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Pat McAfee· Jan 16, 2026

McAfee predicted Matthew Stafford will win his first MVP award this season, saying he'll be on stage at the NFL Honors regardless of whether the Rams reach the Super Bowl. He also picked the Bills over the Broncos, the Patriots over the Texans, and said the Rams will win a close one in Chicago (while taking the Bears on the spread).

“Matthew Stafford is in the middle of a potential probable MVP season right now.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Pat McAfee Show (podcast) · read the original →

4 checkable claims — 3 game outcome picks and 1 award pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 4 have settled, averaging 75 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Who this take is about

4 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Game Outcome PicksNew England PatriotsJan 16, 2026

    New England Patriots to win

    “He said not this week. Okay. Patriots.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    NE
    score:
    16-28
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    NE
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    NE
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

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  • Game Outcome PicksBuffalo BillsJan 16, 2026

    Buffalo Bills to win

    “Am I gonna do the same thing yes as prompt us? Give me the bills. I'll take the bills.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    DEN
    score:
    30-33
    skill:
    -100
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    DEN
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Award PicksMatthew StaffordLos Angeles RamsJan 16, 2026

    Matthew Stafford to win MVP

    “At the end of this one, he's gonna walk up on the stage at the honors whether he's playing in Super Bowl or not playing in Super Bowl, and probably thank everybody that has ever gone into working with him throughout his entire career... as his first time MVP winner.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
    How this was scored
    award:
    mvp
    naive:
    the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
    skill:
    100
    player:
    Matthew Stafford
    season:
    2025
    winner:
    Matthew Stafford
    correct:
    yes
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles RamsJan 16, 2026

    Los Angeles Rams to win

    “I'll take the Bears plus four and a half. That doesn't mean they're gonna win, I don't think. I think the Rams put a close one.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    LAR
    score:
    20-17
    skill:
    100
    they picked:
    LAR
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    CHI
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Discussed alongside these

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span of it for attribution — we never republish their article. If we have misread you, tell us and we will look at it.