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Brendan Donahue· Apr 18, 2023

Donahue's most recent mock draft projected first-round selections for the 2023 NFL Draft, including Bryce Young No. 1 to Carolina, C.J. Stroud No. 2 to Houston, a Cardinals trade down to No. 11 and a Titans trade up to No. 3 for Anthony Richardson.

Another mock draft expert, Brendan Donahue, predicts the Titans will trade up to No. 3 overall to select Anthony Richardson (QB, Florida)

published in writing · Sharp Football Analysis · read the original (as archived Apr 21, 2023) → · live page (has changed since this capture)

33 checkable claims — 31 mock draft picks and 2 team draft slot calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 58 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

18 of 33 have settled so far, averaging 77.1 out of 100, against 49.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Their call against what happened

overall pick
first-round pick (picks 1–31)They said
32What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

33 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Joey Porter Jr. to be picked “first-round pick” (picks 1–31)

    has the Steelers predicted to draft Joey Porter Jr. (CB, Penn State) with their first-round pick according to his most recent mock draft.

    Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 98.64 against a shuffle’s 50+48.64 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2023
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    48.64
    player:
    Joey Porter Jr.
    season:
    2023
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    95.76
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    32
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    95.76
    predicted pick:
    first-round pick (picks 1–31)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    98.64

    Think this is wrong?

  • Nolan Smith to be picked “first-round pick” (picks 1–31)

    also has the Falcons predicted to draft Nolan Smith (EDGE, Alabama) with their first-round pick according to his most recent mock draft.

    Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 98.64 against a shuffle’s 50+48.64 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2023
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    48.64
    player:
    Nolan Smith
    season:
    2023
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    30
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    first-round pick (picks 1–31)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    98.64

    Think this is wrong?

  • Darnell Wright to be picked “first-round pick” (picks 1–31)

    has the Patriots predicted to draft Darnell Wright (OT, Tennessee) with their first-round pick according to his most recent mock draft.

    Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 98.64 against a shuffle’s 50+48.64 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2023
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    48.64
    player:
    Darnell Wright
    season:
    2023
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    10
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    first-round pick (picks 1–31)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    98.64

    Think this is wrong?

  • Zay Flowers to be picked “first-round pick” (picks 1–31)

    has the Vikings predicted to draft Zay Flowers (WR, Boston College) with their first-round pick according to his most recent mock draft.

    Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 98.64 against a shuffle’s 50+48.64 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2023
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    48.64
    player:
    Zay Flowers
    season:
    2023
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    22
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    first-round pick (picks 1–31)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    98.64

    Think this is wrong?

  • Adetomiwa Adebawore to be picked “first-round pick” (picks 1–31)

    has the Sants predicted to draft Adetomiwa Adebawore (DL, Northwestern) with their first-round pick according to his most recent mock draft.

    Miss · 3Scored 3.26 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 98.64 against a shuffle’s 50+48.64 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2023
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    48.64
    player:
    Adetomiwa Adebawore
    season:
    2023
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    3.26
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    110
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    3.26
    predicted pick:
    first-round pick (picks 1–31)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    98.64

    Think this is wrong?

  • Tyree Wilson to be picked at number 11

    has the Cardinals predicted to draft Tyree Wilson (EDGE, Texas Tech) after trading down to the No. 11 pick according to his most recent mock draft.

    Hit · 84Scored 84.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 98.64 against a shuffle’s 50+48.64 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2023
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    48.64
    player:
    Tyree Wilson
    season:
    2023
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    84.09
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    7
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    84.09
    predicted pick:
    11
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    98.64

    Think this is wrong?

  • Kelee Ringo to be picked at number 30

    Kalee Ringo (DB, Georgia) with the No. 30 pick according to his most recent mock draft.

    Miss · 4Scored 3.88 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 98.64 against a shuffle’s 50+48.64 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2023
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    48.64
    player:
    Kelee Ringo
    season:
    2023
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    3.88
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    105
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    3.88
    predicted pick:
    30
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    98.64

    Think this is wrong?

  • C.J. Stroud to be picked at number 2

    Brendan Donahue, has the Texans predicted to draft C.J. Stroud (QB, Ohio State) with the second pick

    Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 98.64 against a shuffle’s 50+48.64 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2023
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    48.64
    player:
    C.J. Stroud
    season:
    2023
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    2
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    2
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    98.64

    Think this is wrong?

  • Will Anderson Jr. to be picked at number 5

    has the Seahawks predicted to draft Will Anderson (EDGE, Alabama) with the fifth pick

    Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 98.64 against a shuffle’s 50+48.64 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2023
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    48.64
    player:
    Will Anderson Jr.
    season:
    2023
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    91.7
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    3
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    91.7
    predicted pick:
    5
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    98.64

    Think this is wrong?

  • Jordan Addison to be picked at number 20

    Jordan Addison (WR, Boston College) with the 20th pick according to his most recent mock draft.

    Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 98.64 against a shuffle’s 50+48.64 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2023
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    48.64
    player:
    Jordan Addison
    season:
    2023
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    87.81
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    23
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    87.81
    predicted pick:
    20
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    98.64

    Think this is wrong?

