David Harrison· Mar 23, 2026
In his Mock Draft Monday, Harrison projects the top nine picks of the 2026 NFL Draft, with Fernando Mendoza first overall to the Raiders, two trades in the top 10, and the Commanders trading back from No. 7 to select LSU cornerback Mansoor Delaine at No. 9; he then lays out Washington's full class from Round 3 on.
“Mansourde Lane is the pick for Washington, but it's not at number seven.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Commanders (podcast) · read the original →
18 checkable claims — 15 mock draft picks and 3 team draft slot calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 24 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
15 of 18 have settled so far, averaging 67.6 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 3 unsettled calls enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room on every one.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
- Sonny Styles
- New York Giants
- Ar'maj Reed-Adams
- Washington Commanders
- David Bailey
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Arvell Reese
- New York Jets
- Fernando Mendoza
- Las Vegas Raiders
- Francis Mauigoa
- Arizona Cardinals
- Jeremiyah Love
- Tennessee Titans
- Rueben Bain
- Dallas Cowboys
- Carnell Tate
- New Orleans Saints
- Mansoor Delane
- Antonio Williams
- Romello Height
- Austin Barber
- Zavion Thomas
- Deven Eastern
18 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksSonny StylesNew York GiantsMar 23, 2026
Sonny Styles to be picked at number 5
“They're at number five for the New York Giants linebacker out of Ohio State... here, they go Sonny Styles in the first round.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 90.89 against a shuffle’s 50+40.89 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 40.89
- player:
- Sonny Styles
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 90.89
Ar'maj Reed-Adams to be picked at number 187
“Pick number one eighty seven, Armaje Reed Adams, guard out of Texas A and M”
Miss · 10Scored 9.64 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 90.89 against a shuffle’s 50+40.89 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 40.89
- player:
- Ar'maj Reed-Adams
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 9.64
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 241
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 9.64
- predicted pick:
- 187
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 90.89
- Mock Draft PicksDavid BaileyKansas City ChiefsMar 23, 2026
David Bailey to be picked at number 7
“They send number nine... to the Washington match for pick number seven... They take David Bailey.”
Hit · 81Scored 80.52 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 90.89 against a shuffle’s 50+40.89 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 40.89
- player:
- David Bailey
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 80.52
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 80.52
- predicted pick:
- 7
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 90.89
- Mock Draft PicksArvell ReeseNew York JetsMar 23, 2026
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 2
“the best player available on the board to me is Ohio State linebacker slash edge, whatever you wanna call him, R. Vell Reese. So that is the number two pick in this mock draft.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 93.71 against a shuffle’s 50+43.71 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 43.71
- player:
- Arvell Reese
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 93.71
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“Number one, Las Vegas Raiders... The pick, Fernando Mendoza, quarterback out of Indiana.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 94.55 against a shuffle’s 50+44.55 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 44.55
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 94.55
- Mock Draft PicksFrancis MauigoaArizona CardinalsMar 23, 2026
Francis Mauigoa to be picked at number 3
“I think the pick here is a rare top three right tackle. Francis Maui Goa, right tackle out of Miami, Florida.”
Close · 74Scored 73.84 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 94.55 against a shuffle’s 50+44.55 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 44.55
- player:
- Francis Mauigoa
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 73.84
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 73.84
- predicted pick:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 94.55
- Mock Draft PicksJeremiyah LoveTennessee TitansMar 23, 2026
Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 4
“Number four... Jeremiah Love, running back Notre Dame to the Tennessee titans.”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 94.55 against a shuffle’s 50+44.55 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 44.55
- player:
- Jeremiyah Love
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 94.55
- Mock Draft PicksRueben BainDallas CowboysMar 23, 2026
Rueben Bain to be picked at number 6
“they trade up with the Cleveland Browns... for the number six overall pick... they take Miami Edge, Reuben Bain Junior”
Close · 68Scored 67.71 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 94.55 against a shuffle’s 50+44.55 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 44.55
- player:
- Rueben Bain
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 67.71
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 15
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 67.71
- predicted pick:
- 6
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 94.55
- Mock Draft PicksCarnell TateNew Orleans SaintsMar 23, 2026
Carnell Tate to be picked at number 8
“The New Orleans Saints take wide receiver Carnell Tate out of Ohio State”
Hit · 84Scored 84.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 94.55 against a shuffle’s 50+44.55 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 44.55
- player:
- Carnell Tate
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 84.09
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 84.09
- predicted pick:
- 8
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 94.55
Mansoor Delane to be picked at number 9
“at number nine, the Washington mayor's draft. Man, Stewart Delaney, cornerback out of LSU in this week's mock draft.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 94.55 against a shuffle’s 50+44.55 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 44.55
- player:
- Mansoor Delane
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 9
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 94.55
Antonio Williams to be picked at number 71
“with the seventy first overall pick in the NFL draft... we go and get Antonio Williams wide receiver”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 94.55 against a shuffle’s 50+44.55 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 44.55
- player:
- Antonio Williams
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 71
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 71
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 94.55
Romello Height to be picked at number 74
“Third round, seventy fourth overall pick... Romello height edge rusher out of Texas Tech.”
