Cynthia Frelund· Sep 26, 2025
Per Rosenthal, Frelund's model picks the Jets over the Dolphins, the Packers over the Cowboys (her top confidence pick), and the Commanders to win in Atlanta.
said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast) · read the original →
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3 checkable claims — 3 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 3 have settled, averaging 16.7 out of 100, against 83.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
3 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksNew York JetsSep 26, 2025
New York Jets to beat Miami
“Again, she has the Jets and the Packers Jets plus two and a half.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-183 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- MIA
- score:
- 21-27
- skill:
- -183
- they picked:
- NYJ
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- MIA
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 15
- Game Outcome PicksGreen Bay PackersSep 26, 2025
Green Bay Packers to beat Cowboys
“me and Cynthia and her computer model are agreeing... these are our favorite confidence picks of the week, which is Packers minus seven.”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 50+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- tie
- score:
- 40-40
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- GB
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 50
- the naive pick:
- DAL
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 15
- Game Outcome PicksWashington CommandersSep 26, 2025
Washington Commanders to beat Atlanta
“So Cynthia's third pick, by the way, the Washington Commanders... She has them as a road favorite in Atlanta.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-183 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- ATL
- score:
- 27-34
- skill:
- -183
- they picked:
- WAS
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- ATL
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 15
What others said about the same people
- Seth WalderTrade and Signing Calls · Kayshon BoutteMiss · 0Walder proposes five trades he believes should happen before Week 1 of the 2026 season: Jessie Bates III to the 49ers, Kayvon Thibodeaux to the Patriots, Keon Coleman to the Colts, Walker Little to the Cardinals, and Kayshon Boutte to the Commanders, where he says Boutte would immediately be Washington's No. 2 receiver.
- Garrett PodellTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsHit · 100A CBS Sports report frames Stefon Diggs as filling Washington's vacant No. 2 receiver role opposite Terry McLaurin after his reported one-year deal, expecting him in that spot in the 2026 passing game with Jayden Daniels.
- Bucky BrooksTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsHit · 100In a quarterback rapid-fire segment and later discussion, Brooks named starters for several clubs (Kyler Murray over JJ McCarthy in Minnesota, Shedeur Sanders in Cleveland, Tua in Atlanta, Jeremiah Love as Arizona's starting running back), called Chris Olave a No. 1 receiver, backed Stefon Diggs landing with the Commanders and Aaron Donald returning to the Rams, argued Baker Mayfield belongs among the top 15-17 quarterbacks, and published a top-five defensive tackle list topped by Jeffrey Simmons.
- Joe MarinoTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsHit · 100Marino projects DJ Moore to bounce back in Buffalo's offense with over 1,000 receiving yards (talking up around 1,200), and expects rookie cornerback Davison Igbinosun (IGB) to win a starting job opposite Christian Benford. He also thinks free agent Stefon Diggs ends up signing with Washington.
- Gregg RosenthalTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsHit · 100Rosenthal picked rookies he expects to start right away — a Steelers left tackle and Colts linebacker — said Terry McLaurin is Washington's clear No. 1 receiver, and said he wouldn't be surprised if the Commanders signed Stefon Diggs as a solid No. 2.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · R Mason ThomasClose · 59In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Nick WrightGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Nick Wright expects the Bills to beat the Lions comfortably in the Thursday night home opener, with Josh Allen shredding a depleted Detroit secondary, and he also picks a workmanlike Chiefs win over the Colts on Sunday night. He further predicts Tyreek Hill will end up on the Chiefs by around Halloween.
- Tyler SullivanGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsMiss · 0A CBS Sports column flags five Week 2 favorites on upset alert, effectively backing the underdogs — Lions at Bills, Bengals at Texans, Jets over Packers, Jaguars at Broncos and Saints at Ravens — to pull off wins.
- Richard ShermanGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Sherman ran through the entire Week 2 slate with winners and several exact final scores, picking Seattle, San Francisco, Buffalo, Houston, Chicago, New England, Jacksonville, Dallas, Kansas City, the Rams, Green Bay, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Las Vegas and Carolina. He also called Fred Warner the league's best middle linebacker and floated Parker Washington as a top-five receiver.
- Colin CowherdGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsMiss · 0The co-host (identified only as "Mitchell") gave his own Week 2 picks: Seattle, the Niners in dominant fashion, his Lions over Buffalo, Cincinnati 31-27 at Houston, Chicago, Pittsburgh 24-21 as a road upset, Jacksonville by at least a touchdown, Dallas 26-22, and Kansas City handily.
- Joe MarinoGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Marino predicts the Bills beat the Lions in the Thursday night home opener to go 2-0, and expects a shootout with Goff and Allen combining for over 600 passing yards (each with a good chance at 300+).
- Walter CherepinskyGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100In the Week 2 Thursday night game, he predicts the Bills beat the Lions 31-24, expecting Detroit's offense to bounce back but Buffalo to prevail, with Josh Allen thriving and James Cook struggling again.