Cynthia Frelund · Dec 19, 2025

Freeland's model has the Chargers winning straight up in Dallas, the Texans winning big over the Raiders and going on to win the AFC South, the Lions beating the Steelers by six, the Saints beating the Jets, and the Packers beating the Bears; she also sees the AFC's Super Bowl representative being either Denver or Houston.

“My model has a straight up win for the Chargers.”

said on air or in an interview · read the original →

8 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Game Outcome PicksDec 19, 2025
“Cynthia's picks to recap. She's got the Texans minus two touchdowns fourteen... they have an eighty one percent chance”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
HOU
score:
21-23
skill:
0
they picked:
HOU
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
naive pick:
HOU
difficulty:
1.17
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
3
Think this is wrong?
Game Outcome PicksDec 19, 2025
“My model has a straight up win for the Chargers.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+117 skill
How this was scored
won:
LAC
score:
34-17
skill:
117
they picked:
LAC
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
naive pick:
DAL
difficulty:
1.17
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
3
Think this is wrong?
Game Outcome PicksDec 19, 2025
“So it's four and a half points at home. The Saints are favored over the Jets, and I think what I've seen from Tyler Shuck in this situation...”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
NO
score:
6-29
skill:
0
they picked:
NO
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
naive pick:
NO
difficulty:
1.17
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
3
Think this is wrong?
Game Outcome PicksDec 19, 2025
“I have them only winning by six... Fifty seven percent”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
PIT
score:
29-24
skill:
0
they picked:
DET
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
naive pick:
DET
difficulty:
1.17
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
3
Think this is wrong?
Division WinnersDec 19, 2025
“The Texans need it in order to ascend to the top of the ASC South, which I AFC South, which I anticipate that they end up doing.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Game Outcome PicksDec 19, 2025
“Cause I like the Packers to cover... I just think that the Packers show the Bears why they're still the classes A division.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Conference ChampionsDec 19, 2025
“I think that the configuration of the super Bowl team for the AFC, it's going to be all defense... it's either the Broncos or the Texans.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Conference ChampionsDec 19, 2025
“I think that the configuration of the super Bowl team for the AFC, it's going to be all defense... it's either the Broncos or the Texans.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?