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Lance Zierlein· Jan 16, 2026

Lance picked the Patriots to beat the Texans 20-13, saying he could not see where Houston's offensive production would come from against New England's big, physical corners.

“I got the Patriots 20 to 13.”

said on air, transcribed by us · John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast) · read the original →

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 88.1 out of 100, against 76.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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1 checkable claim in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Score PredictionsNew England PatriotsJan 16, 2026

    New England Patriots 20 — Texans 13

    “I got the Patriots 20 to 13. ... my biggest concerns are no Nico and Ramon and, Trayvon Henderson. ... I'm trying to figure out where the yards come from.”

    Hit · 88Scored 88.1a naive guess scored 76.26+11.84 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    16-28
    skill:
    11.84
    they picked:
    NE
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    88.1
    baseline:
    76.26
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    12
    weeks left when called:
    0
    naive home margin:
    2.03
    predicted margin:
    7

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