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Keith Cummings· Sep 18, 2026

Cummings predicts Denver cleans things up and wins in overtime on a Wil Lutz field goal.

a late touchdown run from Bo Nix forces this one into overtime where Wil Lutz nails a 52-yard field goal to win it

published in writing · Sports Illustrated · read the original →

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 90.5 out of 100, against 82.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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1 checkable claim in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Denver Broncos 30 — Jaguars 27

    Pick : Broncos 30, Jaguars 27

    Hit · 90Scored 90.48a naive guess scored 82.1+16.24 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    13-20
    skill:
    16.24
    they picked:
    DEN
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    90.48
    baseline:
    82.1
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    7
    weeks left when called:
    17
    naive home margin:
    -0.52
    predicted margin:
    3

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