Matt Miller · Mar 17, 2026

ESPN draft analyst Matt Miller laid out his expectations for the upcoming draft: Carnell Tate goes somewhere between picks four and nine (not lasting to Miami at 11), Jeremiah Love goes between four and seven with the two Notre Dame backs as the first two running backs off the board, Jadarian Price is a top-40 pick, Arkansas' Mike Washington is a second-rounder, Ty Simpson's likelier landing spot is round two, and Miami right tackle Francis Mauigoa won't fall far past the top five.

“So I think the window for Carnell Tate is is really it's from four to nine.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast) · read the original →

8 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Position Order Calls Jeremiyah LoveMar 17, 2026
Jeremiyah Love to be 1st running back off the board
“We'll see the two Notre Dame backs go one, two, I think, is the expectation.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 25.97+74.03 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 13 at random averages 25.97
skill:
74.03
player:
Jeremiyah Love
season:
2026
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
100
baseline:
25.97
position:
running back
class size:
13
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
1
predicted order:
1
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Position Order Calls Jadarian PriceMar 17, 2026
Jadarian Price to be 2nd running back off the board
“We'll see the two Notre Dame backs go one, two, I think, is the expectation. And Jarian Price should be a top 40 selection, maybe even a late first round pick.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 31.29+68.71 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 13 at random averages 31.29
skill:
68.71
player:
Jadarian Price
season:
2026
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
100
baseline:
31.29
position:
running back
class size:
13
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
2
predicted order:
2
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Jadarian PriceMar 17, 2026
Jadarian Price to be picked “a top 40 selection, maybe even a late first round pick” (picks 1–40)
“And Jarian Price should be a top 40 selection, maybe even a late first round pick.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Jadarian Price
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
32
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
a top 40 selection, maybe even a late first round pick (picks 1–40)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Mike WashingtonMar 17, 2026
Mike Washington to be picked “probably a second round pick” (picks 33–64)
“So he's the only other player that I think we could look at right now is saying probably a second round pick for Mike Washington”
Miss · 8Scored 8.11a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Mike Washington
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
8.11
baseline:
50
actual pick:
122
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
8.11
predicted pick:
probably a second round pick (picks 33–64)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Francis MauigoaMar 17, 2026
Francis Mauigoa to be picked “he will not get very far out of the top five” (picks 1–5)
“I have a strong feeling that he will not get very far out of the top five.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Francis Mauigoa
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
10
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
he will not get very far out of the top five (NOT picks 1–5)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Jeremiyah LoveMar 17, 2026
Jeremiyah Love to be picked “anywhere from four to seven”
“So I think Love could go anywhere from four to seven. I don't know that, you know, he gets out of that window right now.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Carnell TateMar 17, 2026
Carnell Tate to be picked “from four to nine”
“So I think the window for Carnell Tate is is really it's from four to nine.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Ty SimpsonMar 17, 2026
Ty Simpson to be picked “more round two than round one”
“it feels like a game of musical chairs where the the ideal spots for him might be more round two than round one”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?