Hondo Carpenter· Aug 24, 2026
Carpenter predicts special-teams linebacker Segun Olubi will make the Raiders' 53-man roster, with Las Vegas carrying five inside linebackers. He also notes projections that the Raiders keep all three quarterbacks, including Aidan O'Connell.
“for the first time all year, I now think he will make the 53-man roster, and the Silver and Black will carry five ILBs”
published in writing · Sports Illustrated · read the original →
2 checkable claims — 2 roster spot calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 2 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
2 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Aidan O'Connell to make the roster
“Janocko is thrilled to have him on the roster, as projections indicate the Raiders will keep all three QBs.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- LV
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- 2d971c47-0585-4751-bd29-72db216d090c
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he makes the 53
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
- Roster Spot CallsSegun OlubiLas Vegas RaidersAug 24, 2026
Segun Olubi to make the roster
“Olubi is a special teams standout, and for the first time all year, I now think he will make the 53-man roster, and the Silver and Black will carry five ILBs.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- LV
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- 9f3d812d-f056-43ca-9f88-ae233f9d2d14
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he makes the 53
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
What others said about the same people
- Fernando Alfaro-DonisTrade and Signing Calls · Kayshon BoutteMiss · 0Argues the Raiders' weakest spot is their receiver room, expects Jalen Nailor to take a big step forward in Klint Kubiak's scheme with Kirk Cousins starting before Fernando Mendoza takes over, and suggests Las Vegas should trade a mid-round pick for Patriots receiver Kayshon Boutte, who would immediately become their top option.
- Brandon CarneyTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsMiss · 0Carney drafted a team of rookies he expects to make an immediate fantasy impact (headlined by Karnell Tate and Makai Lemon), predicted landing spots for the remaining big-name free agents, and gave way-too-early division winners, wild cards and award picks — Patriots, Chargers, Bengals, Jaguars, Eagles, Rams, Vikings and Saints as division champs with Joe Burrow as MVP.
- John BreechGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Breech picks the Texans to upset the Bills in Houston, trusting Houston's defense to smother Josh Allen, and takes the Raiders to beat the Dolphins by at least a touchdown.
- Judah FortgangGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100PFF's divisional-round same-game parlay picks: Tampa Bay beats Cincinnati with Cade Otton exploiting the Bengals' linebackers, Las Vegas beats Miami behind Kirk Cousins attacking a depleted Dolphins secondary, and Houston beats Buffalo with C.J. Stroud throwing effectively and Jaylin Noel benefiting from the slot matchup.
- Logan LazarczykGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Lazarczyk argues the Raiders' Week 1 home opener against a gutted, tanking Dolphins team should be an easy win, saying Las Vegas has no excuse to lose.
- Dan BeyerGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Beyer's Week 1 survivor pick was the Raiders to beat the Dolphins at home.
More roster spot calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- John ShipleyRoster Spot Calls · Jack KiserMiss · 0Shipley projects a full 16-player (plus one international/exemption spot) Jaguars practice squad for 2026, naming specific players at each position he expects to land there.
- Cody RourkeRoster Spot Calls · Mitchell FraboniMiss · 0Rourke names the Ravens as the bounce-back team most likely to be dangerous in the AFC again, and says Houston's defense alone should carry the Texans into the postseason. He also expects long snapper Mitchell Fraboni to be one of Denver's practice-squad elevations for the Chiefs game, and slots Pat Bryant as Denver's third receiver behind Courtland Sutton and Jaylen Waddle.
- Sayre BedingerRoster Spot Calls · Adam PrenticeMiss · 0Benninger expects Houston's elite defense to make them either a division winner or a wild card team, thinks Marvin Mims was trending toward being Denver's fourth receiver rather than just the return man, and figures Adam Prentice will be the Broncos' other practice-squad call-up.
- Bob MorrisRoster Spot Calls · Adam PrenticeHit · 100Morris predicts Jarrett Stidham holds the backup QB job behind Bo Nix, Adam Prentice makes the 53-man roster as the fullback/fourth back, and Lucas Krull gets cut.
- Erick TrickelRoster Spot Calls · Adam PrenticeHit · 100After the Broncos' preseason opener, Trickel argued fullback Adam Prentice has shown enough value to earn a spot on the 53-man roster ahead of the team's fourth running back options (Jaleel McLaughlin, Tyler Badie, Cody Schrader).
- Nick ShookRoster Spot Calls · Aaron DonaldHit · 100Shook unveiled his first NFL power rankings of the year, putting the Rams first, the Broncos second and the defending champion Seahawks only third, with the Dolphins last.