  • Arizona Cardinals to pick at number 11

    has the Cardinals predicted to draft Tyree Wilson (EDGE, Texas Tech) after trading down to the No. 11 pick

    Hit · 81Scored 80.52a naive guess scored 11.97+137.11 skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    ARI
    draft:
    2023
    naive:
    they picked 55 the year before
    skill:
    137.11
    season:
    2023
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    80.52
    baseline:
    11.97
    actual pick:
    6
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    predicted pick:
    11
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Devon Witherspoon to be picked at number 6

    has the Lions predicted to draft Devon Witherspoon (CB, Illinois) with the sixth pick

    Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 98.64 against a shuffle’s 50+48.64 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2023
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    48.64
    player:
    Devon Witherspoon
    season:
    2023
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    95.76
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    5
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    95.76
    predicted pick:
    6
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    98.64

    Think this is wrong?

  • Hendon Hooker to be picked at number 18

    Hendon Hooker (QB, Tennessee) with the 18th pick according to his most recent mock draft.

    Miss · 11Scored 11.46 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 98.64 against a shuffle’s 50+48.64 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2023
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    48.64
    player:
    Hendon Hooker
    season:
    2023
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    11.46
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    68
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    11.46
    predicted pick:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    98.64

    Think this is wrong?

  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba to be picked at number 12

    Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, Ohio State) with the 12th pick according to his most recent mock draft.

    Close · 71Scored 70.71 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 98.64 against a shuffle’s 50+48.64 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2023
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    48.64
    player:
    Jaxon Smith-Njigba
    season:
    2023
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    70.71
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    20
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    70.71
    predicted pick:
    12
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    98.64

    Think this is wrong?

  • Jalen Carter to be picked at number 10

    has the Eagles predicted to draft Jalen Carter (DL, Georgia) with the No. 10 pick

    Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 98.64 against a shuffle’s 50+48.64 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2023
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    48.64
    player:
    Jalen Carter
    season:
    2023
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    95.76
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    9
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    95.76
    predicted pick:
    10
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    98.64

    Think this is wrong?

  • Bryce Young to be picked at number 1

    Brendan Donahue, also has the Panthers predicted to draft Bryce Young (QB, Alabama) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.

    Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 98.64 against a shuffle’s 50+48.64 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2023
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    48.64
    player:
    Bryce Young
    season:
    2023
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    1
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    98.64

    Think this is wrong?

  • Tennessee Titans to pick at number 3

    predicts the Titans will trade up to No. 3 overall to select Anthony Richardson

    Close · 71Scored 70.71a naive guess scored 73.84-6.26 skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    TEN
    draft:
    2023
    naive:
    they picked 18 the year before
    skill:
    -6.26
    season:
    2023
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    70.71
    baseline:
    73.84
    actual pick:
    11
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    predicted pick:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Anthony Richardson to be picked at number 3

    Brendan Donahue, predicts the Titans will trade up to No. 3 overall to select Anthony Richardson (QB, Florida)

    Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 98.64 against a shuffle’s 50+48.64 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2023
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    48.64
    player:
    Anthony Richardson
    season:
    2023
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    95.76
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    4
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    95.76
    predicted pick:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    98.64

    Think this is wrong?

  • Peter Skoronski to be picked “1st round pick”

    has the Jets predicted to draft Peter Skoronski (OL, Northwestern) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Anton Harrison to be picked “1st round pick”

    has the Chiefs predicted to draft Anton Harrison (OT, Oklahoma) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Christian Gonzalez to be picked “1st round pick”

    has the Raiders selecting Christian Gonzalez (CB, Oregon) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Broderick Jones to be picked “1st round pick”

    also has the Commanders predicted to draft Broderick Jones (OT, Georgia) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Dalton Kincaid to be picked “1st round pick”

    has the Chargers predicted to draft Dalton Kincaid (TE, Utah) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Paris Johnson Jr. to be picked “1st round pick”

    also has the Bears predicted to draft Paris Johnson Jr. with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Bijan Robinson to be picked “1st round pick”

    has the Cowboys predicted to draft Bijan Robinson (RB, Texas) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Lukas Van Ness to be picked “1st round pick”

    has the Packers predicted to draft Lukas Van Ness (EDGE, Iowa) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Will Levis to be picked “1st round pick”

    has the Colts predicted to draft Will Levis (QB, Kentucky) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Brian Branch to be picked “1st round pick”

    has the Bengals predicted to draft Brian Branch (DB, Alabama) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Bryan Bresee to be picked “1st round pick”

    has the Bills predicted to draft Bryan Bresee (DL, Clemson) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Quentin Johnston to be picked “1st round pick”

    has the Giants predicted to draft Quentin Johnston (WR, TCU) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Deonte Banks to be picked “1st round pick”

    also has the Ravens predicted to draft Deonte Banks (CB, Maryland) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Michael Mayer to be picked “1st round pick”

    has the Jaguars predicted to draft Michael Mayer (TE, Notre Dame) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Myles Murphy to be picked “1st round pick”

    has the Buccaneers predicted to draft Myles Murphy (EDGE, Clemson) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

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