Pat Gustavson· Apr 22, 2026
Gustafson handled the even-numbered mock draft picks: David Bailey No. 2 to the Jets, Jeremiah Love No. 4 to the Titans, Karnell Tate No. 6 to the Browns, Ruben Bane No. 8 to the Saints, Jordan Tyson No. 10 to the Giants, and so on. He also said Ty Simpson will be the biggest first-round bust and predicted the Cowboys will trade up into the top five.
“I'm actually gonna go with David Bailey here, the edge rusher from Texas Tech.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Bran Coverage with BenchwarmerBran (podcast) · read the original →
20 checkable claims — 14 mock draft picks, 3 draft bust calls, 1 depth chart call, 1 team draft slot call and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 30 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
14 of 20 have settled so far, averaging 68.4 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
- David Bailey
- New York Jets
- Blake Miller
- Houston Texans
- Olaivavega Ioane
- Jeremiyah Love
- Tennessee Titans
- Jermod McCoy
- Baltimore Ravens
- Caleb Lomu
- Buffalo Bills
- Monroe Freeling
- Cleveland Browns
- Cade McDonald
- Seattle Seahawks
- Carnell Tate
- Jordyn Tyson
- New York Giants
- Denzel Boston
- Miami Dolphins
- Keldric Faulk
- Dallas Cowboys
- Rueben Bain
- New Orleans Saints
- Kadyn Proctor
- Los Angeles Chargers
- K.C. Concepcion
- Chris Olave
- Tony Pollard
- Ty Simpson
20 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksDavid BaileyNew York JetsApr 22, 2026
David Bailey to be picked at number 2
“Number two overall... I'm actually gonna go with David Bailey here, the edge rusher from Texas Tech.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 84.89 against a shuffle’s 50+34.89 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 34.89
- player:
- David Bailey
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 84.89
- Mock Draft PicksBlake MillerHouston TexansApr 22, 2026
Blake Miller to be picked at number 28
“Do I take my fourth straight offensive lineman in this draft? You bet your ass I do. Blake Miller from Clemson.”
Close · 62Scored 62.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 84.89 against a shuffle’s 50+34.89 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 34.89
- player:
- Blake Miller
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 62.09
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 17
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 62.09
- predicted pick:
- 28
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 84.89
- Mock Draft PicksOlaivavega IoaneNew York JetsApr 22, 2026
Olaivavega Ioane to be picked at number 16
“I get to pick for the New York Jets again... I'm gonna go with Ola Iona here in the more in the interior.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.82 against a shuffle’s 50+31.82 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 31.82
- player:
- Olaivavega Ioane
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 14
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 16
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 81.82
- Mock Draft PicksJeremiyah LoveTennessee TitansApr 22, 2026
Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 4
“Tennessee, interesting here... I'm gonna go Jeremiah Love here.”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.82 against a shuffle’s 50+31.82 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 31.82
- player:
- Jeremiyah Love
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 81.82
- Mock Draft PicksJermod McCoyBaltimore RavensApr 22, 2026
Jermod McCoy to be picked at number 14
“the Ray the Ravens... I'm gonna go Jermaine McCoy here.”
Miss · 2Scored 2.31 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.82 against a shuffle’s 50+31.82 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 31.82
- player:
- Jermod McCoy
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 2.31
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 101
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 2.31
- predicted pick:
- 14
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 81.82
- Mock Draft PicksCaleb LomuBuffalo BillsApr 22, 2026
Caleb Lomu to be picked at number 26
“So the Buffalo Bills... They need help on the line. Caleb Lomus here. He's my pick.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.82 against a shuffle’s 50+31.82 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 31.82
- player:
- Caleb Lomu
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 28
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 26
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 81.82
- Mock Draft PicksMonroe FreelingCleveland BrownsApr 22, 2026
Monroe Freeling to be picked at number 24
“I think this is honestly one of the ideal scenarios for the Browns to get Tate at six and then get Freeling here.”
Hit · 81Scored 80.52 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.82 against a shuffle’s 50+31.82 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 31.82
- player:
- Monroe Freeling
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 80.52
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 19
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 80.52
- predicted pick:
- 24
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 81.82
- Mock Draft PicksCade McDonaldSeattle SeahawksApr 22, 2026
Cade McDonald to be picked at number 32
“To round this out, I'm gonna go with Caden McDonald from Ohio State.”
Miss · 0Scored 0 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.82 against a shuffle’s 50+31.82 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 31.82
- player:
- Cade McDonald
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- undrafted
- outcome:
- went undrafted in 2026; later signed with CLE
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- undrafted
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0
- predicted pick:
- 32
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 81.82
- Mock Draft PicksCarnell TateCleveland BrownsApr 22, 2026
Carnell Tate to be picked at number 6
“So I'm gonna go with Karnell Tate here from Ohio State.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.82 against a shuffle’s 50+31.82 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 31.82
- player:
- Carnell Tate
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 6
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 81.82
- Mock Draft PicksJordyn TysonNew York GiantsApr 22, 2026
Jordyn Tyson to be picked at number 10
“I I would say Jordan Tyson is the pick here at the Giants.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.82 against a shuffle’s 50+31.82 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 31.82
- player:
- Jordyn Tyson
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 8
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 10
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 81.82
- Mock Draft PicksDenzel BostonMiami DolphinsApr 22, 2026
Denzel Boston to be picked at number 30
“I am going to take Denzel Boston here Okay. With the pick over Omar Cooper Junior”
Close · 68Scored 67.71 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.82 against a shuffle’s 50+31.82 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 31.82
- player:
- Denzel Boston
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 67.71
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 39
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 67.71
- predicted pick:
- 30
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 81.82
- Mock Draft PicksKeldric FaulkDallas CowboysApr 22, 2026
Keldric Faulk to be picked at number 12
“I think they'll go Keldrick Falk Okay. From Auburn.”
