Gregg Rosenthal· Sep 5, 2025
Rosenthal's Week 1 picks: the Giants win at Washington, the Lions beat the Packers, and the Jaguars beat the Panthers; he also likes the Jets over the Steelers and the Dolphins over the Colts, and expects Jacksonville to clear 7.5 wins.
“it just wouldn't shock me if the Giants come out and win this game”
said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
6 checkable claims — 5 game outcome picks and 1 season win total — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 6 have settled, averaging 16.7 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
6 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksNew York GiantsSep 5, 2025
New York Giants to beat Commanders
“I'm going Giants plus six against the Commanders on the road this week... it just wouldn't shock me if the Giants come out and win this game”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- WAS
- score:
- 6-21
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- NYG
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- WAS
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksDetroit LionsSep 5, 2025
Detroit Lions to beat Green Bay Packers
“Your Lions are two and a half point underdogs to the Green Bay Packers... I just think the Lions are a better team... This is probably be my number one pick”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- GB
- score:
- 13-27
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- GB
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksJacksonville JaguarsSep 5, 2025
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Carolina Panthers
“Jaguars minus three and a half is my pick... I just think they're a way more complete team”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- JAX
- score:
- 10-26
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- JAX
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsJacksonville JaguarsSep 5, 2025
Jacksonville Jaguars to finish with 8 wins
“The Jaguars are a team I think is going to be great this year in terms of versus like their win total for instance, I really like they're over seven and a half.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- JAX
- naive:
- 6.25
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 13
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 8
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksNew York JetsSep 5, 2025
New York Jets to beat Steelers
“I like the Jets giving up three points to the Steelers.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- PIT
- score:
- 34-32
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NYJ
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- NYJ
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksMiami DolphinsSep 5, 2025
Miami Dolphins to beat Colts
“The one that was the closest to making my top three was the Dolphins... I kind of just liked them in this spot having a one week, one week win”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- IND
- score:
- 8-33
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- MIA
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- IND
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
What others said about the same people
- Nick WrightGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsMiss · 0Amid a slate of against-the-spread picks, Wright makes a few outright calls: Jacksonville beats Denver straight up, Carolina wins at Atlanta, and he reiterates that he picked Denver to make the playoffs despite his concerns after their Week 1 loss. He also expects Ladd McConkie to sit out the Chargers' game.
- Carter BahnsScore Predictions · Jacksonville JaguarsClose · 50He picks Jacksonville to win in Denver, arguing the market still undervalues the Jaguars and that the Broncos' offense under new play-caller Davis Webb won't score enough to keep pace.
- Nick WrightGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsMiss · 0Amid his Week 2 spread picks, Wright made a few straight-up calls: Jacksonville wins outright at Denver, Carolina wins at Atlanta, and he'd be stunned if Kansas City lost to Indianapolis. He also expected Zay Flowers and Ladd McConkie to sit out with injuries.
- Danny ParkinsGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsMiss · 0Parkins picked the Giants to beat the Rams outright, backed Jacksonville over Denver, Cincinnati over Houston and Chicago over Minnesota in the chips segment, endorsed Buffalo as the AFC's Super Bowl representative, and predicted Deshaun Watson has started his last NFL game.
- Nick WrightGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsMiss · 0Wright stuck by his preseason call of a 12-5 Bills team that wins its division, picked the Jaguars to beat Denver outright, leaned Texans over Cincinnati, still has Atlanta as his deep sleeper, counts New England among his 14 playoff teams, and recalled pegging Washington for a 5-12 or 6-11 year with a bottom-six defense.
- Chris BroussardGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsMiss · 0Brew stood by the Lions as division winners and playoff team, picked the Texans over Cincinnati, the Bears over Minnesota, the Patriots to beat Pittsburgh with a solid Drake Maye game, flagged Jacksonville over Denver as his upset alert, and said he still feels good about the Ravens winning the AFC.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Michael HanichGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Hanich argues the Week 2 road game at Arizona is not a true trap game, citing Seattle's long winning streak in the series, Mike Macdonald's preparation and injuries in the Cardinals' secondary, and rates his confidence in the Seahawks at 7. He also suggests safety Nick Emmanwori may miss a second straight game.
- Seth WalderGame Outcome Picks · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Picks the Panthers to beat the Falcons in Atlanta.
- Eric MoodyGame Outcome Picks · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Picks the Panthers to beat the Falcons in Atlanta.
- Pamela MaldonadoGame Outcome Picks · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Picks the Panthers to beat the Falcons in Atlanta.
- John MiddlekauffGame Outcome Picks · Philadelphia EaglesHit · 100In a Week 2 preview, Middlekauff argued Matt LaFleur is under enormous pressure in Green Bay, predicted blowout wins for the 49ers over Miami and the Eagles over Tennessee, and offered season win-total views on the Saints, Buccaneers, Texans and Jaguars while backing Dallas to win the NFC East.
- Nick WrightGame Outcome Picks · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Amid a slate of against-the-spread picks, Wright makes a few outright calls: Jacksonville beats Denver straight up, Carolina wins at Atlanta, and he reiterates that he picked Denver to make the playoffs despite his concerns after their Week 1 loss. He also expects Ladd McConkie to sit out the Chargers' game.