Marcus Mosher · Nov 26, 2024

Mosher's Week 13 power rankings keep the Lions at No. 1 and move the Broncos into the top 10, while also projecting Detroit for the NFC North and top NFC seed, Houston to win the AFC South, Seattle to win the NFC West and host a playoff game, playoff spots for Green Bay, Denver and the Chargers, and nine-plus wins for Tampa Bay.

“The Packers are a lock to be in the playoffs and will be one of the toughest wild-card teams we've seen in recent years.”

published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived Nov 27, 2024) →

The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.

10 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Team Draft Slot CallsNov 26, 2024
“the Raiders need to land a top-three pick in the 2025 NFL Draft to find their next franchise quarterback”
Scored 87.81a naive guess scored 64.84+30.55 skill
How this was scored
team:
LV
draft:
2025
naive:
they picked 13 the year before
skill:
30.55
season:
2024
zero at:
32
accuracy:
87.81
baseline:
64.84
actual pick:
6
difficulty:
1.33
weeks in the season:
18
predicted pick:
top-three pick (picks 1–3)
weeks left when called:
6
Think this is wrong?
Playoff PicksNov 26, 2024
“The Packers are a lock to be in the playoffs and will be one of the toughest wild-card teams we've seen in recent years.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
GB
skill:
0
season:
2024
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
naive said:
true
difficulty:
1.33
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
true
weeks left when called:
6
Think this is wrong?
Playoff PicksNov 26, 2024
“Denver's defense has been incredible this season, and it is well on its way to earning a Wild Card spot in the AFC.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+133 skill
How this was scored
team:
DEN
skill:
133
season:
2024
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
naive said:
false
difficulty:
1.33
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
true
weeks left when called:
6
Think this is wrong?
Playoff PicksNov 26, 2024
“The Chargers are still a contender in the AFC and should have no problem being the No. 5 or No. 6 seed in the conference.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+133 skill
How this was scored
team:
LAC
skill:
133
season:
2024
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
naive said:
false
difficulty:
1.33
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
true
weeks left when called:
6
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsNov 26, 2024
“With a favorable schedule coming up, Tampa Bay could easily get to nine or more wins this season.”
Scored 80a naive guess scored 75+6.65 skill
How this was scored
team:
TB
naive:
8.75
skill:
6.65
what happened:
10
season:
2024
zero at:
5
accuracy:
80
baseline:
75
predicted:
9
difficulty:
1.33
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
6
Think this is wrong?
Power RankingsNov 26, 2024
“Here are our updated power rankings going into Week 13 of the 2024 season”
Scored 97.73a naive guess scored 67.38+40.37 skill
How this was scored
skill:
40.37
method:
spearman
season:
2024
accuracy:
97.73
baseline:
67.38
difficulty:
1.33
weeks in the season:
18
teams ranked:
32
weeks left when called:
6
Think this is wrong?
Division WinnersNov 26, 2024
“With a 10-1 record, the Lions are well on their way to winning the NFC North and the No. 1 seed in the NFC.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Division WinnersNov 26, 2024
“Houston will win the AFC South, but this team is not a Super Bowl contender.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Division WinnersNov 26, 2024
“And with back-to-back divisional wins, they've set themselves up well to win the NFC West and host a home playoff game.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Seeding, Byes and Home FieldNov 26, 2024
“the Lions are well on their way to winning the NFC North and the No. 1 seed in the NFC”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?