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Pat Fitzmaurice· Aug 22, 2026

FantasyPros' Fitz lays out his 2026 draft board: Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs at the top (with a slight lean to Bijan), followed by the 'Big Three' receivers Ja'Marr Chase, Puka Nacua and Jaxson Smith-Njigba as his third through fifth picks. He fades Josh Allen, Trey McBride, Samaje Perine and Jerry Jeudy at their draft costs while touting mid-round values at QB and TE.

I slightly prefer Bijan.

published in writing · FantasyPros · read the original →

11 checkable claims — 6 sleeper calls, 4 fantasy bust calls and 1 fantasy ranking — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 13 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.

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Who this take is about

11 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Fantasy RankingsAug 22, 2026

    if I draw either the 1.01 or 1.02 spot, I'm drafting Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs... I slightly prefer Bijan... Picks 1.03, 1.04, and 1.05 are where the Big Three at wide receiver dwell: Ja'Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, and Jaxson Smith-Njigba. Those three are my third, fourth, and fifth picks in start-3WR leagues.

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

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  • Tucker Kraft to outplay his draft cost (a sixth-round ADP)

    Tucker Kraft has a sixth-round ADP... He reportedly expects to be ready for Week 1 and should be a key contributor to the Green Bay passing game.

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

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  • Kyle Pitts to outplay his draft cost (being drafted in the seventh round)

    The much-maligned Kyle Pitts is being drafted in the seventh round... Kevin Stefanski is the Falcons' new head coach, and the tight ends in Stefanski's Cleveland offenses averaged 164.3 targets over the last three seasons.

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

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  • Josh Allen to fall short of his draft cost (a late-third-round ADP)

    The talent pool is so deep that it's not worth sacrificing the chance to draft a top-20 running back or receiver for the chance to take Josh Allen, the consensus QB1. Allen has a late-third-round ADP.

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

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  • Justin Herbert to outplay his draft cost (an ADP of QB9 and is going in the back half of the seventh round)

    His offensive line should be healthier and better, and the arrival of offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel could help unlock the sort of big passing numbers that Herbert produced in his first three seasons.

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

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  • Trevor Lawrence to outplay his draft cost (an ADP of QB10 and is coming off the board around the seventh-round/eighth-round turn)

    Trevor Lawrence has an ADP of QB10 and is coming off the board around the seventh-round/eighth-round turn... The middle rounds, not the early rounds, are where you should do your QB shopping.

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

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  • Trey McBride to fall short of his draft cost (the first four rounds)

    There are three tight ends guaranteed to land in the first four rounds: Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, and Colston Loveland. I'm willing to draft Bowers and Loveland at cost, but not McBride.

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

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  • Harold Fannin Jr. to outplay his draft cost (coming off the board around the sixth-round/seventh-round turn)

    Harold Fannin is coming off the board around the sixth-round/seventh-round turn... there are some gems to be mined at tight end in the middle rounds.

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

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  • Jerry Jeudy to fall short of his draft cost (the late rounds)

    But there is no reason to draft Jeudy in 2026. The Browns just spent early-round draft picks on WRs KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston.

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

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  • Samaje Perine to fall short of his draft cost

    But Perine has no stand-alone value and would be nothing more than an insurance policy – and probably a bad one, since Perine would have a hard time matching Brown's numbers even if he inherited Brown's volume.

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

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  • Brock Purdy to outplay his draft cost (a late-eighth-round ADP)

    Brock Purdy has a late-eighth-round ADP... I would rather have a Brock Purdy/Ladd McConkey combo than a Josh Allen/Michael Wilson combo.

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

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