Marcus Mosher· Oct 15, 2024
Mosher ranks all 32 NFL teams heading into Week 7, with the Chiefs first and the Patriots last, and adds that the Texans could wrap up the AFC South by Thanksgiving, the Steelers should make the playoffs, the Cardinals are not a playoff team, and Mason Rudolph will eventually replace Will Levis as the Titans' starter.
“There aren’t three teams in the NFL who are worse than the Jaguars right now.”
published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived Oct 22, 2024) →
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.
5 checkable claims — 2 playoff picks, 1 depth chart call, 1 division winner and 1 power ranking — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
4 of 5 have settled so far, averaging 95.3 out of 100, against 91.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Division WinnersHouston TexansOct 15, 2024
Houston Texans to win the division
“The Texans already have a massive lead in the AFC South, and they could have the division wrapped up by Thanksgiving.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 12
- won the division:
- yes
- Depth Chart CallsMason RudolphTennessee TitansOct 15, 2024
Mason Rudolph to be 1st on the depth chart
“It feels like it’s only a matter of time before Mason Rudolph replaces him in the starting lineup.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 100-13.92 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- TEN
- skill:
- -13.92
- player:
- Mason Rudolph
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 12
- Power RankingsOct 15, 2024
“Here is our full set of power rankings heading into Week 7: 1. Kansas City Chiefs ... 32. New England Patriots”
Hit · 90Scored 89.7a naive guess scored 67.38+37.28 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 37.28
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 89.7
- baseline:
- 67.38
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 32
- weeks left when called:
- 12
- Playoff PicksPittsburgh SteelersOct 15, 2024
Pittsburgh Steelers to make the playoffs
“Pittsburgh isn’t a great team, but it has a clear identity and should still wind up being a playoff team.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- PIT
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 12
- Playoff PicksArizona CardinalsOct 15, 2024
Arizona Cardinals to make the playoffs
“Arizona is better than what it displayed on Sunday, but this isn’t a playoff team, either.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Henry McKennaDepth Chart Calls · Carson BeckMiss · 0McKenna predicts Kyler Murray will win the Vikings' starting QB job over J.J. McCarthy, that Minnesota will make the playoffs if Murray cuts out the hero ball, that both QBs will play in 2026, and wonders whether rookie Carson Beck could unseat Jacoby Brissett as Arizona's Week 1 starter.
- Jason McIntyreTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldMiss · 0Filling in for Colin Cowherd, McIntyre argued the 49ers' window is closed amid a brutal injury list and record travel, floated a Bijan Robinson trade to the Bears, predicted the Lions can win the NFC North, doubted Atlanta is even a playoff team, said Baker Mayfield's Tampa run ends after this season, and delivered a top-10 quarterback ranking.
- Evan SilvaFantasy Defense Calls · Pittsburgh SteelersHit · 100In his 2020 fantasy defense/special teams rankings, Silva puts the Steelers first, the 49ers second and the Ravens third, citing pass rush, favorable early schedules and game scripts.
- Eric CohenGame Outcome Picks · Tennessee TitansMiss · 0Cohen says the Bears win easily in Carolina, and that Tennessee starts 1-0 over a Jets team he considers the third-worst in the league.
- Jordan DajaniGame Outcome Picks · Pittsburgh SteelersHit · 100Dajani expects the Steelers to comfortably beat the Falcons in Week 1, arguing Atlanta's quarterback situation under Tua Tagovailoa is a mess; he also picks the Vikings to beat the Packers in a low-scoring game.
- John BreechGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Breech picks the Texans to upset the Bills in Houston, trusting Houston's defense to smother Josh Allen, and takes the Raiders to beat the Dolphins by at least a touchdown.
More playoff picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Dan "Buzz" WilsonPlayoff Picks · Philadelphia EaglesHit · 100Wilson argued the Eagles' offseason approach of prioritizing 2026 and beyond doesn't mean a bad 2025 — he expects them to remain among the NFC's best teams and to make a deep playoff run rather than fall off to eight or nine wins.
- Craig StoutPlayoff Picks · Kansas City ChiefsMiss · 0Craig believes better execution from a Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs team will be enough to return them to the playoffs in the coming season, and he expects Tyler Algeier to land with Denver as a complement to RJ Harvey.
- Ross JacksonPlayoff Picks · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 0Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.
- Rich EisenPlayoff Picks · Minnesota VikingsMiss · 0Eisen argues Ohio State will produce multiple top-10 picks — Sonny Styles, Arvell Reese and Caleb Downs — becoming the first school with three defensive players in the top 10, and that Styles will not be available at No. 12 to the Cowboys. He also thinks Fernando Mendoza is worthy of the No. 1 overall pick and expects the Raiders to draft him, and picks Trey Lance over Anthony Richardson to start a game first, Micah Parsons to fetch a bigger trade return than Maxx Crosby, Kirk Cousins as the released QB most likely to reach the playoffs, and J.J. McCarthy as the Vikings' Week 1 starter.
- Dwaine BoardPlayoff Picks · San Francisco 49ersHit · 100Board argues the 49ers can still make the playoffs even if Trent Williams leaves, expects Williams to be brought back, and favors drafting a wide receiver at No. 27 over an offensive tackle.
- Rich EisenPlayoff Picks · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. He also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.