Marcus Mosher· Jan 19, 2024
Mosher ranks the top nine quarterbacks expected to hit free agency in March 2024, with Kirk Cousins first and Baker Mayfield second, and forecasts where most of them will land — Mayfield back in Tampa Bay, Minshew back in Indianapolis, Darnold back in San Francisco as a backup, Winston staying in New Orleans as a backup and Huntley remaining a backup with Baltimore.
“With all the success Mayfield is having in Tampa Bay, it would be a major upset if he didn't land back with the Buccaneers in 2024.”
published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived Mar 11, 2024) →
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.
11 checkable claims — 5 depth chart calls, 5 trade and signing calls and 1 top player list — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 12 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
6 of 11 have settled so far, averaging 95 out of 100, against 86.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
Their call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
11 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Depth Chart CallsTyler HuntleyBaltimore RavensJan 19, 2024
Tyler Huntley to be 2nd on the depth chart
“But don't expect Huntley to get anything more than a backup job in free agency.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- BAL
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Tyler Huntley
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Top Player ListsJan 19, 2024
“Here are the top nine quarterbacks that are expected to test free agency in March: Ranking Top Free Agent QBs 1. Kirk Cousins ... 9. Tyrod Taylor”
Close · 78Scored 78.33a naive guess scored 50+28.33 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- 28.33
- placed:
- 9
- season:
- 2023
- players:
- 9
- accuracy:
- 78.33
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- QB 9: 78.33
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 0
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Depth Chart CallsJacoby BrissettJan 19, 2024
Jacoby Brissett to be 2nd on the depth chart
“Expect him to be a backup again in 2024, but to be in a situation where he might have a better chance of getting on the field again.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+8.33 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- WAS
- skill:
- 8.33
- player:
- Jacoby Brissett
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Depth Chart CallsSam DarnoldSan Francisco 49ersJan 19, 2024
Sam Darnold to be 2nd on the depth chart
“it's more likely he returns to San Francisco to be the backup again”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+8.33 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- 8.33
- player:
- Sam Darnold
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Jameis Winston to be 2nd on the depth chart
“The most likely outcome is Winston will remain the backup quarterback in New Orleans on a new deal”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- NO
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Jameis Winston
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Depth Chart CallsTyrod TaylorJan 19, 2024
Tyrod Taylor to be 2nd on the depth chart
“Look for teams with young quarterbacks on rookie deals to bring in Taylor as a backup.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 83.33+8.33 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- NYG
- skill:
- 8.33
- player:
- Tyrod Taylor
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 83.33
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 3
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Baker Mayfield to move to Tampa Bay Buccaneers
“it would be a major upset if he didn't land back with the Buccaneers in 2024”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Jameis Winston to move to New Orleans Saints
“The most likely outcome is Winston will remain the backup quarterback in New Orleans on a new deal”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Gardner Minshew to move to Indianapolis Colts
“Expect him to return to Indianapolis on a short deal.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Tyler Huntley to move to Baltimore Ravens
“It would be a big shock if another team stole him from the Ravens.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Sam Darnold to move to San Francisco 49ers
“it's more likely he returns to San Francisco to be the backup again”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Bucky BrooksTrade and Signing Calls · Keenan AllenHit · 100Brooks predicted J.J. McCarthy won't be on the Vikings' roster (traded or released), said Kyler Murray wins the Vikings' QB competition, made a series of 2025 award picks, made 2026 Heisman/draft projections including Arch Manning as the front-runner for the No. 1 overall pick, and said none of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen or Joe Burrow win a championship this season.
- Joel CorryTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldMiss · 0The unsigned CBS Sports analysis lays out the contract it believes Tampa Bay will have to give Mayfield at minimum: a two-year extension averaging $50 million per year with $110 million in guarantees and a no-trade clause.
- Jason McIntyreTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldMiss · 0Filling in for Colin Cowherd, McIntyre argued the 49ers' window is closed amid a brutal injury list and record travel, floated a Bijan Robinson trade to the Bears, predicted the Lions can win the NFC North, doubted Atlanta is even a playoff team, said Baker Mayfield's Tampa run ends after this season, and delivered a top-10 quarterback ranking.
- Mike TannenbaumTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsMiss · 0Tannenbaum argues the Chiefs should lean on the run game early while Mahomes recovers, says the Bills haven't done enough at receiver and would repeat their playoff shortcoming, expects AJ Brown to have a massive impact in New England, thinks George Pickens will earn a big raise, and offers free-agent fits: Deebo Samuel to Buffalo, Joey Bosa to Tampa Bay, Taylor Decker to Houston, and Stefon Diggs to San Francisco.
- Danny ParkinsTrade and Signing Calls · Trey HendricksonMiss · 0Parkins predicts Fernando Mendoza goes No. 1 overall to the Raiders, Trey Hendrickson signs in Tampa, Michael Penix Jr. wins Atlanta's QB competition, Jared Wilson takes over at center in New England, Mike Evans reaches 1,000 yards, and the Bears lose Byard and Brisker.
- Jake CielyTrade and Signing Calls · Romeo DoubsMiss · 0On a Fantasy Pros free-agency show, Jake Seely gave his projected 2026 landing spots for a long list of free agents, including Aaron Rodgers to Minnesota, Daniel Jones back to Indianapolis, Malik Willis to Miami, Alec Pierce to the Raiders, Mike Evans to the 49ers, Deebo Samuel to Pittsburgh, Kenneth Walker to Arizona, Breece Hall to Kansas City and Kyle Pitts and Dallas Goedert re-signing with their current teams.
More depth chart calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Tyler SullivanDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100An unsigned CBS Sports preseason review grading all 32 teams, which along the way stakes out a number of depth-chart calls for Week 1 and beyond — including Deshaun Watson opening as Cleveland's starter, Fernando Mendoza taking over as Las Vegas' QB1 by season's end, and Minnesota's Murray-Wentz-McCarthy quarterback order.
- Ryan WilsonDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100A CBS Sports piece states Deshaun Watson has won Cleveland's starting quarterback job for Week 1 with Shedeur Sanders next in line, while arguing Watson will not play like even an average NFL quarterback and that none of the Browns' current young passers should stop them from drafting a first-round quarterback next April.
- Rafael ZamoranoDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100Zamorano argues the Browns do not have a franchise quarterback and that it's unlikely Watson or Sanders is their long-term answer.
- John BreechDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100The unsigned newsletter author says Deshaun Watson will start Week 1 at Jacksonville, notes he voted for Jaxson Dart as his breakout QB rather than Caleb Williams, and says newly signed Daniel Carlson is the favorite to win the Saints' kicking job.
- Mark ChichesterDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100Unsigned PFF piece reporting/asserting that Deshaun Watson will be Cleveland's Week 1 starting quarterback against Jacksonville, with Shedeur Sanders behind him on the depth chart.
- Zachary PerelesDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100The unsigned recap argues Sanders clearly outplayed Watson and, even if Sanders isn't named the Week 1 starter, predicts both quarterbacks will see significant playing time in 2026.