- passing_interceptions
- difficulty:
- 1
- last season:
- no prior season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- position average:
- 6.2
- zero at percent out:
- 50
- Playoff PicksNew Orleans SaintsJan 19, 2026
New Orleans Saints to make the playoffs
“if you get either one of those jumps in the second year out of Tyler Shuck going into 2026, that's a playoff season for the New Orleans Saints”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NO
- skill:
- -100
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- naive said:
- false
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made playoffs:
- false
- weeks left when called:
- 0