Close · 44Scored 43.91 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.82 against a shuffle’s 50+31.82 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 31.82
- player:
- Keldric Faulk
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 43.91
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 31
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 43.91
- predicted pick:
- 12
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 81.82
- Mock Draft PicksRueben BainNew Orleans SaintsApr 22, 2026
Rueben Bain to be picked at number 8
“I'm gonna go Ruben Bane, the head rusher from Miami”
Close · 74Scored 73.84 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.82 against a shuffle’s 50+31.82 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 31.82
- player:
- Rueben Bain
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 73.84
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 15
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 73.84
- predicted pick:
- 8
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 81.82
Kadyn Proctor to be picked at number 22
“Kaden Proctor's here. The tackle from Alabama. I think he's I think he's the pick here”
Close · 65Scored 64.84 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.82 against a shuffle’s 50+31.82 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 31.82
- player:
- Kadyn Proctor
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 64.84
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 12
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 64.84
- predicted pick:
- 22
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 81.82
- Draft Bust CallsJordyn TysonApr 22, 2026
Jordyn Tyson to disappoint at the next level
“I'll go I'll go Jordan Tyson.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Draft Bust CallsK.C. ConcepcionApr 22, 2026
K.C. Concepcion to disappoint at the next level
“I'll go Casey Concepcion. Why not?”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Depth Chart CallsChris OlaveNew Orleans SaintsApr 22, 2026
Chris Olave to be 1st on the depth chart
“if the Saints take a wide receiver, Chris Olave is still that guy”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Trade and Signing CallsTony PollardApr 22, 2026
Tony Pollard to move
“I feel like if they draft Jeremiah Love, one of Tony Pollard or Taijae Spears is hitting the road.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Draft Bust CallsTy SimpsonApr 22, 2026
Ty Simpson to disappoint at the next level
“Tye Simpson, because he's gonna get picked in the first round and then I I think also the wide receivers”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Team Draft Slot CallsDallas CowboysApr 22, 2026
Dallas Cowboys to pick “picking in the top five” (picks 1–5)
“I 100% think that they will be picking in the top five. I think they will trade up with either Tennessee or Arizona”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Carmen VitaliGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100In the show's weekly picks segment Vitali took the Broncos over the Rams, the Ravens over the Cowboys in Rio, Tampa at home over Minnesota, the Bills over the Chargers and the Eagles on the road in Chicago. She also agreed that Caleb Williams would be out roughly two to three weeks.
- Tracy SandlerGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Sandler predicted Caleb Williams would miss two to three weeks with his hamstring injury, and in the picks segment took the Broncos, Ravens, Vikings, Bills and Bears (switching off an earlier Tampa pick).
- John MiddlekauffGame Outcome Picks · Tennessee TitansMiss · 0Middlekauff expects blowout wins for Seattle over Washington and Kansas City over Miami in Week 3, picks Cincinnati to beat Pittsburgh in the AFC North matchup, and takes Tennessee over the Giants if Jameis Winston is taking snaps.
- Nick WrightScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 33On his Week 3 pick show, Nick Wright gave straight-up final-score predictions for five games, calling blowouts by Seattle over Washington and Kansas City over Miami, a Jacksonville home win over New England, a narrow New Orleans win over the Raiders and a low-scoring Baltimore win over Dallas in Brazil. He also called Seattle the best team in the NFL with the league's best defense.
- Eric ManginiGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles ChargersMiss · 0In his taped upset alert, the coach took the winless Chargers to beat the undefeated Bills, citing Los Angeles' desperation and Buffalo's leaky defense.
- Kevin WildesGame Outcome Picks · New York JetsMiss · 0For upset alert Wildes took the Broncos to beat the Rams straight up in Denver and added the Jets to beat the Lions straight up.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Emmanuel McNeil-WarrenMiss · 18Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Jeff CavanaughMock Draft Picks · Lorenzo StylesMiss · 1Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40.
- Pat FitzmauriceMock Draft Picks · Makai LemonHit · 96Making a third of the mock's picks, he gave Reuben Bain to Arizona at 3, Francis Mauinoa to Cleveland at 6, Jeremiah Love to Kansas City at 9, Mansoor Delane to Dallas at 12, Cassius Howell to Tampa Bay at 15, Avieon Terrell to Minnesota at 18, Makai Lemon to Pittsburgh at 21, KC Concepcion to Cleveland at 24, Kadyn Proctor to San Francisco at 27 and TJ Parker to New England at 30.
- Scott BogmanMock Draft Picks · Kayden McDonaldClose · 48He gave David Bailey to Tennessee at 4, Sonny Styles to Washington at 7, Caleb Downs to Cincinnati at 10, Carnell Tate to the Rams at 13, Denzel Boston to the Jets at 16, Kayden McDonald to Carolina at 19, Vega Ioane to the Chargers at 22, Peter Woods to Chicago at 25, Emmanuel Pregnon to Houston at 28 and Romello Height to Denver at 31, and insisted both Bailey and Downs are top-10 locks.
- Steve MenschMock Draft Picks · Makai LemonHit · 100Making the even-numbered picks in the mock, he sent Arvell Reese to the Jets at No. 2, Spencer Fano to the Giants at 5, Jordan Tyson to the Saints at 8, a Tennessee cornerback to Miami at 11, Keldric Faulk to Baltimore at 14, Akheem Mesidor to Dallas at 20, Kenyon Sadiq to Philadelphia at 23, Caleb Banks to Buffalo at 26, Ty Simpson to the Rams at 29 and Chris Johnson to Seattle at 32, plus Caleb Lomu to Detroit at 17.