Lance Zierlein· Apr 24, 2026
Zierlein praised the Texans' first-round trade-up for guard Keelan Rutledge, said Francis Manoa has a chance to be a Pro Bowl guard, mocked specific players to the Texans on Day 2, predicted Kevon Thibodeaux will not get another contract with the Giants (only one more year), compared Caleb Downs' ceiling to Jalen Petrie, and predicted the Rams will draft much higher than 13 next year.
“I gave them a tackle in the first round because somebody at NFL Network convinced me.”
said on air, transcribed by us · John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast) · read the original →
6 checkable claims — 2 mock draft picks, 1 depth chart call, 1 pro bowl and all-pro call, 1 team draft slot call and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
2 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 44.1 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
6 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksChristen MillerHouston TexansApr 24, 2026
Christen Miller to be picked at number 38
“with the first pick of the second round that they have, pick number 38, I passed on Caden McDonald and gave him Kristen Miller, another defensive tackle out of Georgia”
Hit · 84Scored 84.09a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Christen Miller
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 84.09
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 42
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 84.09
- predicted pick:
- 38
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksKyle LouisHouston TexansApr 24, 2026
Kyle Louis to be picked “the next pick the Texans have in the second round” (picks 33–64)
“The next pick, that the Texans have in the second round... I finally settled in on Kyle Lewis, the, linebacker from Pitt.”
Miss · 4Scored 4.05a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Kyle Louis
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 4.05
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 138
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 4.05
- predicted pick:
- the next pick the Texans have in the second round (picks 33–64)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Depth Chart CallsKyle LouisHouston TexansApr 24, 2026
Kyle Louis to be 1st on the depth chart
“what he would do is come in as a subpackage defender early on for the Texans. And I think eventually, he'd be the starter”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Pro Bowl and All-Pro CallsFrancis MauigoaApr 24, 2026
Francis Mauigoa to make Pro Bowl
“who was the first, offensive lineman taken, who's a right tackle, who they're gonna move down the guard, which I think he's got a chance to be a Pro Bowl guard”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Kayvon Thibodeaux to move to New York Giants
“Thibodeaux is gonna be gone. I don't even think he gets another contract.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Team Draft Slot CallsLos Angeles RamsApr 24, 2026
Los Angeles Rams to pick “They're gonna draft a lot higher”
“13 is as high as they're gonna they're not drafting 13 next year. They're gonna draft a lot higher.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Nick ShookRoster Spot Calls · Aaron DonaldHit · 100Shook unveiled his first NFL power rankings of the year, putting the Rams first, the Broncos second and the defending champion Seahawks only third, with the Dolphins last.
- Chad MillmanGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Chad Millman said he had taken money-line positions on several Week 1 underdogs — the Texans outright over the Bills, the Giants outright over Dallas (in a money-line underdog parlay), and Miami outright at Las Vegas — and that the show's survivor pick was the Steelers to win.
- John BreechGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Breech picks the Texans to upset the Bills in Houston, trusting Houston's defense to smother Josh Allen, and takes the Raiders to beat the Dolphins by at least a touchdown.
- Judah FortgangGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0PFF's divisional-round same-game parlay picks: Tampa Bay beats Cincinnati with Cade Otton exploiting the Bengals' linebackers, Las Vegas beats Miami behind Kirk Cousins attacking a depleted Dolphins secondary, and Houston beats Buffalo with C.J. Stroud throwing effectively and Jaylin Noel benefiting from the slot matchup.
- Judah FortgangGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0An unsigned PFF betting piece argues Cooper Rush will struggle against Pittsburgh's disruption pressure in Week 1, and that Buffalo's rebuilt secondary without Sean McDermott will be exploitable by C.J. Stroud, leading them to back Houston winning through the air.
- Simon HunterGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Hunter picked Houston and the Giants as underdog money line plays, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Detroit as favorites, and used Pittsburgh plus the Chargers as his survivor picks for week one.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Rob RangMock Draft Picks · Jeremiah SmithMiss · 0Rang ranks the four headline prospects from the Texas-Ohio State game in the order he'd draft them (Jeremiah Smith, Arch Manning, Cam Coleman, Julian Sayin) and assigns each a draft grade: Smith and Manning as top-5 picks, Coleman top 10, and Sayin a third-rounder.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · Brandon DoughtyMiss · 3Rosenthal gave first reactions to Vegas win totals: overs on the Steelers, Broncos, Vikings, Buccaneers, 49ers and Cardinals, unders on the Falcons and Commanders, plus he expects Shedeur Sanders to start about 10-11 games and thinks the Cowboys' 9.5 is beatable.
- Peter BukowskiMock Draft Picks · Gennings DunkerHit · 100Bukowski breaks down Iowa offensive lineman Jennings Dunker as a Packers fit and puts a late second-/early third-round grade on him, noting that range overlaps where Green Bay picks.
- David HarrisonMock Draft Picks · Eli HeidenreichHit · 100Harrison delivers his only first-round mock draft for the 2026 NFL Draft, projecting all 32 first-round picks (including several trades) plus the rest of Washington's projected class, while noting it is an exercise in what could happen rather than a firm forecast.
- Brian PeacockMock Draft Picks · Bud ClarkHit · 96In his final 2026 mock draft for the 49ers, Peacock projects San Francisco taking WR Kevin Concepcion (KC) at pick 27, then after trading out of round two, edge rusher Kieron Crawford and safety Bud Clark in round three, OL Trey Zune and RB Jonah Coleman in round four, CB Charles Demings in round five and guard Caden Barnett in round six. He also thinks Omar Cooper comes off the board before Concepcion.
- David HarrisonMock Draft Picks · Riley NowakowskiMiss · 13In his final mock draft Monday, Harrison has the Commanders trading back twice and selecting eight players: safety Dylan Thieneman at 16, WR Denzel Boston at 33, RB Mike Washington Jr. at 83, C Jagger Burton at 132, CB Julian Neal at 147, QB Cade Klubnik at 187, DB Lorenzo Styles Jr. at 209 and TE Riley Nowakowski in the seventh round.