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Walter Cherepinsky· Sep 15, 2026

In the Week 2 Thursday night game, he predicts the Bills beat the Lions 31-24, expecting Detroit's offense to bounce back but Buffalo to prevail, with Josh Allen thriving and James Cook struggling again.

Week 2 NFL Pick: Bills 31, Lions 24

published in writing · Walter Football · read the original →

2 checkable claims — 1 game outcome pick and 1 score prediction — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 2 have settled, averaging 96.4 out of 100, against 89.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Who this take is about

The game in this take

2 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Buffalo Bills to win

    Week 2 NFL Pick: Bills 31, Lions 24

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    BUF
    score:
    31-41
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    BUF
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17

    Think this is wrong?

  • Buffalo Bills 31 — Lions 24

    Week 2 NFL Pick: Bills 31, Lions 24

    Hit · 93Scored 92.86a naive guess scored 79.41+26.08 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    31-41
    skill:
    26.08
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    92.86
    baseline:
    79.41
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    10
    weeks left when called:
    17
    naive home margin:
    1.35
    predicted margin:
    7

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

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