Aaron Schatz· Jul 16, 2026
Presenting his FTN Football Almanac projections, Schatz/Shotts calls the Texans the clear best team in the AFC and AFC Super Bowl favorite, ranks Seahawks, Rams and Texans as the top three teams in DVOA, projects Bengals and Ravens as strong playoff teams in an easy AFC North schedule, calls Cleveland the worst team in the league, and pegs the Bears with a top-2 offense and the league's worst defense.
“There's enough of a gap between them and the rest of the AFC that they still look like the best team in the AFC.”
said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
14 checkable claims — 4 position group rankings, 3 playoff picks, 3 power rankings, 2 season win totals, 1 conference champion and 1 surprise team call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.
Of the 2 unsettled calls enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room on every one.
Where this call stands in the room
Baltimore Ravens · 2026 season · wins15 calls from 9 pundits between 9.8 wins and 13 wins. Aaron Schatz said 9.8 wins. the room's median is 12 wins. not settled yet
Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question. Where the dots land says where this take sits, not whether it is right — nothing here is settled yet. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.
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Who this take is about
14 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Position Group RankingsJul 16, 2026
“So to go from eighth to like fourteenth... You have them as a bottom three offense”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Power RankingsJul 16, 2026
“It's a pretty clear top three teams in the NFL for you too, in terms of DVOA, it's the Seahawks, Rams, and the Texans.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Position Group RankingsJul 16, 2026
“you have them as the second ranked offense and the worst defense in the league... You had the Packers as the fourth best offense and the twenty sixth best defense”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Surprise Team CallsArizona CardinalsJul 16, 2026
Arizona Cardinals to beat expectations
“The Cardinals were twenty third twenty third in overall Dvoa less rays the banner despite being the most injured team in the league. And they're going to be healthier this year”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Position Group RankingsJul 16, 2026
“you have them as the second ranked offense and the worst defense in the league. ... You had the Packers as the fourth best offense and the twenty sixth best defense”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Position Group RankingsJul 16, 2026
“It's offense. I mean, we have them projected with the top five offense.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Season Win TotalsCincinnati BengalsJul 16, 2026
Cincinnati Bengals to finish with 9.8 wins
“Your projection model has the Bengals as the third best chance to make the playoffs a strong bounce back season nine point eight wins”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Power RankingsJul 16, 2026
“to have him go from fifth to fourteenth, which is where they're projected... seventeenth and eighteenth overall in DVOWAY... the projections actually had the Dolphins at twenty sixth in DVOA... I was a little stunned that you had them thirty first in DVOA”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Season Win TotalsBaltimore RavensJul 16, 2026
Baltimore Ravens to finish with 9.8 wins
“And then the Ravens, who have the same win total projected.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Playoff PicksIndianapolis ColtsJul 16, 2026
Indianapolis Colts to make the playoffs
“You have them as a better than fifty percent chance to make the playoffs... in your models, the Colts are making the playoffs more often than not.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Power RankingsJul 16, 2026
“And Cleveland is the worst team in the league.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Playoff PicksBaltimore RavensJul 16, 2026
Baltimore Ravens to make the playoffs
“So I think that the Ravens and Cincinnati are both really good playoff playoff opportunities.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Conference ChampionsHouston TexansJul 16, 2026
Houston Texans to reach the Super Bowl
“You have the Texans as the AFC favorites. Your numbers say they have about twice the amount of odds to win the Super Bowl as any other AFC team.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Playoff PicksCincinnati BengalsJul 16, 2026
Cincinnati Bengals to make the playoffs
“So I think that the Ravens and Cincinnati are both really good playoff playoff opportunities.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Colin CowherdGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Cowherd repeats his claim that Caleb Williams will be viewed as a top four or five quarterback by the end of the season, restates his preseason pick of the Ravens to win their division, and expects a angry Houston defense to beat Cincinnati on Sunday.
- Chris BroussardGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Brew stood by the Lions as division winners and playoff team, picked the Texans over Cincinnati, the Bears over Minnesota, the Patriots to beat Pittsburgh with a solid Drake Maye game, flagged Jacksonville over Denver as his upset alert, and said he still feels good about the Ravens winning the AFC.
- Greg JenningsGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Jennings put the Cardinals up as his upset alert over Seattle, backed the Texans over Cincinnati and the Bears over Minnesota with chips, put two chips on Denver beating Jacksonville, and wrote a headline of the Packers beating the Jets; he also called the Bengals a playoff team and the Chiefs winners over Indianapolis.
- Nick WrightGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Wright stuck by his preseason call of a 12-5 Bills team that wins its division, picked the Jaguars to beat Denver outright, leaned Texans over Cincinnati, still has Atlanta as his deep sleeper, counts New England among his 14 playoff teams, and recalled pegging Washington for a 5-12 or 6-11 year with a bottom-six defense.
- Danny ParkinsGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsHit · 100Parkins picked the Giants to beat the Rams outright, backed Jacksonville over Denver, Cincinnati over Houston and Chicago over Minnesota in the chips segment, endorsed Buffalo as the AFC's Super Bowl representative, and predicted Deshaun Watson has started his last NFL game.
- Nick ShookGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensMiss · 0Shook said he would take the Steelers and Jaguars to win outright on the road, still expects the Chargers to beat the Raiders, and thinks Baltimore's run game will turn the Saints game into a double-digit Ravens win.
More position group rankings
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Rich EisenPosition Group RankingsClose · 75Eisen ranked his top five defenses remaining in the NFL playoffs, with the Texans first, Seahawks second, Broncos third, Bills fourth and Rams fifth.
- Gregg RosenthalPosition Group RankingsClose · 75In a snake draft of the NFL's best position groups, Rosenthal took the Eagles' tackles as the No. 1 group in the league, followed by the Steelers' edge rushers, Bengals receivers, Texans corners, Lions safeties, Rams defensive tackles, Broncos corners, Chiefs quarterbacks, Patriots corners and Seahawks defensive tackles. He also rated Ja'Marr Chase a top-two receiver and A.J. Brown a top-five receiver.
- Nick ShookPosition Group RankingsMiss · 0Shook's picks in the best-position-group draft: Buccaneers receivers (over the Bengals), Lions tackles, Ravens tight ends, Steelers interior offensive line, Lions running backs, Giants edge rushers, Ravens safeties, Commanders quarterbacks, Lions defensive tackles and Texans safeties. He also called Jordan Addison one of the league's best No. 2 receivers.
- Brandon GrahamPosition Group RankingsMiss · 0Graham ranked his top five wide receiver duos with the Eagles first, and predicted Philadelphia returns to the Super Bowl, the Rams make the playoffs again, and picked the Commanders' duo over the Cowboys' new pairing.
- Kyle BrandtPosition Group RankingsClose · 40Kyle Brandt ranked his top five NFL wide receiver duos, deliberately excluding newly formed pairings, with Cincinnati first and Tampa Bay fifth.
- Jamie ErdahlPosition Group Rankings · Los Angeles RamsHit · 80Erdahl ranked her top five wide receiver duos, putting Philadelphia first, Detroit above Minnesota, and Cincinnati fifth.