Cynthia Frelund· Jul 22, 2025
Frelund presented her top-10 fantasy quarterback rankings for the season, headed by Josh Allen with Joe Burrow second, and added Jared Goff at No. 11. She also predicted 11 wins for the 49ers, that Burrow leads the league in passing touchdowns (possibly up to 50), and expects improvement/surprises from the Raiders and Patriots.
“This guy is number one last season, He'll be number one next season until he's not the rushing plus passing capabilities of Josh Allen.”
said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
6 checkable claims — 2 surprise team calls, 1 fantasy ranking, 1 player season number, 1 positional finishe and 1 season win total — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
4 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 33.8 out of 100, against 18.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
6 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Fantasy RankingsJul 22, 2025
“At number ten, we've got Rock Purty... At number nine... It's Baker Mayfield... At number eight, we got our sophomore bow Nicks... At number seven, it's Kyler Murray... at number six, Patrick Mahomes... number five. Jayden Daniels... Lamar Jackson comes in at number four... At number three, Tush push still there... Jalen Hurts... So Joe Burrow... and at number one... Josh Allen... Jared Goff's eleven.”
Close · 55Scored 55a naive guess scored 50+10 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- 10
- placed:
- 11
- season:
- 2025
- players:
- 11
- accuracy:
- 55
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- QB 11: 55
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 0
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Joe Burrow to record 50 passing tds
“So it could get up to fifty this year.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 20.05-40.1 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 28.32
- skill:
- -40.1
- what happened:
- 17
- player:
- Joe Burrow
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 20.05
- predicted:
- 50
- statistic:
- passing_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 43
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 13.64
- zero at percent out:
- 50
- Positional FinishesJoe BurrowCincinnati BengalsJul 22, 2025
Joe Burrow to finish top 1 at his position, by passing tds
“This is a guy who I project to lead the league in passing touchdowns and it's not even close.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Joe Burrow
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- passing tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 1
- actual finish:
- 24
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 1
- Season Win TotalsSan Francisco 49ersJul 22, 2025
San Francisco 49ers to finish with 11 wins
“I had the forty nine ers with at least double digit wins, probably eleven. That's the number.”
Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 5+150 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- SF
- naive:
- 7.25
- skill:
- 150
- what happened:
- 12
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 80
- baseline:
- 5
- predicted:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Surprise Team CallsLas Vegas RaidersJul 22, 2025
Las Vegas Raiders to beat expectations
“I think we're going to see a Raiders team that is much, much, much improved, very quickly because of the impact of getting the right voices in there”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Surprise Team CallsNew England PatriotsJul 22, 2025
New England Patriots to beat expectations
“I want to know who the Patriots are. I think that's a team that could really be a really big problem. I don't think they supplant the Bills, but there's other teams in that division that they could surprise and sneak up on.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Steven RuizTrade and Signing Calls · A.J. BrownHit · 100Ruiz expects the Eagles to trade A.J. Brown once the June 1 dead-cap threshold passes, most likely to New England, and thinks Baker Mayfield will get a Buccaneers extension making him the league's highest-paid quarterback within a month or two. He also argues the Lions may have to let one or two of their 2023 draft class leave, and that Houston should extend C.J. Stroud.
- Fernando Alfaro-DonisTrade and Signing Calls · Kayshon BoutteMiss · 0Argues the Raiders' weakest spot is their receiver room, expects Jalen Nailor to take a big step forward in Klint Kubiak's scheme with Kirk Cousins starting before Fernando Mendoza takes over, and suggests Las Vegas should trade a mid-round pick for Patriots receiver Kayshon Boutte, who would immediately become their top option.
- Mike TannenbaumTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsMiss · 0Tannenbaum argues the Chiefs should lean on the run game early while Mahomes recovers, says the Bills haven't done enough at receiver and would repeat their playoff shortcoming, expects AJ Brown to have a massive impact in New England, thinks George Pickens will earn a big raise, and offers free-agent fits: Deebo Samuel to Buffalo, Joey Bosa to Tampa Bay, Taylor Decker to Houston, and Stefon Diggs to San Francisco.
- Brandon CarneyTrade and Signing Calls · A.J. BrownHit · 100Carney drafted a team of rookies he expects to make an immediate fantasy impact (headlined by Karnell Tate and Makai Lemon), predicted landing spots for the remaining big-name free agents, and gave way-too-early division winners, wild cards and award picks — Patriots, Chargers, Bengals, Jaguars, Eagles, Rams, Vikings and Saints as division champs with Joe Burrow as MVP.
- Jeremy WhiteTrade and Signing Calls · A.J. BrownHit · 100Jeremy White expects the Patriots to acquire AJ Brown, calling the trade likely inevitable within about a month.
- Chris BrockmanTrade and Signing Calls · A.J. BrownHit · 100Brockman predicted only Stafford and Josh Allen of last year's MVP vote-getters get votes again, Fernando Mendoza starts and wins Rookie of the Year, the Colts win the AFC South, AJ Brown is traded to New England leaving DeVonta Smith as Philadelphia's clear No. 1 and a breakout star, five running backs top 1,600 yards, George Pickens breaks a Cowboys receiving record, and Justin Fields starts for Kansas City in September.
More surprise team calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Nick WrightSurprise Team Calls · Atlanta FalconsPendingWright stuck by his preseason call of a 12-5 Bills team that wins its division, picked the Jaguars to beat Denver outright, leaned Texans over Cincinnati, still has Atlanta as his deep sleeper, counts New England among his 14 playoff teams, and recalled pegging Washington for a 5-12 or 6-11 year with a bottom-six defense.
- Pete PriscoSurprise Team Calls · Arizona CardinalsPendingA Week 2 NFL power rankings column places the Seahawks first and the Dolphins last, with the 49ers rising six spots after beating the Rams and the Cowboys falling 12 after losing to the Giants. It also suggests the Cardinals and Jets could be better than expected.
- Rich EisenSurprise Team Calls · New Orleans SaintsPendingEisen accepted that the Giants can be the best team in the NFC East (while pumping the brakes on NFC contender talk), restated his preseason Josh Allen MVP pick, insisted the Rams are too talented to miss the playoffs, and put his marker on the Saints as the NFC South team that can beat expectations.
- Fox SportsSurprise Team Calls · New Orleans SaintsPendingRelaying anonymous NFL executives and scouts, the piece names Saints QB Tyler Shough as this season's breakout star whose numbers could pop, suggests New Orleans could surprise people in a weak division, and says Bears youngsters Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland will become elite — with Burden taking over as Chicago's No. 1 receiver ahead of Rome Odunze.
- Bill CowherSurprise Team Calls · Pittsburgh SteelersPendingCowher said the Steelers are flying under the radar entering the season and will have a better identity, framing them as a team that beats expectations.
- JJ WattSurprise Team Calls · Jacksonville JaguarsPendingWatt gave Seattle's defensive front the edge over New England's, said the Jaguars remain underrated and under-discussed, and described USC product Lloyd as the Packers' bell-cow starting back.