Mock Drafts Eat the Week, Chris Brockman Lands at Both Ends, and the Chiefs Consensus Misses by Six | MissedTakes Daily

Two-thirds of everything graded on this site in the last seven days was a mock-draft pick. Of 2,574 settled takes, 1,610 (62.5%) were single-pick draft calls, with game outcomes (170), playoff picks (124) and depth-chart calls (110) trailing far behind. Another 1,827 new takes came in over the same stretch.

When starting this MissedTakes project, I knew drafts were going to be an important part, but I didn't realize mock-draft grading is the most lopsided category the site would track. The standing case study now covers 2,072 graded pick calls, and accuracy falls off a cliff the deeper you go:

Round 1 mocks average 76.6 accuracy with an average miss of 9.9 spots. Later-round pick projections (176 or later) average 26.9, missing by 49.6 spots, and 9 of the 93 calls we logged scored a flat zero. We actually have 36 zeros, 15 of them in the late range.

The most-missed players tell the same story from the other direction. Cornerback Jermod McCoy was mocked 21 times at an average of pick 16 and went 101st. Shedeur Sanders drew 15 mocks averaging pick 9 and went 144th. We all remember the drama, but it sticks around with that 135-spot collective whiff, which you won't be surprised is the largest in our data.

How Brockman Managed a 100 *and* a 0

The week's honors list has an oddity: Dylan O'Brien appears among both the best and the worst calls, for the same take. Going game by game through the 2025 Jets schedule and landing on 11-6, he bundled a lot of individual predictions into one segment. Some graded 100, but several graded 0. Overall, O'Brien sits at 22.73 accuracy on 12 graded takes with a MissedTakes Score of -34.09. That's a record for a single article.

Chris Brockman pulled off a version of the same trick across *two* takes. His season-preview slate (Cowboys collapse, Giants as the out-of-nowhere team, 49ers to championship weekend) graded 100 with a skill delta of +200. Then, his NFC South order, Falcons first and Saints last with the No. 1 pick, graded 0 at -200. Brockman's playoff-pick record has an overall accuracy of 68.5 on 41 graded calls. If anything, the average is what we're going to see most: people will nail it and they will fail it.

Rich Eisen also cleared 100 on a playoff take that backed the Giants and the 49ers while rejecting the four-2024-quarterbacks theme of the segment. At the bottom, Kurt Warner's Chiefs-over-Eagles Super Bowl package graded 0 at -200. We only have five graded takes for Warner, but at 0.00 accuracy.

Everyone Agrees on the Wrong Thing

The 2025 win-total consensus was absolute chaos. In 13 recorded Kansas City calls, the field averaged 6.3 wins too high — the numbers on file run from 10 to 15 against an actual 6, with Eisen alone logging 15 twice. I guess that's what happens when you lose your Hall of Fame-caliber quarterback. The field then went the other way on three teams who made the playoffs, two who made the Super Bowl and one who ultimately won the league championship: New England (11 calls, 5 wins low, but won 14), Seattle (7 calls, 5 low, but won 14...and the Super Bowl) and Denver (6 calls, 5 low, but won 14).

Site-wide, season win totals grade at an average accuracy of 49.2 from 269 calls, pretty much a coin flip, and the thinnest-margin category these media sources publish.

Awards are just as ugly: Award Picks average 21.8 accuracy over 353 graded calls. The 2025 MVP ballot was the field's best work of the group, with 27 of 101 picks on winner Matthew Stafford; the offensive rookie ballot split 12 ways, with Tetairoa McMillan taking 5 of 29 picks in a tie with Ashton Jeanty, who ultimately didn't have any wild success last year.

No Reversals

While accuracy may be a problem, at least these NFL pundits are consistent. Nothing in this week's file registered as a pundit changing their mind. On a week where the grading queue was almost entirely retrospective draft cleanup, we weren't expecting anyone to suddenly think Cam Ward was going to fall in the draft, but it's worth mentioning we didn't see anything like it.

David Harrison still leads the overall board at a 54.76 MissedTakes Score and 71.1 accuracy on 127 graded takes, with Daniel Jeremiah the only established-confidence name in the top ten (251 graded, 27.29). On mock drafts specifically, Brockman and John Middlekauff share the top score at 50.00, though both on fewer than 40 graded picks. Full standings on the leaderboard.