Frelund picks Houston to beat Arizona by more than ten, the Giants over Washington, and Dallas to cover against Minnesota; she also expects the 49ers to make the playoffs as a wild card and has San Francisco winning 30-16 over Tennessee.

5 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

• Score PredictionsDec 11, 2025

  “I have thirty sixteen. So and you know, my mom and... your model is very conservative.”

  Scored 97.62a naive guess scored 73.88+28.97 skill
  How this was scored

  score:

  24-37

  skill:

  28.97

  they picked:

  SF

  season:

  2025

  accuracy:

  97.62

  baseline:

  73.88

  difficulty:

  1.22

  weeks in the season:

  18

  actual margin:

  13

  weeks left when called:

  4

  naive home margin:

  2.03

  predicted margin:

  14

  Think this is wrong?

• Game Outcome PicksDec 11, 2025

  “I'm picking Dallas to cover five and a half.”

  Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
  How this was scored

  won:

  MIN

  score:

  34-26

  skill:

  0

  they picked:

  DAL

  season:

  2025

  accuracy:

  0

  baseline:

  0

  naive pick:

  DAL

  difficulty:

  1.22

  weeks in the season:

  18

  weeks left when called:

  4

  Think this is wrong?

• Game Outcome PicksDec 11, 2025

  “I'm just gonna go with Houston to win by more than ten.”

  Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
  How this was scored

  won:

  HOU

  score:

  20-40

  skill:

  0

  they picked:

  HOU

  season:

  2025

  accuracy:

  100

  baseline:

  100

  naive pick:

  HOU

  difficulty:

  1.22

  weeks in the season:

  18

  weeks left when called:

  4

  Think this is wrong?

• Playoff PicksDec 11, 2025

  “You know that they're gonna get in the as a wild card and face Green Bay in the first round”

  Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+122 skill
  How this was scored

  team:

  SF

  skill:

  122

  season:

  2025

  accuracy:

  100

  baseline:

  0

  naive said:

  false

  difficulty:

  1.22

  weeks in the season:

  18

  made playoffs:

  true

  weeks left when called:

  4

  Think this is wrong?

• Game Outcome PicksDec 11, 2025

  “My number two is a number two, as in the spread is number is two Washington and the Giants... I'm gonna take the Giants.”

  Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.

  Think this is wrong?