Cynthia Frelund· Dec 19, 2025
Freeland's model has the Chargers winning straight up in Dallas, the Texans winning big over the Raiders and going on to win the AFC South, the Lions beating the Steelers by six, the Saints beating the Jets, and the Packers beating the Bears; she also sees the AFC's Super Bowl representative being either Denver or Houston.
“My model has a straight up win for the Chargers.”
said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
8 checkable claims — 5 game outcome picks, 2 conference champions and 1 division winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 8 have settled, averaging 43.8 out of 100, against 37.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
8 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksGreen Bay PackersDec 19, 2025
Green Bay Packers to beat Bears
“Cause I like the Packers to cover... I just think that the Packers show the Bears why they're still the classes A division.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-117 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CHI
- score:
- 16-22
- skill:
- -117
- they picked:
- GB
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- CHI
- difficulty:
- 1.17
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 3
- Conference ChampionsHouston TexansDec 19, 2025
Houston Texans to reach the Super Bowl
“I think that the configuration of the super Bowl team for the AFC, it's going to be all defense... it's either the Broncos or the Texans.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE,SEA
- difficulty:
- 1.17
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 3
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Division WinnersHouston TexansDec 19, 2025
Houston Texans to win the division
“The Texans need it in order to ascend to the top of the ASC South, which I AFC South, which I anticipate that they end up doing.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 1.17
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 3
- won the division:
- no
- Conference ChampionsDenver BroncosDec 19, 2025
Denver Broncos to reach the Super Bowl
“I think that the configuration of the super Bowl team for the AFC, it's going to be all defense... it's either the Broncos or the Texans.”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 0+58.5 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 58.5
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE,SEA
- difficulty:
- 1.17
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 3
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- yes
- Game Outcome PicksHouston TexansDec 19, 2025
Houston Texans to beat Raiders
“Cynthia's picks to recap. She's got the Texans minus two touchdowns fourteen... they have an eighty one percent chance”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- HOU
- score:
- 21-23
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 1.17
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 3
- Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles ChargersDec 19, 2025
Los Angeles Chargers to beat Cowboys
“My model has a straight up win for the Chargers.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+117 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- LAC
- score:
- 34-17
- skill:
- 117
- they picked:
- LAC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- DAL
- difficulty:
- 1.17
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 3
- Game Outcome PicksNew Orleans SaintsDec 19, 2025
New Orleans Saints to beat Jets
“So it's four and a half points at home. The Saints are favored over the Jets, and I think what I've seen from Tyler Shuck in this situation...”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NO
- score:
- 6-29
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NO
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NO
- difficulty:
- 1.17
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 3
- Game Outcome PicksDetroit LionsDec 19, 2025
Detroit Lions to beat Steelers
“I have them only winning by six... Fifty seven percent”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- PIT
- score:
- 29-24
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- DET
- difficulty:
- 1.17
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 3
What others said about the same people
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Jake CielyTrade and Signing Calls · Romeo DoubsMiss · 0On a Fantasy Pros free-agency show, Jake Seely gave his projected 2026 landing spots for a long list of free agents, including Aaron Rodgers to Minnesota, Daniel Jones back to Indianapolis, Malik Willis to Miami, Alec Pierce to the Raiders, Mike Evans to the 49ers, Deebo Samuel to Pittsburgh, Kenneth Walker to Arizona, Breece Hall to Kansas City and Kyle Pitts and Dallas Goedert re-signing with their current teams.
- Scott BogmanMock Draft Picks · Olaivavega IoaneClose · 71He gave David Bailey to Tennessee at 4, Sonny Styles to Washington at 7, Caleb Downs to Cincinnati at 10, Carnell Tate to the Rams at 13, Denzel Boston to the Jets at 16, Kayden McDonald to Carolina at 19, Vega Ioane to the Chargers at 22, Peter Woods to Chicago at 25, Emmanuel Pregnon to Houston at 28 and Romello Height to Denver at 31, and insisted both Bailey and Downs are top-10 locks.
- Steve MenschMock Draft Picks · Caleb LomuClose · 62Making the even-numbered picks in the mock, he sent Arvell Reese to the Jets at No. 2, Spencer Fano to the Giants at 5, Jordan Tyson to the Saints at 8, a Tennessee cornerback to Miami at 11, Keldric Faulk to Baltimore at 14, Akheem Mesidor to Dallas at 20, Kenyon Sadiq to Philadelphia at 23, Caleb Banks to Buffalo at 26, Ty Simpson to the Rams at 29 and Chris Johnson to Seattle at 32, plus Caleb Lomu to Detroit at 17.
- Nick ShookTrade and Signing Calls · Breece HallMiss · 0Shook names Breece Hall, Jakobi Meyers and David Njoku as trade candidates, suggesting Hall could land with the Chargers and that the Raiders will move Meyers as sellers.
- Richard ShermanSeason Win Totals · Green Bay PackersClose · 40Sherman previewed every division: he picked Seattle to win the NFC West on a tiebreaker over San Francisco (both 11-11 wins), the Lions over the Packers in the North, the Eagles to run away with the East, Tampa Bay in the South, and Kansas City, Buffalo and the Ravens' division rivals in the AFC. He picked an Eagles–Chiefs Super Bowl with Philadelphia repeating, Joe Burrow for MVP, and gave a top-five power ranking.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Nick WrightGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Nick Wright expects the Bills to beat the Lions comfortably in the Thursday night home opener, with Josh Allen shredding a depleted Detroit secondary, and he also picks a workmanlike Chiefs win over the Colts on Sunday night. He further predicts Tyreek Hill will end up on the Chiefs by around Halloween.
- Richard ShermanGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Sherman ran through the entire Week 2 slate with winners and several exact final scores, picking Seattle, San Francisco, Buffalo, Houston, Chicago, New England, Jacksonville, Dallas, Kansas City, the Rams, Green Bay, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Las Vegas and Carolina. He also called Fred Warner the league's best middle linebacker and floated Parker Washington as a top-five receiver.
- Joe MarinoGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Marino predicts the Bills beat the Lions in the Thursday night home opener to go 2-0, and expects a shootout with Goff and Allen combining for over 600 passing yards (each with a good chance at 300+).
- Walter CherepinskyGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100In the Week 2 Thursday night game, he predicts the Bills beat the Lions 31-24, expecting Detroit's offense to bounce back but Buffalo to prevail, with Josh Allen thriving and James Cook struggling again.
- Richard ShermanGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Sherman previewed the AFC, picking the Bills, Chiefs, Ravens and Texans as division winners with Denver, New England and Jacksonville as wild cards, called several individual early-season games, and predicted a big year for Travis Hunter at cornerback.
- Richard ShermanGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Sherman picked the Seahawks to repeat as NFC West champs, Dallas to win the East, Detroit the North and Tampa Bay the South, with the Rams, 49ers and Bears as wild cards. He also gave records for each team's first four games and picked the Rams over the 49ers in Week 1.