Matt Miller· Mar 17, 2026
ESPN draft analyst Matt Miller laid out his expectations for the upcoming draft: Carnell Tate goes somewhere between picks four and nine (not lasting to Miami at 11), Jeremiah Love goes between four and seven with the two Notre Dame backs as the first two running backs off the board, Jadarian Price is a top-40 pick, Arkansas' Mike Washington is a second-rounder, Ty Simpson's likelier landing spot is round two, and Miami right tackle Francis Mauigoa won't fall far past the top five.
“So I think the window for Carnell Tate is is really it's from four to nine.”
said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast) · read the original →
8 checkable claims — 6 mock draft picks and 2 position order calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
5 of 8 have settled so far, averaging 81.6 out of 100, against 41.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
positional finishTheir call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
8 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Position Order CallsJeremiyah LoveMar 17, 2026
Jeremiyah Love to be 1st running back off the board
“We'll see the two Notre Dame backs go one, two, I think, is the expectation.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 25.97+74.03 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- naming one of the 13 at random averages 25.97
- skill:
- 74.03
- player:
- Jeremiyah Love
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 25.97
- position:
- running back
- class size:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 1
- predicted order:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Position Order CallsJadarian PriceMar 17, 2026
Jadarian Price to be 2nd running back off the board
“We'll see the two Notre Dame backs go one, two, I think, is the expectation. And Jarian Price should be a top 40 selection, maybe even a late first round pick.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 31.29+68.71 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- naming one of the 13 at random averages 31.29
- skill:
- 68.71
- player:
- Jadarian Price
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 31.29
- position:
- running back
- class size:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 2
- predicted order:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Mock Draft PicksJadarian PriceMar 17, 2026
Jadarian Price to be picked “a top 40 selection, maybe even a late first round pick” (picks 1–40)
“And Jarian Price should be a top 40 selection, maybe even a late first round pick.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Jadarian Price
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 32
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- a top 40 selection, maybe even a late first round pick (picks 1–40)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksMike WashingtonMar 17, 2026
Mike Washington to be picked “probably a second round pick” (picks 33–64)
“So he's the only other player that I think we could look at right now is saying probably a second round pick for Mike Washington”
Miss · 8Scored 8.11a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Mike Washington
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 8.11
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 122
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 8.11
- predicted pick:
- probably a second round pick (picks 33–64)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksFrancis MauigoaMar 17, 2026
Francis Mauigoa to be picked “he will not get very far out of the top five” (picks 1–5)
“I have a strong feeling that he will not get very far out of the top five.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Francis Mauigoa
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- he will not get very far out of the top five (NOT picks 1–5)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksTy SimpsonMar 17, 2026
Ty Simpson to be picked “more round two than round one”
“it feels like a game of musical chairs where the the ideal spots for him might be more round two than round one”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Mock Draft PicksCarnell TateMar 17, 2026
Carnell Tate to be picked “from four to nine”
“So I think the window for Carnell Tate is is really it's from four to nine.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Mock Draft PicksJeremiyah LoveMar 17, 2026
Jeremiyah Love to be picked “anywhere from four to seven”
“So I think Love could go anywhere from four to seven. I don't know that, you know, he gets out of that window right now.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Patricia TrainaRoster Spot Calls · Francis MauigoaHit · 100Traina projects the Giants' initial 53-man roster position by position, naming who makes the team and who lands on the practice squad, including keeping Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Evan Neal (with a possible trade), Dalen Cambre over Braxton Berrios, Lucas Patrick as backup center, and Dominic Zvada as the kicker.
- Blaine GrisakRoster Spot Calls · Ty SimpsonHit · 100After the Rams' first preseason game, Grisak predicted the full 53-man roster, naming three quarterbacks, four running backs, five receivers, five tight ends, nine offensive linemen, four linebackers, six defensive linemen, four edge rushers, five cornerbacks, five safeties and three special teamers, with Dean Connors headed for the practice squad instead.
- Dharya SharmaRoster Spot Calls · Carnell TateHit · 100Previewing the Titans' preseason opener, Sharma identifies five receivers as roster locks, expects Bryce Oliver to make the 53 on special teams value, and predicts Will Levis will not be on Tennessee's roster by September, likely being moved for a late-round pick.
- Lance ZierleinMock Draft Picks · Jeremiyah LoveHit · 100Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Francis MauigoaHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 92Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Jeff CavanaughMock Draft Picks · Lorenzo StylesMiss · 1Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40.
- Scott BogmanMock Draft Picks · Olaivavega IoaneClose · 71He gave David Bailey to Tennessee at 4, Sonny Styles to Washington at 7, Caleb Downs to Cincinnati at 10, Carnell Tate to the Rams at 13, Denzel Boston to the Jets at 16, Kayden McDonald to Carolina at 19, Vega Ioane to the Chargers at 22, Peter Woods to Chicago at 25, Emmanuel Pregnon to Houston at 28 and Romello Height to Denver at 31, and insisted both Bailey and Downs are top-10 locks.
- Steve MenschMock Draft Picks · Caleb LomuClose · 62Making the even-numbered picks in the mock, he sent Arvell Reese to the Jets at No. 2, Spencer Fano to the Giants at 5, Jordan Tyson to the Saints at 8, a Tennessee cornerback to Miami at 11, Keldric Faulk to Baltimore at 14, Akheem Mesidor to Dallas at 20, Kenyon Sadiq to Philadelphia at 23, Caleb Banks to Buffalo at 26, Ty Simpson to the Rams at 29 and Chris Johnson to Seattle at 32, plus Caleb Lomu to Detroit at 17.