Hit · 84Scored 84.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 94.55 against a shuffle’s 50+44.55 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 44.55
- player:
- Romello Height
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 84.09
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 70
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 84.09
- predicted pick:
- 74
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 94.55
Austin Barber to be picked at number 147
“Pick number one forty seven. We go offensive line here. Austin Barber offensive tackle out of Florida”
Miss · 7Scored 7.12 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 94.55 against a shuffle’s 50+44.55 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 44.55
- player:
- Austin Barber
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 7.12
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 86
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 7.12
- predicted pick:
- 147
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 94.55
Zavion Thomas to be picked at number 209
“Number 209, our second pick in the sixth round, wide receiver, Zavion Thomas.”
Miss · 1Scored 0.55 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 94.55 against a shuffle’s 50+44.55 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 44.55
- player:
- Zavion Thomas
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 0.55
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 89
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0.55
- predicted pick:
- 209
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 94.55
Deven Eastern to be picked at number 223
“Final final pick, two twenty three, seventh round, Devin Eastern, defensive lineman out of Minnesota.”
Close · 44Scored 43.91 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 94.55 against a shuffle’s 50+44.55 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 44.55
- player:
- Deven Eastern
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 43.91
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 242
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 43.91
- predicted pick:
- 223
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 94.55
- Team Draft Slot CallsWashington CommandersMar 23, 2026
Washington Commanders to pick at number 9
“they end up with him at pick number nine. Two trades happening in the top 10 here in my latest mock draft Monday”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Team Draft Slot CallsDallas CowboysMar 23, 2026
Dallas Cowboys to pick at number 6
“So they trade up with the Cleveland Browns. The cowboys said number 12 and number 96 in 2026... to Cleveland for the number six overall pick.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Team Draft Slot CallsKansas City ChiefsMar 23, 2026
Kansas City Chiefs to pick at number 7
“So the Kansas City Chiefs... They send number nine. In the first round, they send number 74... to the Washington match for pick number seven.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Tyler SullivanRoster Spot Calls · Jake HaenerMiss · 0Sullivan expects the Giants, thin at quarterback after Jaxson Dart's season-ending knee injury, to elevate Jake Haener from the practice squad for Week 3.
- Randy GurziRoster Spot Calls · Reddy StewardMiss · 0Gurzi predicts the Cowboys' 17-man practice squad, naming each player he expects Dallas to sign, including a surprise addition of released Giants tackle Evan Neal. He also predicts Jaydon Blue will be claimed off waivers by another team and that Sam Williams will land elsewhere.
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Devin DuvernayHit · 100PFF's preseason usage recap makes a number of depth-chart and roster projections, including nine rookie receivers slotting as top-three options on their teams, sleeper tight end usage, and specific depth-chart placements for Cardinals, Falcons and Ravens players.
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Devin DuvernayHit · 100An unsigned PFF preseason recap makes numerous depth-chart, roster and usage projections across the league, based on Week 3 preseason playing time — including Roman Wilson winning Pittsburgh's third receiver job, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Charlie Kolar as the Chargers' top tight end, and Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2.
- Patricia TrainaRoster Spot Calls · Paulson AdeboHit · 100Traina projects the Giants' initial 53-man roster position by position, naming who makes the team and who lands on the practice squad, including keeping Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Evan Neal (with a possible trade), Dalen Cambre over Braxton Berrios, Lucas Patrick as backup center, and Dominic Zvada as the kicker.
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Devin DuvernayHit · 100PFF's preseason fantasy recap makes a series of depth-chart, roster and usage projections based on final-week preseason snap counts, including Ja'Kobi Lane locking down the Ravens' third receiver role, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Kyle Pitts facing reduced 12-personnel usage, Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2 and Emmett Johnson as the Chiefs' backup running back.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Jeff CavanaughMock Draft Picks · Lorenzo StylesMiss · 1Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40.
- Scott BogmanMock Draft Picks · Olaivavega IoaneClose · 71He gave David Bailey to Tennessee at 4, Sonny Styles to Washington at 7, Caleb Downs to Cincinnati at 10, Carnell Tate to the Rams at 13, Denzel Boston to the Jets at 16, Kayden McDonald to Carolina at 19, Vega Ioane to the Chargers at 22, Peter Woods to Chicago at 25, Emmanuel Pregnon to Houston at 28 and Romello Height to Denver at 31, and insisted both Bailey and Downs are top-10 locks.
- Steve MenschMock Draft Picks · Caleb LomuClose · 62Making the even-numbered picks in the mock, he sent Arvell Reese to the Jets at No. 2, Spencer Fano to the Giants at 5, Jordan Tyson to the Saints at 8, a Tennessee cornerback to Miami at 11, Keldric Faulk to Baltimore at 14, Akheem Mesidor to Dallas at 20, Kenyon Sadiq to Philadelphia at 23, Caleb Banks to Buffalo at 26, Ty Simpson to the Rams at 29 and Chris Johnson to Seattle at 32, plus Caleb Lomu to Detroit at 17.