Mike Renner· Apr 14, 2026
In his three-round mock draft, Renner has the Bills taking UCF edge rusher Malachi Lawrence at No. 26 and Kentucky interior offensive lineman Jalen Farmer at No. 91.
“Lawrence brings the juice. The bill's edge group is lacking.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Bills (podcast) · read the original →
2 checkable claims — 2 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 2 have settled, averaging 63.2 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pick91They said
113What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
2 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksJalen FarmerBuffalo BillsApr 14, 2026
Jalen Farmer to be picked at number 91
“And then at 91, Mike Renner has the Bills drafting Jalen Farmer, an interior offensive lineman from Kentucky.”
Miss · 39Scored 38.56 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Jalen Farmer
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 38.56
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 113
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 38.56
- predicted pick:
- 91
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
- Mock Draft PicksMalachi LawrenceBuffalo BillsApr 14, 2026
Malachi Lawrence to be picked at number 26
“At pick 26, Mike Renner has the Bills selecting Malachi Lawrence, the edge rusher from UCF.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Malachi Lawrence
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 23
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 26
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
What others said about the same people
- Carmen VitaliGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100In the show's weekly picks segment Vitali took the Broncos over the Rams, the Ravens over the Cowboys in Rio, Tampa at home over Minnesota, the Bills over the Chargers and the Eagles on the road in Chicago. She also agreed that Caleb Williams would be out roughly two to three weeks.
- Tracy SandlerGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Sandler predicted Caleb Williams would miss two to three weeks with his hamstring injury, and in the picks segment took the Broncos, Ravens, Vikings, Bills and Bears (switching off an earlier Tampa pick).
- Chris BroussardGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Broussard picked the Bills to beat the Chargers in a competitive, higher-scoring game, said the Chiefs will rout the Dolphins, and for upset alert parlayed the Patriots over the Jaguars and the Raiders over the Saints. He also restated his Cowboys-versus-Ravens Super Bowl matchup pick.
- Dwight FreeneyGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Freeney said the Chargers' volume of mistakes is too great to fix in a week and that fans shouldn't expect Los Angeles to beat Buffalo.
- Colin CowherdGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100The co-host (identified only as "Mitchell") made his own Week 3 picks, including blowout wins for Seattle and San Francisco, Cincinnati 27-17, Detroit 37-13, Denver 24-21 over the Rams, and predicted Jonah Coleman takes over the Broncos' running back role.
- Richard ShermanGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Sherman picked winners and several exact scores across the Week 3 slate, favoring Seattle, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Detroit, Green Bay, Carolina, New Orleans, Baltimore, the Rams, Philadelphia, Buffalo, Kansas City, Minnesota, the Giants, Jacksonville and Houston, and named Kenneth Walker his MVP.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
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- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 92Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day.
- Bucky BrooksMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 81In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13.