Marcus Mosher · Jan 19, 2024

Mosher ranks the top nine quarterbacks expected to hit free agency in March 2024, with Kirk Cousins first and Baker Mayfield second, and forecasts where most of them will land — Mayfield back in Tampa Bay, Minshew back in Indianapolis, Darnold back in San Francisco as a backup, Winston staying in New Orleans as a backup and Huntley remaining a backup with Baltimore.

“With all the success Mayfield is having in Tampa Bay, it would be a major upset if he didn't land back with the Buccaneers in 2024.”

published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived Mar 11, 2024) →

The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.

11 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Top Player ListsJan 19, 2024
“Here are the top nine quarterbacks that are expected to test free agency in March: Ranking Top Free Agent QBs 1. Kirk Cousins ... 9. Tyrod Taylor”
Scored 78.33a naive guess scored 50+28.33 skill
How this was scored
naive:
a coin-flip ordering scores 50
skill:
28.33
placed:
9
season:
2023
players:
9
accuracy:
78.33
baseline:
50
by position:
QB 9: 78.33
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
could not place:
0
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart CallsJan 19, 2024
“But don't expect Huntley to get anything more than a backup job in free agency.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
BAL
skill:
0
player:
Tyler Huntley
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
position:
QB
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
2
difficulty:
1
measured by:
passing yards
naive basis:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
2
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart CallsJan 19, 2024
“Look for teams with young quarterbacks on rookie deals to bring in Taylor as a backup.”
Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 83.33+8.33 skill
How this was scored
club:
NYG
skill:
8.33
player:
Tyrod Taylor
season:
2023
accuracy:
91.67
baseline:
83.33
position:
QB
naive slot:
3
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
1
measured by:
passing yards
naive basis:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
2
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart CallsJan 19, 2024
“The most likely outcome is Winston will remain the backup quarterback in New Orleans on a new deal”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
NO
skill:
0
player:
Jameis Winston
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
position:
QB
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
2
difficulty:
1
measured by:
passing yards
naive basis:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
2
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart CallsJan 19, 2024
“it's more likely he returns to San Francisco to be the backup again”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+8.33 skill
How this was scored
club:
SF
skill:
8.33
player:
Sam Darnold
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
91.67
position:
QB
naive slot:
1
actual slot:
2
difficulty:
1
measured by:
passing yards
naive basis:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
2
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart CallsJan 19, 2024
“Expect him to be a backup again in 2024, but to be in a situation where he might have a better chance of getting on the field again.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+8.33 skill
How this was scored
club:
WAS
skill:
8.33
player:
Jacoby Brissett
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
91.67
position:
QB
naive slot:
1
actual slot:
2
difficulty:
1
measured by:
passing yards
naive basis:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
2
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Trade and Signing CallsJan 19, 2024
“It would be a big shock if another team stole him from the Ravens.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Trade and Signing CallsJan 19, 2024
“it would be a major upset if he didn't land back with the Buccaneers in 2024”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Trade and Signing CallsJan 19, 2024
“Expect him to return to Indianapolis on a short deal.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Trade and Signing CallsJan 19, 2024
“it's more likely he returns to San Francisco to be the backup again”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Trade and Signing CallsJan 19, 2024
“The most likely outcome is Winston will remain the backup quarterback in New Orleans on a new deal”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?