Bucky Brooks· Feb 16, 2026
In the joint top-10 mock, Brooks gave the Jets David Bailey at No. 2, Tennessee Arvell Reese at No. 4, Cleveland Spencer Fano at No. 6, New Orleans running back Jeremiah Love at No. 8 and Cincinnati safety Caleb Downs at No. 10.
“Welcome to Gotham. David Bailey is a jet.”
said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
5 checkable claims — 5 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 92 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pick2They said
2What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksDavid BaileyNew York JetsFeb 16, 2026
David Bailey to be picked at number 2
“I'm gonna give the Jets David Bailey from Texas Tech. I'm gonna give them a pass rusher... David Bailey is a jet.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 85 against a shuffle’s 50+35 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 35
- player:
- David Bailey
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 85
- Mock Draft PicksJeremiyah LoveNew Orleans SaintsFeb 16, 2026
Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 8
“you are up with New Orleans... I think Jeremiah Love will be the perfect fit in this situation.”
Hit · 81Scored 80.52 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 70 against a shuffle’s 50+20 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 20
- player:
- Jeremiyah Love
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 80.52
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 80.52
- predicted pick:
- 8
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 70
- Mock Draft PicksCaleb DownsCincinnati BengalsFeb 16, 2026
Caleb Downs to be picked at number 10
“Caleb Downs is the pick for the Cincinnati Bengals.”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 70 against a shuffle’s 50+20 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 20
- player:
- Caleb Downs
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 10
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 70
- Mock Draft PicksArvell ReeseTennessee TitansFeb 16, 2026
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 4
“That's RVL Reese... I'm gonna go with Rvill Reese being a guy that the Tennessee Titans can build around.”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 70 against a shuffle’s 50+20 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 20
- player:
- Arvell Reese
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 70
- Mock Draft PicksSpencer FanoCleveland BrownsFeb 16, 2026
Spencer Fano to be picked at number 6
“I'm gonna take Spenser for No with the Citys for the Cleveland Browns.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 70 against a shuffle’s 50+20 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 20
- player:
- Spencer Fano
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 6
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 70
What others said about the same people
- Tyler SullivanDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100An unsigned CBS Sports preseason review grading all 32 teams, which along the way stakes out a number of depth-chart calls for Week 1 and beyond — including Deshaun Watson opening as Cleveland's starter, Fernando Mendoza taking over as Las Vegas' QB1 by season's end, and Minnesota's Murray-Wentz-McCarthy quarterback order.
- Ryan WilsonDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100A CBS Sports piece states Deshaun Watson has won Cleveland's starting quarterback job for Week 1 with Shedeur Sanders next in line, while arguing Watson will not play like even an average NFL quarterback and that none of the Browns' current young passers should stop them from drafting a first-round quarterback next April.
- Rafael ZamoranoDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100Zamorano argues the Browns do not have a franchise quarterback and that it's unlikely Watson or Sanders is their long-term answer.
- John BreechDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100The unsigned newsletter author says Deshaun Watson will start Week 1 at Jacksonville, notes he voted for Jaxson Dart as his breakout QB rather than Caleb Williams, and says newly signed Daniel Carlson is the favorite to win the Saints' kicking job.
- Mark ChichesterDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100Unsigned PFF piece reporting/asserting that Deshaun Watson will be Cleveland's Week 1 starting quarterback against Jacksonville, with Shedeur Sanders behind him on the depth chart.
- Zachary PerelesDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100The unsigned recap argues Sanders clearly outplayed Watson and, even if Sanders isn't named the Week 1 starter, predicts both quarterbacks will see significant playing time in 2026.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Dillon ThienemanClose · 57Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Jeff CavanaughMock Draft Picks · Lorenzo StylesMiss · 1Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40.
- Scott BogmanMock Draft Picks · Olaivavega IoaneClose · 71He gave David Bailey to Tennessee at 4, Sonny Styles to Washington at 7, Caleb Downs to Cincinnati at 10, Carnell Tate to the Rams at 13, Denzel Boston to the Jets at 16, Kayden McDonald to Carolina at 19, Vega Ioane to the Chargers at 22, Peter Woods to Chicago at 25, Emmanuel Pregnon to Houston at 28 and Romello Height to Denver at 31, and insisted both Bailey and Downs are top-10 locks.
- Steve MenschMock Draft Picks · Caleb LomuClose · 62Making the even-numbered picks in the mock, he sent Arvell Reese to the Jets at No. 2, Spencer Fano to the Giants at 5, Jordan Tyson to the Saints at 8, a Tennessee cornerback to Miami at 11, Keldric Faulk to Baltimore at 14, Akheem Mesidor to Dallas at 20, Kenyon Sadiq to Philadelphia at 23, Caleb Banks to Buffalo at 26, Ty Simpson to the Rams at 29 and Chris Johnson to Seattle at 32, plus Caleb Lomu to Detroit at 17.